cser.ac.uk

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# CSER

Centre for the Study of Existential Risk

## Sitemaps

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## Posts

- [Explore our Work](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/)
- [CSER April 2026 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-april-2026-newsletter/) - In this Month’s Newsletter: April 2026 This month, CSER reflects on a turbulent global landscape as Director S. M. Amadae addresses the escalating conflicts in Venezuela and Iran, highlighting the governance failures and unilateral decision‑making that continue to amplify catastrophic risk. The newsletter also marks a major milestone with the launch of CSER’s new PhD
- ["We are currently clean on OPSEC": Why JD Can't Encrypt](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/we-are-currently-clean-on-opsec-why-jd-cant-encrypt/) - Abstract We analyse the 2025 Signalgate leak of sensitive US military information by the Trump administration, addressing why confidentiality was violated (messages leaked to the press) in spite of encryption (Signal), to deepen the socio-technical considerations when designing and deploying encryption. First, we use applied pi-calculus to formally model the boutique secure facility setup requested
- [Summer programme: Historical Dimensions of AI, Power & Catastrophic Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/summer-programme-historical-dimensions-of-ai-power-catastrophic-risk/) - Join Yuval Noah Harari and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) for an intensive five-day exploration of how artificial intelligence is reshaping fundamental aspects of human civilisation. The five-day programme will explore how artificial intelligence is reshaping fundamental aspects of human civilization. It brings together diverse perspectives from history, philosophy, economics, geopolitics,
- [Charlotte Hammer awarded Springboard funding to investigate drivers of infectious disease](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/charlotte-hammer-awarded-springboard-funding-to-investigate-drivers-of-infectious-disease/) - Charlotte Hammer, Assistant Professor at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), has been named one of 55 early career researchers to receive a Springboard Award from the Academy of Medical Sciences, as part of a £6.7 million investment supporting researchers across 38 UK institutions. The awards are part of the Academy’s Springboard
- [CSER Conference Call for Abstracts Open!](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-conference-call-for-abstracts-open/) - We’re pleased to announce the call for submissions for poster presentations has opened for the CSER's Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk, taking place in central Cambridge on 17th - 18th September 2026! The Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk (CCCR 2026) aims to bring together the existential and catastrophic risk community, with a focus this year
- [Reporting trends and seasonality in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News (DONs) across 1996–2023](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reporting-trends-and-seasonality-in-the-world-health-organizations-disease-outbreak-news-dons-across-1996-2023/) - Abstract The Disease Outbreak News (DONs), which are published by the World Health Organization, are used in outbreak surveillance, management and research as official reports of disease outbreaks worldwide. This study analyzed datasets of the DON created by Carlson et al. (2023) and Weets et al. (2025) to understand reporting behavior in DONs published across
- [Results from SCORE Project Published in Nature Special Collection](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/results-from-score-project-published-in-nature-special-collection/) - Results from the Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE) project, a major international collaboration aimed at improving research credibility and repeatability, are now available in a special collection in Nature. The SCORE project brings together hundreds of researchers worldwide to evaluate the reproducibility, robustness, and replicability of scientific findings across the social and
- [Meet the Researcher: Vanessa Burns](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/meet-the-researcher-vanessa-burns/) - Dr Vanessa Burns, Teaching Associate Dr Vanessa Burns is a political scientist with research interests in resilience and adaptation to climate change, extreme climate change, environmental governance, and environmental justice. Her work is interdisciplinary, speaking to work in law, policy, and the natural sciences. Dr Burns’ independent research focuses on climate change in the Coral
- [CSER March 2026 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-march-2026-newsletter/) - In this Month’s Newsletter: March 2026 This month, CSER highlights Anthony Torres-Ruesta’s selection to attend the 75th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting, recognising his interdisciplinary work on AI and global health risks. The newsletter also features new research on AI and biological weapons, population responses to natural hazards, and expert commentary on global energy challenges. Additional
- [Anthony Torres-Ruesta selected to attend 2026 Lindau Nobel Meeting](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/anthony-torres-ruesta-selected-to-attend-2026-lindau-nobel-meeting/) - Anthony Torres-Ruesta, Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), has been selected to attend the 75th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting, taking place in June 2026. The Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings were established in 1951 as an international forum to exchange knowledge between nations, cultures and disciplines, fostering collaboration and advancing
- [A Labour of Harm: Artificial Intelligence and Biological Weapons Acquisition](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/a-labour-of-harm-artificial-intelligence-and-biological-weapons-acquisition/) - Abstract Discussions of artificial intelligence (AI) and biological weapons (BW) have largely focused on laboratory-facing capabilities, treating acquisition as a technical problem centred on pathogen design, experimental acceleration, or optimization. This emphasis risks compressing the work of BW acquisition into a narrow set of moments, obscuring the wider labour through which harmful capability has historically
- [The Monist special issue on existential risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/monist-special-issue-existential-risk/) - A new special issue of The Monist on the philosophy of existential risk has been published featuring articles from SJ Beard on moral concerns for future well-being and CSER alum Alex McLaughlin on climate change and nonideal justice. Read here
- [New Book: Managing Extreme Technological Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-book-managing-extreme-technological-risk/) - We are delighted to announce the publication of Managing Extreme Technological Risk edited by Catherine Rhodes. This book reflects on work done through the Managing Extreme Technological Risk (METR) project, a pioneering research programme within the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge. METR has been both an exercise in 'academic
- [Video: Reflections on the legacy of Sir Joseph Rotblat in a time of rising nuclear risk: the responsibility of scientists with Athene Donald](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-reflections-legacy-sir-joseph-rotblat-time-r/) - On 9th May, CSER and British Pugwash hosted a public lecture by Professor Dame Athene Donald. Athene Donald reflected on Sir Joseph Rotblat's enduring legacy in the face of increasing nuclear risks and the critical responsibilities of scientists in today's world. Athene Donald is Professor of Experimental Physics and Master of Churchill College. Athene was awarded a
- [World Trade, Development and Sustainability with Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Dr Kennedy Mbeva](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/world-trade-development-and-sustainability-dr-ngoz/) - Trade and investment flows are often criticised for their sustainability impacts, yet, if harnessed properly through cutting-edge international law and governance, trade can help rather than hinder the global sustainable development goals. On 19th July 2024, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization, and Dr Kennedy Mbeva, Research Associate at the Centre for
- [How would humans react to nuclear catastrophe?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-would-humans-react-nuclear-catastrophe/) - Adam Thomson, Director of the European Leadership Network (ELN), and CSER Research affiliate Paul Ingram wrote a comment piece for the European Leadership Network about how humans would react to nuclear catastrophe. "The cascading damage to human relations - social, economic, and political - could be just as destructive as the physical consequences. These social,
- [CSER seminar with Nils Gilman](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/seminar-nils-gilman/) - As part of the CSER seminar series, we are hosting a seminar with the author and Executive Vice President of the Berggruen Institute, Nils Gilman. Nils will be talking about his new book co-authored with Jonathan S. Blake, Children of a Modest Star: Planetary Thinking for an Age of Crises. Nils Gilman and his co-author
- [Geopolitics Is Forcing Africa’s Hand on Climate Diplomacy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/geopolitics-is-forcing-africas-hand-on-climate-diplomacy/) - Kennedy Mbeva wrote an article for Back Channel about how the African continent could proactively overhaul its approach to climate.
- [Kennedy Mbeva joins IPCC authors](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/kennedy-mbeva-joins-ipcc-authors/) - CSER is pleased to announce Kennedy Mbeva is serving as a key member of the Working Groups drafting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). As lead author of Chapter 4 on Sustainable Development and Mitigation, Kennedy said "I hope the AR7 report will provide insights into how to close the
- [A Horizon Scan of AI and Higher Education: Fourteen Issues That May Transform the Sector](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/a-horizon-scan-of-ai-and-higher-education-fourteen-issues-that-may-transform-the-sector/) - Abstract AI, and especially Generative AI, are profoundly affecting higher education, challenging longstanding philosophical, pedagogical, cultural, and economic assumptions and reshaping its core practices. Much current research is trying to understand and assess these impacts; however, future trends and developments could be even more disruptive for both faculty and students. This paper provides a longer-term
- [Stay-or-relocate model (STORM): An agent-based population displacement simulator applied to a multi-phase volcanic eruption scenario](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stay-or-relocate-model-storm-an-agent-based-population-displacement-simulator-applied-to-a-multi-phase-volcanic-eruption-scenario/) - Abstract Households are central to societal functionality and may be impacted directly or indirectly by natural hazard events, resulting in the displacement of residents. Emergency management practitioners and policy decision-makers require adaptable decision support tools capable of accounting for fine-scale variations in hazard exposure, vulnerability and demographics across the emergency response and recovery periods. Responding
- [Governing Synthetic Biology](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/governing-synthetic-biology/) - This primer provides students from diverse fields with an overview of the social, political and ethical dimensions of synthetic biology. It also encourages them to think creatively and critically about their ambitions for the field of synthetic biology, and to identify their own possible roles in the governance and oversight of this technology.
- [CSER February 2026 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-february-2026-newsletter/) - In this Month’s Newsletter: February 2026 This month, CSER launches a new open online course, Nuclear Weapons: Planetary Risks and Human Consequences, led by S. M. Amadae, exploring the role of nuclear weapons in global security and democratic engagement. The newsletter also features new research on responsible mathematical practice, AI-assisted decision-making in conflict, and climate
- [British International Studies Association (BISA) Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/british-international-studies-association-bisa-con/) - Kennedy Mbeva will present the paper Exploring Frontiers: Demographic Change and Global Existential Risks at the Ethics and World Politics: the Anthropocene, Mobilities and Neocolonialism panel at the British International Studies Association (BISA) Conference. The BISA conference brings together a worldwide community of specialists to discuss, promote and develop International Studies.
- [Life Science Leadership Summit 2024](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/life-science-leadership-summit-2024/) - Lalitha Sundaram will be speaking on a panel about the changing landscape of the biotech sector and national security at the BioIndustry Association Life Science Leadership Summit 2024. BioIndustry Association Life Science Leadership Summit 2024 BIA’s Life Science Leadership Summit is a unique and exclusive event, building on our strengths of great thought leadership, support
- [Balancing long-term and short-term strategies in a sustainability game](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/balancing-long-term-and-short-term-strategies-sust/) - CSER Research affiliate Sabin Roman and former visitor Francesco Bertolotti wrote a paper about balancing long-term and short-term strategies for achieveing sustainability goals using a game. Read full paper
- [A note on Pablo Suarez](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/note-pablo-suarez/) - All at CSER are saddened to hear of the unexpected passing of our Affiliate, Pablo Suarez. Over the past three years, Pablo has been a generous collaborator, teaching us to think and work differently by sharing his engaging and creative approaches to communicating risk. The wealth of experience he brought to his work, from systems
- [Ken Mbeva joins Hughes Hall](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ken-mbeva-joins-hughes-hall/) - On 3rd October, Ken Mbeva joined Hughes Hall as a Research Fellow and Member of the Governing Body. At Hughes Hall, research fellows engage in various activities, regularly presenting their academic work to the wider College community and sharing their experiences with students, particularly postgraduates. The Governing Body, consisting of over 50 Fellows, holds
- [The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-implications-of-overshooting-1-5-c-on-earth-system-tipping-elements-a-review/) - Abstract Due to insufficient emission reductions in recent years, it is increasingly likely that global warming will exceed the 1.5 °C temperature limit in the late 2020s or 2030s. As a result, several Earth system tipping elements could, at least temporarily, have their tipping points surpassed, posing risks of large-scale and profound structural change. Tipping
- [Anthony Torres-Ruesta selected for the 2026 Johns Hopkins Class of the Emerging Leaders in Biosecurity Fellowship](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/anthony-torres-ruesta-selected-for-the-2026-johns-hopkins-class-of-the-emerging-leaders-in-biosecurity-fellowship/) - CSER Research Associate Anthony Torres-Ruesta has been selected for the 2026 Class of the Emerging Leaders in Biosecurity Fellowship by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. The fellowship offers professionals the chance to develop their expertise, grow their professional networks, and strengthen leadership skills through a programme of events organised by the Center. The
- [26 January 2026: How do Indigenous people know events before they happen?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/26-january-2026-how-do-indigenous-people-know-events-before-they-happen/) - How do Indigenous people know events before they happen? Navigating the Indigenous Knowledge Systems of Indigenous people Date: 26 January 2026, 2 - 3pm UK time Venue: Seminar Room B (First floor) 17 Mill Lane Cambridge This talk offers a critical lens on understanding how Indigenous science (Indigenous knowledge systems) is a crucial tool for
- [Where Are We Going? The History of Ideas Podcast with David Runciman](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/where-are-we-going-the-history-of-ideas-podcast-with-david-runciman/) - S. M. Amadae talked to David Runciman on his podcast The History of Ideas about what nuclear weapons and the prospect of nuclear war have done to the human condition.
- [Flipping the classroom to generate learning content: students as authors of a textbook on planetary risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/flipping-the-classroom-to-generate-learning-content-students-as-authors-of-a-textbook-on-planetary-risk/) - Abstract Context: The case study was conducted at the University of Helsinki with a cohort of 33 master's students enrolled in a 10-credit module on International Politics. The course combined lectures and writing workshops aimed at having students producing a publishable textbook on nuclear weapons and planetary risk. This experimental class design was motivated by
- [New open online course examines nuclear weapons and global security](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-open-online-course-examines-nuclear-weapons-and-global-security/) - S. M. Amadae, Director of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, has led the launch of a new, open online course, Nuclear Weapons: Planetary Risks and Human Consequences. Developed by S. M. Amadae, Caro Carter and Kim Keskiivari, the course explores how nuclear weapons shape today’s security environment. Topics range from deterring conventional,
- [CSER Reading List](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-reading-list/) - Interested in learning more about global catastrophic risk? Explore the introductory reading list below: Understanding Risk and Resilience Will humans survive the century? BBC podcast featuring Anders Sandberg, Phil Torres, Karin Kuhlemann, SJ Beard, Lalitha Sundaram, Seth Baum Nudge by Cas Sunstein and Richard Thaler Why Catastrophic Threats Should Worry Us More by Martin Rees
- [Polycrisis Research and Action Roadmap](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/polycrisis-research-and-action-roadmap-2/) - The Cascade Insitute have released a new report on the polycrisis. This Roadmap, a collaboration between the Cascade Institute, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, and Constantin Arnscheidt from CSER, presents a plan to advance polycrisis analysis as an inclusive, credible, and recognized field of knowledge and practice. It
- [Polycrisis Research and Action Roadmap](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/polycrisis-research-and-action-roadmap/) - The Cascade Institute have released a new report on the polycrisis. This Roadmap, a collaboration between the Cascade Institute, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, and Constantin Arnscheidt from CSER, presents a plan to advance polycrisis analysis as an inclusive, credible, and recognized field of knowledge and practice. It
- [2024 ESG Forum on ‘Re-imagining Earth System Governance in an Era of Polycrisis’](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/2024-esg-forum-re-imagining-earth-system-governanc/) - Kennedy Mbeva will talk on two panels co-organised by the Taskforce on Climate Governance at the 2024 ESG Forum on ‘Re-imagining Earth System Governance in an Era of Polycrisis’. 15th October, 12pm: Potent Threat? Investment Arbitration and Just Transition in the Global South Reconciling the imperatives of meeting global climate goals while ensuring justice and sustainable
- [Rate-induced biosphere collapse in the Daisyworld model](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/rate-induced-biosphere-collapse-in-the-daisyworld-model/) - Abstract There is much interest in the phenomenon of rate-induced tipping, where a system changes abruptly when forcings change faster than some critical rate. Here, we demonstrate and analyze rate-induced tipping in the classic “Daisyworld” model. The Daisyworld model considers a hypothetical planet inhabited only by two species of daisies with different reflectivities and is
- [28th May 2025; Fragile states and the governance of global catastrophic risk seminar](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/fragile-states-and-the-governance-of-global-catastrophic-risk-seminar-28th-may-2025/) - Fragile states and the governance of global catastrophic risk Date: 28 May 2025, 2-3pm Venue: Syndics Building & Online Global catastrophic risks—including climate extremes, pandemics, large-scale conflict, and unintended consequences of advanced AI—pose existential threats to societies and economies worldwide. Effective governance of these risks is essential to sustain development progress and protect future generations.
- [“Embedded developmentalism”: normative and institutional responses to the global catastrophic risk of underdevelopment](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/embedded-developmentalism-normative-and-institutional-responses-to-the-global-catastrophic-risk-of-underdevelopment/) - Kennedy Mbeva and Reuben Makomere published the article '“Embedded developmentalism”: normative and institutional responses to the global catastrophic risk of underdevelopment.' The article was published as part of the Special Issue: 50 Year Anniversary of the Call for a New International Economic Order edited by Matthew Mabefam, PhD and Susan Engel . It revisits the
- [Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/systemic-contributions-to-global-catastrophic-risk/) - In this paper, the authors present a conceptual framework illustrating how emergent features of the global system, such as systemic sources of risk and potential worst-case outcomes, contribute to the threat of global catastrophe. Technical summary Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, and many different terms and concepts have been used to
- [3 September 2025: Hidden Correlations and Systemic Risk in Global Food System Vulnerability seminar](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/3-september-2025-hidden-correlations-and-systemic-risk-in-global-food-system-vulnerability-seminar/) - Hidden Correlations and Systemic Risk in Global Food System Vulnerability Seminar Date: 3rd September 2025, 5.30 - 6.30pm UK time Venue: Syndics Room & Online Global food systems face growing threats from unpredictable catastrophic events like volcanic eruptions, nuclear incidents, and geopolitical conflicts. These shocks can simultaneously disrupt agricultural production, transportation networks, and commodity markets
- [Food trade disruption after global catastrophes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/food-trade-disruption-after-global-catastrophes/) - Abstract The global food trade system is resilient to minor disruptions but vulnerable to major ones. Major shocks can arise from global catastrophic risks, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (e.g. nuclear war) or global catastrophic infrastructure loss (e.g. due to severe geomagnetic storms or a global pandemic). We use a network model to examine
- [Global Tipping Points report](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-tipping-points-report/) - The 2025 Global Tipping Points Report is was released in October 2025, featuring Constantin Arnscheidt as contributing author. Bringing together 160 experts from 23 countries, it provides the latest update on where we stand relative to Earth’s critical climate and ecological thresholds, and on opportunities for transformative mitigation. It highlights both the dangers of crossing
- [CSER Report April - August 2025](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-april-august-2025/) - This report outlines our activities from April - August 2025. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [Global Environmental Politics amid Geopolitical Turbulence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-environmental-politics-amid-geopolitical-turbulence/) - Abstract Over the past decade, three overlapping trends have fundamentally reshaped and now characterize the global geopolitical order: the rise of emerging powers, increasing military conflicts, and growing international trade tensions. These features of the global order are deeply connected to global environmental politics (GEP) and governance, as a warming world spurs some aspects of
- [12 February 2026: Global Cambridge Munich - Fault Lines & Frontlines: Geopolitics at the Edge of 2026](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-cambridge-munich-fault-lines-frontlines-geopolitics-at-the-edge-of-2026/) - Thursday 12 February 2026, 6.30pm - 9.30pm CET Open to: Alumni and guests Location: Weitblick, Munich From shifting alliances and emerging powers to the impact of technology, climate, and conflict, this event will feature a distinguished panel including Professor Brendan Simms from the Centre for Geopolitics, John Raine CMG OBE (Jesus 1981), Prof. S. M.
- [CSER January 2026 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-january-2026-newsletter/) - In this Month’s Newsletter: January 2026 This month’s newsletter features a letter from CSER Director S. M. Amadae reflecting on global instability, geopolitical risk, and CSER’s mission to move beyond fear towards practical strategies for mitigating catastrophic threats. It also includes updates on CSER recruitment, the launch of the national Evidence Exchange network, responses to
- [Integrators at war: Mediating in AI-assisted resort-to-force decisions](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/mediating-in-ai-assisted-resort-to-force-decisions/) - A new paper by Maurice Chiodo and Dennis Müller explores the role of integrators in AI-assisted resort-to-force decision making. This is the second part of a three part series on "Developers, Integrators, Users". Part 1: Educating AI developers to prevent harmful path dependency in AI resort-to-force decision making. Abstract The integration of AI systems into
- [Educating AI developers to prevent harmful path dependency in AI resort-to-force decision making](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/educating-ai-developers-to-prevent-harmful-path-dependency-in-ai-resort-to-force-decision-making/) - Abstract The integration of AI technology into resort-to-force decision making would give machines influence over decisions determining the life or death of countless people. Despite this prospective impact on entire societies, many AI developers have only a rudimentary ethical understanding of their AI. Moreover, if AI development is ethically unreflective, minor flaws can spiral into
- [Stop admiring the problem: let’s get to work on reducing catastrophic risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stop-admiring-the-problem-lets-get-to-work-on-reducing-catastrophic-risk/) - A response to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2026 Doomsday Clock announcement from the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge In a year when the Doomsday Clock was set just 4 seconds closer to midnight, the announcement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists included some optimism about
- [New national network Evidence Exchange to enable civil and public servants to learn and connect with research organisations.](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-national-network-evidence-exchange-to-enable-civil-and-public-servants-to-learn-and-connect-with-research-organisations/) - The Centre for Science and Policy at the University of Cambridge will lead a consortium to develop new UK-wide infrastructure and networks which will enable more universities and research organisations to offer ‘Policy to Research’ opportunities for civil and public servants. This is funded by a new £3.75m grant from the Economic and Social Research
- [Why Regional Initiatives Are Key to Addressing the Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change and Underdevelopment](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/why-regional-initiatives-are-key-to-addressing-the-catastrophic-risks-of-climate-change-and-underdevelopment/) - Ken Mbeva published a blog article ​​Why Regional Initiatives Are Key to Addressing the Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change and Underdevelopment as part of a Synergies series on climate and trade curated by TESS titled Addressing the Climate Crisis and Supporting Climate-Resilient Development: Where Can the Trading System Contribute?.
- [CSER July 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-july-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month's Newsletter: July 2025 This month, CSER highlights a bibliometric review of global catastrophic risk research, co-authored by CSER researchers and published in Earth System Dynamics. The newsletter also features work on migrant workers and health equity, climate change as an existential threat, and new research on informal epidemic responses in Ghana. Additional
- [CSER September 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-september-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month’s Newsletter: September 2025 This month, CSER announces applications for the 2026 MPhil in Global Risk and Resilience and the recruitment of a Teaching Associate. The newsletter also highlights new research on global catastrophic risks, reflections on the G20’s relevance, and a recent podcast discussion on disaster preparedness.
- [CSER October 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-october-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month’s Newsletter: October 2025 This month, CSER is recruiting a Postgraduate Co-ordinator to support the new MPhil in Global Risk and Resilience, with applications open until 5 November. This month’s updates include new work on nuclear weapons and planetary risks, the FAO’s early-warning framework for animal health (with contributions from CSER’s Charlotte Hammer),
- [CSER November 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-november-2025-newsletter/) - In this Month’s Newsletter: November 2025 This month, a new paper in Nature Geoscience co-authored by Lara Mani reviews 40 years of lessons in volcanic crisis communication, highlighting persistent challenges in warnings, information flow, and community response. The newsletter also features research on intellectual hegemony in just transition scholarship, new illustrations for the CSER website,
- [CSER August 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-august-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month's Newsletter: August 2025 This month, CSER announces a public lecture with historian Lorraine Daston (18 September, Cambridge) on how the insurance industry has confronted catastrophic risks, from historic natural disasters to the realities of climate change. The newsletter also calls for papers for the 2026 workshop After Sendai: Governing Catastrophic Risks in
- [Model Collapse and the Right to Uncontaminated Human-Generated Data](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/model-collapse-and-the-right-to-uncontaminated-human-generated-data/) - This article explores how the rise of AI-generated content is polluting the online information environment and making high-quality, human-made data increasingly scarce. As uncontaminated data becomes harder to access, established AI developers gain powerful advantages over newcomers, raising concerns for innovation and competition. The article outlines the legal and policy challenges this creates and introduces
- [Strategic insights from simulation gaming of AI race dynamics](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/strategic-insights-from-simulation-gaming-of-ai-race-dynamics/) - Abstract We present insights from `Intelligence Rising’, a scenario exploration exercise about possible AI futures. Drawing on the experiences of facilitators who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring patterns, strategies, and decision-making processes observed during gameplay. Our analysis reveals key strategic considerations about AI development trajectories in this simulated environment, including: the
- [Infrastructure, risk, and resilience on Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Navigating the Nexus](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/infrastructure-risk-and-resilience-on-small-island-developing-states-sids-navigating-the-nexus/) - Lara Mani co-authored the Waterloo Climate Institute technical brief led by Simron J Singh and Mehnaz Hossain, Infrastructure, risk, and resilience on Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Navigating the Nexus. This technical brief shows how infrastructure underpins most Sustainable Development Goals while creating a reinforcing cycle of resource use through the stock-flow-service nexus. It highlights
- [The UK Ministry of Defence, “Low-Carbon Warfare,” and the struggle to construct novel sociotechnical imaginaries of future war](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-uk-ministry-of-defence-low-carbon-warfare-and-the-struggle-to-construct-novel-sociotechnical-imaginaries-of-future-war/) - Abstract Why do defence organizations take some imaginaries of future warfare more seriously than others? In this article, we use the concept of “sociotechnical imaginaries” to chart the struggle of a vanguard group of officials within the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) to articulate a new vision of “low-carbon warfare” as a response to looming
- [Nuclear Weapons, Planetary Risks, and Human Consequences](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nuclear-weapons-planetary-risks-and-human-consequences/) - S.M. Amadae and Kim Keskiivari have edited an open-access textbook, Nuclear Weapons, Planetary Risks, and Human Consequences. The book introduces the history, impact, and politics of nuclear weapons, exploring deterrence, alliances and arms control. This book covers the history of nuclear weapons, the impact of nuclear weapons, theories and strategies of nuclear deterrence, the nuclear
- [Meet the Researcher: Dr Lara Mani](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/meet-researcher-dr-lara-mani/) - Dr Lara Mani, Research Associate @laramani14 Lara is a Research Associate in Communication and Outreach for CSER's 'A Science of Global Risk' project, covering a wide array of global catastrophic risks. Lara works towards building an empirical evidence base for a variety of outreach and communication techniques adopted to present global risk. She also works
- [Meet the Researcher: Freya Jephcott](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/meet-researcher-freya-jephcott/) - Freya Jephcott, Research Associate Email: flj22@cam.ac.uk Freya’s work is primarily concerned with the effectiveness of outbreak response systems in resource-limited settings and their management in outbreaks of uncertain aetiology. In addition to her research, Freya also participates in applied and policy work on complex health emergencies with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and the World
- [Meet the Researcher: Jess Bland](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/meet-researcher-jess-bland/) - Jess Bland, Deputy Director Jess has a background in science and technology policy, including working at the Dubai Future Foundation, the Royal Society and Nesta. She is interested in bringing technical expertise into public debate through programmes like the World Majlis at Expo 2020. Jessica was principal at School of International Futures until 2021,
- [CCCR 2022 - Day 1 Videos](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2022-day-1-videos/) - Day 1 - Tuesday 19 April 2022 Tina Park Addressing the Challenges of Inclusive Practises in AI Development followed by panel Forecasting Future Risks from AI with reflections from Jess Whittlestone, Shahar Avin, David Krueger. Joachim Isacsson Tomorrow never dies: Bolts from the Blue and Creeping Crises, Disruptions in a Changing World
- [Video: Aarathi Krishnan: Grey Mirror–is uncertainty about the future an opportunity for greater equality?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-aarathi-krishnan-grey-mirror-uncertainty-about-future-opportunity-greater-equality/) - Aarathi Krishnan - "Grey Mirror – is uncertainty about the future an opportunity for greater equality?" (11 October 2022, CSER Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) The future is a grey mirror of our present. Uncertainty about what happens next means the future is never available in high definition. This makes it important to consider
- [Video: The Era of Global Risk Panel](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-era-global-risk-panel/) - "The Era of Global Risk" (21 March 2023, CSER Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) This event launched an ambitious new book – The Era of Global Risk as part of the Cambridge Festival 2023. This volume curates 11 specially commissioned essays that give a comprehensive and accessible overview of the emerging science of existential risk
- [Video: Nuclear Risk Reduction in the Baltic Sea Region](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-nuclear-risk-reduction-baltic-sea-region/) - Nuclear Risk Reduction in the Baltic Sea Region (19 July 2023, Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) The Centre for Geopolitics and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, with support from the European Leadership Network, were pleased to jointly host a panel on Nuclear Risk Reduction in the Baltic Sea Region. Vladimir Putin’s
- [Video: Scoping Nuclear Weapons Choices in an Age of Existential Threats](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-scoping-nuclear-weapons-choices-age-existential-threats/) - Benoît Pelopidas - Scoping Nuclear Weapons Choices in an Age of Existential Threats (14 June 2023, Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is hosted a public lecture by Professor Benoît Pelopidas (Founding director of the Nuclear Knowledges program at Sciences Po) on 14th June at 5.30pm in
- [Law and the Governance of (Potential) Ecosystem Collapse with Dr Reuben Makomere](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/research-seminar-dr-reuben-makomere/) - Presenter: Dr Reuben Makomere, University Associate, University of Tasmania, Australia; Visiting Scholar, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, UK Moderator: Dr Kennedy Mbeva, Research Associate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, UK We are now in the Anthropocene, an era defined by the significant impact of human activities
- [VMSG 60th Anniversary Seminar - Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi (Université de Goma) & Amy Donovan (Cambridge)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vmsg-60th-anniversary-seminar-blaise-mafuko-nyandwi-universite-de-goma-amy-donovan-cambridge/) - As part of the Volcanic and Magmatic Studies Group's (VMSG) 60th Anniversary celebrations the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and Cambridge Volcanology Group hosted a lecture by Dr Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi from the University of Goma, DRC and Professor Amy Donovan from the University of Cambridge. They spoke about their research and experiences on the theme "How
- [Law and the Governance of (Potential) Ecosystem Collapse with Dr Reuben Makomere](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/law-and-governance-potential-ecosystem-collapse-dr-reuben-makomere/) - Law and the Governance of (Potential) Ecosystem Collapse with Dr Reuben Makomere (28 May 2024, Public Seminar, University of Cambridge) We are now in the Anthropocene, an era defined by the significant impact of human activities on our planet. This includes global climate change, the loss of biodiversity, increasing ocean acidification, among other crises. Taken
- [Reflections on the legacy of Sir Joseph Rotblat in a time of rising nuclear risk: the responsibility of scientists with Athene Donald](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reflections-legacy-sir-joseph-rotblat-time-rising-nuclear-risk-responsibility-scientists-athene-donald/) - On 9th May, CSER and British Pugwash hosted a public lecture by Professor Dame Athene Donald. Athene Donald reflected on Sir Joseph Rotblat's enduring legacy in the face of increasing nuclear risks and the critical responsibilities of scientists in today's world. Athene Donald is Professor of Experimental Physics and Master of Churchill College. Athene was awarded a BA
- [29th May 2025; Long Problems: Governing in an era of existential risk public lecture](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/long-problems-governing-in-an-era-of-existential-risk-public-lecture-29th-may-2025/) - Long Problems: Governing in an era of existential risk Date: 29 May 2025, 5.30-7.00pm Venue: Fellows Auditorium, Homerton College Cambridge and Online Global challenges today—from accelerating climate change and pandemics to transformative technologies—pose risks that unfold over decades or centuries and threaten the very foundations of our societies. In his public lecture, Professor Thomas Hale
- [18 September 2025: Calculating without Statistics: The Insurance Industry Confronts Catastrophe](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/18-september-2025-calculating-without-statistics-the-insurance-industry-confronts-catastrophe/) - Calculating without Statistics: The Insurance Industry Confronts Catastrophe Date: 18 September 2025, 5.30-6.30 pm Venue: McCrum Lecture Theatre, Corpus Christi College Cambridge Every fifty years or so, a natural disaster causes such cataclysmic damage in a wealthy, fully insured part of the world that even the world’s biggest insurance companies face enormous claims that threaten
- [1 September 2025: Can Greek Democracy Save the World?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/1-september-2025-can-greek-democracy-save-the-world/) - Can Greek Democracy Save the World? Date: 1st September 2025, 1.30 - 2.30pm UK time Venue: CFI Boardroom (16 Mill Lane) & Online The path to global sustainable development is participatory democratic global governance – the only truly effective path to confronting pandemics, military conflict, climate change, biodiversity loss, and potential overall ecological collapse. In
- [Who shapes the just transition? Examining intellectual hegemony in climate research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/who-shapes-the-just-transition-examining-intellectual-hegemony-in-climate-research/) - A new paper by Kennedy Mbeva, Chukwumerije Okereke & Reuben Makomere, in Environmental Research Letters journal, investigates the issue of intellectual hegemony in Just Transition scholarship. Abstract Analysing a dataset of 5432 journal articles (1986–2023) using bibliometric techniques, we investigate the conceptual framing, thematic evolution and publication trends of just transition—a concept seeking to reconcile
- [CCCR 2022 - Day 2 Blog](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2022-day-2-blog/) - Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2022 Day 2 - Turned to what we can learn from real catastrophes that have taken place in the future and how we can apply these lessons to the future catastrophes facing us. The day opened with a talk by one of CSER’s academic programme managers, SJ Beard, on the
- [Lessons from 40 years of communicating volcanic risk during crises](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lessons-from-40-years-of-communicating-volcanic-risk-during-crises/) - A new comment piece by authors including Lara Mani on "Lessons from 40 years of communicating volcanic risk during crises" has just been published in Nature Geoscience, as part of the 40th anniversary special issue commemorating the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption. It reflects on the progress of volcanic crisis communications over the past four
- [Framework for early warning of animal health threats](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/framework-for-early-warning-of-animal-health-threats/) - The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has launched a new framework for early warning of animal health threats, developed by an international group of experts. The framework outlines the technical objectives for implementing and managing early warning systems against infectious animal diseases. CSER's Charlotte Hammer contributed her expertise, helping shape the sections
- [The Art of Risk: New Illustrations of Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-art-of-risk-new-illustrations-of-existential-risk/) - Bland Illustrator and Falmouth Lecturer Phyllida Bluemel and Dr Lauren Holt, Research Associate at CSER, first worked together on the book Memetic Mythology for The End Times. In 2025, they co-creatively explored how complex topics are visualised – especially those dealing with existential risk – in order to create the new images for the CSER website
- [24 October 2025: Conversations on Existential Hope](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/24-october-2025-conversations-on-existential-hope/) - Conversations on Existential Hope Date: 24 October 2025, 5 - 6.30pm UK time Venue: Upper Hall, St Paul’s Church, Hills Road, Cambridge CB2 1JP Join the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk for an evening of conversation about how we overcome existential anxiety and existential risk in a world that feels like it is
- [Are we prepared for global disasters?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/are-we-prepared-for-global-disasters/) - On The Disorder podcast, Lara Mani joined Ruth Richardson and Catalina Jaime to discuss preparing for global disasters and the importance of international coordination.
- [Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk: A Review](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/existential-risk-and-global-catastrophic-risk-a-review/) - Introduction This report aims to provide a brief overview of global catastrophic and existential risk. The first section identifies how the field of Existential Risk Studies has developed over time, whilst presenting recent work to define and classify global catastrophic risk and existential risk (including thresholds for categorization of risk). The report then identifies how
- [Manifesto for the Responsible Development of Mathematical Works—A Tool for Practitioners and for Management](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/manifesto-for-the-responsible-development-of-mathematical-works-a-tool-for-practitioners-and-for-management-2/) - Abstract This manifesto has been written as a practical tool and aid for anyone carrying out, managing or influencing mathematical work. It provides insight into how to undertake and develop mathematically-powered products and services in a safe and responsible way. Rather than give a framework of objectives to achieve, we instead introduce a process that
- [Handing Over the Keys to the City: When Governments May Inadvertently Solve One Crisis with a Bigger One](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/handing-over-the-keys-to-the-city-when-governments-may-inadvertently-solve-one-crisis-with-a-bigger-one/) - In times of crisis, governments may panic and hand over the keys to the city—delegating extraordinary power to external actors promising salvation. This may solve the immediate problem but trigger an even bigger crisis. Abstract This paper introduces the concept of "handing over the keys to the city", whereby political leaders facing severe crises delegate
- [How African countries are managing the potentially catastrophic risks of just transition through the investment regime](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-african-countries-are-managing-the-potentially-catastrophic-risks-of-just-transition-through-the-investment-regime/) - A new article by Kennedy Mbeva looks at how investment rules like the AfCFTA Investment Protocol are shaping climate action, foreign investment, and sustainable development.
- [CSER June 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-june-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month's Newsletter: June 2025 CSER is hiring a Research Assistant and a Research Associate, the deadline to apply is Sunday 6th July 2025. Recent highlights include new research on systemic global risks, algorithmic collisions, and development-related catastrophe, as well as CSER’s contribution to the UN Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. We also
- [Endowment Establishes the Rees Feinberg Professorship](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/endowment-establishes-the-rees-feinberg-professorship/) - Philanthropist Carl Feinberg has donated the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk a multi-million-dollar endowment to establish the Rees Feinberg Professorship, named after both Carl Feinberg and CSER co-founder Lord Martin Rees. When in post, this Professor will be a leading expert in global catastrophic risk. “I hope [the gift] will enable CSER to
- [Call for Papers: After Sendai: Governing catastrophic risks in the emerging global order](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/call-for-papers-after-sendai-governing-catastrophic-risks-in-the-emerging-global-order/) - After Sendai Governing catastrophic risks in the emerging global order Call for Papers 11-12 May 2026 (Virtual workshop) Convening institutions: Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania School of Law, University College Cork Convenors: Dr Ken Mbeva, Dr Reuben Makomere, Dr Elena Kavanagh Background We
- [CSER Report January - March 2025](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-january-march-2025/) - This report outlines our activities from January to March 2025. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [Practical norms in emerging infectious disease control: lessons for transnational collaboration from a suspected newly emerging zoonosis outbreak in Ghana](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/practical-norms-in-emerging-infectious-disease-control-lessons-for-transnational-collaboration-from-a-suspected-newly-emerging-zoonosis-outbreak-in-ghana/) - Abstract Concern around the emergence of zoonoses with pandemic potential has fuelled significant foreign engagement with domestic infectious disease surveillance and response systems across Africa. These international efforts at augmentation have likely been hampered, however, by an inattention to how such systems actually manifest on the ground and the critical activities and undertakings that take
- [Is Climate Change an Existential Threat?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/is-climate-change-an-existential-threat/) - Ken Mbeva spoke to Gizmodo about climate change as an existential threat. So, while those who think about climate change on a planetary scale focus on boundaries and tipping points, you can also see climate change impacting people in many different ways across the world. I think these different perspectives share the same concern. As
- [Existential risks and global challenges: migrant workers and interspecies exploitation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/existential-risks-and-global-challenges-migrant-workers-and-interspecies-exploitation/) - Our current animal-based food production system is largely based on the systemic exploitation of animals for human use. Farmed animals now account for the majority of global mammal biomass, with intensive farming dominating the sector. This model of industrial production not only raises serious animal welfare concerns but also presents significant risks to global health
- [The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-state-of-global-catastrophic-risk-research-a-bibliometric-review/) - CSER Researchers Constantin Arnscheidt, Lalitha Sundaram and Research Affiliate Luke Kemp co-authored the first ever systematic review of the entire GCR/ER literature, in Earth System Dynamics and led by Florian Jehn (ALLFED/SoDy. They analysed all 3,437 documents in the OpenAlex database which mention GCR and ER, used bibliographic coupling (two documents are more closely linked
- [22 July 2025: Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in a new age of "dangerous biology" and resurgent nationalism seminar](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/22-july-2025-biosecurity-and-pandemic-preparedness-in-a-new-age-of-dangerous-biology-and-resurgent-nationalism-seminar/) - Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in a new age of "dangerous biology" and resurgent nationalism seminar Date: 22nd July 2025, 2-4pm UK time Venue: Syndics Room & Online Five years on from the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, the biosecurity landscape seems more uncertain than ever. The impact of Artificial Intelligence, the emerging debate about the
- [Vice: This Guy Studies the 'Global Systems Death Spiral' That Might End Humanity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vice-guy-studies-global-systems-death-spiral-might/) - Dr S.J Beard was recently interviewed by Vice about their work at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. Could climate change get so bad that it leads to our extinction? A few researchers are trying to answer that question. S.J Beard has a career that most people would consider depressing and terrifying. They
- [Climate Protest and Resistance Workshop (Invitation only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-protest-and-resistance-workshop-invitation/) - The workshop aims to explore the ethics of climate protest, broadly construed. Despite its prominence as an issue of public concern, climate protest remains underexplored in political theory and philosophy. The potential scale of climate change, its global and intergenerational structure and the way it intersects with a range of social vulnerabilities might pose
- [Ninth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention: Where Next for the UK? (Invitation only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bwc-where-next-for-uk/) - Organised by Lalitha Sundaram, Tom Hobson and Alex Klein, this one day workshop will bring together experts from UK civil society to discuss developments in biological security governance in the wake of the Ninth RevCon. The workshop will be a space for general reflection on the state of play of major international treaties and
- [Workshop to Explore Nuclear Cultures (Invitation Only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/workshop-explore-nuclear-cultures-invitation-only/) - Paul Ingram and visitor Sarah Woods are hosting a workshop on deepening our capacity to engage with diverse nuclear cultures. Using creative systems tools , we’ll start exploring the narratives supporting the policies of the nuclear armed states and their critics in a spirit of open enquiry. Have you ever sensed that engagement on
- [Synthetic biology regulation in Europe: containment, release and beyond](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/synthetic-biology-regulation-europe-containment-release-and-beyond/) - Abstract While synthetic biology is hoped to hold promise and potential to address pressing global challenges, the issue of regulation is an under-appreciated challenge. Particularly in Europe, the regulatory frameworks involved are rooted in historical concepts based on containment and release. Through a series of case studies including a field-use biosensor intended to detect
- [Rewards, risks and responsible deployment of artificial intelligence in water systems](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/rewards-risks-and-responsible-deployment-artificial-intelligence-water-systems/) - Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly proposed to address deficiencies across water systems, which currently leave about 25% of the global population without clean water, about 50% without sanitation services and about 30% without hygiene facilities. AI is poised to enhance supply insights, catchment management and emergency response, improve treatment plant and distribution network
- [Pluralisms in Existential Risk Studies (Invitation only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/pluralisms-existential-risk-studies-invitation-onl/) - Gideon Futerman, SJ Beard (CSER) and Anders Sandberg (FHI) are hosting a Workshop on Pluralisms in Existential Risk Studies from 11th-14th May at Wytham Abbey in Oxfordshire. The event will bring together researchers from across the discipline of Existential Risk Studies and beyond to discuss a variety of aspects of pluralisms in the field. The
- [Model evaluation for extreme risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/model-evaluation-extreme-risks/) - Abstract Current approaches to building general-purpose AI systems tend to produce systems with both beneficial and harmful capabilities. Further progress in AI development could lead to capabilities that pose extreme risks, such as offensive cyber capabilities or strong manipulation skills. We explain why model evaluation is critical for addressing extreme risks. Developers must be
- [International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global warming scenario](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/international-risk-food-insecurity-and-mass-mortality-runaway-global-warming-scenario/) - Abstract Climate and agriculture have played an interconnected role in the rise and fall of historical civilizations. Our modern food system, based on open-environment production and globalised supply chains, is vulnerable to a litany of abiotic and biotic stressors exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. Despite this evidence, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Current
- [Predicting and reasoningabout replicability usingstructured groups](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/predicting-and-reasoningabout-replicability-usingstructured-groups/) - Abstract This paper explores judgements about the replicability of socialand behavioural sciences research and what drives thosejudgements. Using a mixed methods approach, it draws onqualitative and quantitative data elicited from groups using astructured approach called the IDEA protocol (‘investigate’,‘discuss’,‘estimate’and‘aggregate’). Five groups of fivepeople with relevant domain expertise evaluated 25 researchclaims that were subject to
- [Harms from Increasingly Agentic Algorithmic Systems](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/harms-increasingly-agentic-algorithmic-systems/) - Abstract Research in Fairness, Accountability, Transparency, and Ethics (FATE)1 has established many sources and forms of algorithmic harm, in domains as diverse as health care, finance, policing, and recommendations. Much work remains to be done to mitigate the serious harms of these ystems, particularly those disproportionately affecting marginalized communities. Despite these ongoing harms, new systems
- [Your Prompt is My Command: On Assessing the Human-Centred Generality of Multimodal Models](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/your-prompt-my-command-assessing-human-centred-generality-multimodal-models/) - Abstract Even with obvious deficiencies, large prompt-commanded multimodal models are proving to be flexible cognitive tools representing an unprecedented generality. But the directness, diversity, and degree of user interaction create a distinctive “human-centred generality” (HCG), rather than a fully autonomous one. HCG implies that —for a specific user— a system is only as general
- [CSER Public Lecture: Benoît Pelopidas](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/benoit-pelopidas-public-lecture/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is hosting a public lecture by Professor Benoît Pelopidas (Founding director of the Nuclear Knowledges program at Sciences Po) on 14th June at 5.30pm in the Runcie Room, Faculty of Divinity. Professor Benoît Pelopidas is the founding director of the Nuclear Knowledges program (formerly chair of
- [Manifesto for the Responsible Development of Mathematical Works -- A Tool for Practitioners and for Management](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/manifesto-responsible-development-mathematical-works-tool-practitioners-and-management/) - Abstract This manifesto has been written as a practical tool and aid for anyone carrying out, managing or influencing mathematical work. It provides insight into how to undertake and develop mathematically-powered products and services in a safe and responsible way. Rather than give a framework of objectives to achieve, we instead introduce a process
- [Safely advancing a spacefaring humanity with artificial intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/safely-advancing-spacefaring-humanity-artificial-intelligence/) - Abstract A “Space Renaissance” is underway. As our efforts to understand, utilize and settle space rapidly take new form, three distinct human-space interfaces are emerging, defined here as the “Earth-for-space,” “space-for-Earth” and “space-for-space” economies. Each engenders unprecedented opportunities, and artificial intelligence (AI) will play an essential role in facilitating innovative, accurate and responsive endeavors
- [Workshop Report: Ninth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention: Where Next for the UK?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/workshop-report-ninth-review-conference-biological-weapons-convention-where-next-uk/) - In April 2023, a group of 19 experts gathered at the University of Cambridge to discuss the outcomes of the Ninth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention, and the implications for biosecurity and non-proliferation in the UK. The meeting included representatives from: academia civil society and NGOs government and the civil service Attendees
- [Inter-disciplinary Exploration Into How We Think About Global Risk Workshop (Invitation Only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/inter-disciplinary-exploration-how-we-think-about/) - Paul Ingram and visitor Sarah Woods are hosting a workshop to explore tools that take a whole systems approach to the global risks we face. 20th century linear, mechanistic thinking is failing us as a diverse set of interconnected hazards overwhelm our institutions and approaches. Using creative systems tools, we’ll look at the narratives
- [Evaluating the crisis communications campaign during the 2020–21 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/evaluating-crisis-communications-campaign-during-202021-eruption-la-soufriere-st-vincent/) - Abstract During the 2020–21 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent, the University of the West Indies, Seismic Research Centre played a major role in supporting communication of hazard and risk information to publics and stakeholders across St Vincent. Due to COVID-19 restrictions on in-person education and outreach activities, the communications campaign was heavily reliant
- [AIES 2023: AI Systems of Concern](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/aies-2023-ai-systems-concern/) - Abstract Concerns around future dangers from advanced AI often centre on systems hypothesised to have intrinsic characteristics such as agent-like behaviour, strategic awareness, and long-range planning. We label this cluster of characteristics as “Property X”. Most present AI systems are low in “Property X”; however in the absence of deliberate steering, current research directions
- [How to reduce Africa’s undue exposure to climate risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-reduce-africas-undue-exposure-climate-risks/) - Climate and weather-related disasters, including tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods and droughts, are on the rise. Over the past 50 years, rates have increased fivefold globally, and the damages associated with them have swelled by 70 times1,2. This will only get worse as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather. And some
- [Big STEM collaborations should include humanities and social science](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/big-stem-collaborations-should-include-humanities-and-social-science/) - The divide between the natural sciences and the humanities and social sciences in the West is a recent one. Newton considered himself a ‘natural philosopher’, Thomas Hobbes thought that one of his greatest achievements was laying the foundations of optics, and Margaret Cavendish was the author of one of the first works of science
- [International Governance of Civilian AI: A Jurisdictional Certification Approach](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/international-governance-civilian-ai-jurisdictional-certification-approach/) - Abstract This report describes trade-offs in the design of international governance arrangements for civilian artificial intelligence (AI) and presents one approach in detail. This approach represents the extension of a standards, licensing, and liability regime to the global level. We propose that states establish an International AI Organization (IAIO) to certify state jurisdictions (not
- [Effective Enforceability of EU Competition Law Under AI Development Scenarios: a Framework for Anticipatory Governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/effective-enforceability-of-eu-competition-law-under-ai-development-scenarios-a-framework-for-anticipatory-governance/) - Abstract This paper examines whether competition law enforcement can remain effective under different AI development scenarios over the coming years. Economic and political power has become increasingly concentrated into a few AI companies, such as Big Tech. The growth of generative AI could further reinforce this concentration of power in Big Tech. The market
- [Hazards with escalation potential: Governing the drivers of global and existential catastrophes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/hazards-escalation-potential-governing-drivers-global-and-existential-catastrophes/) - A new report 'Hazards with Escalation Potential: Governing the Drivers of Global and Existential Catastrophes' was published by the UNDRR, International Science Council, CSER & Simon Institute for Longterm Governance. Executive Summary The future of humanity and the planet hinges on human choices. How societies invest in critical infrastructure, political systems, military capacity and
- [Climate Resistance and the Far Future](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-resistance-and-far-future/) - Abstract This paper argues that climate injustice will be compounded in the future as a result of the deferred nature of many climate impacts. My claim is that the temporal disconnect between emissions and climate harm threatens future people’s ability to access what I call “resistance goods,” which rely on forms of address, often
- [Memetic Mythology for the End Times](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/memetic-mythology-for-the-end-times/) - Memetic Mythology for the End Times Memetic Mythology for the End Times PDF Memetic Mythology for the End Times is a small book written by Dr Lauren Holt with the support of the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation (VKRF). As part of efforts to address the current interlocking environmental and human social catastrophes VKRF term
- [Predictable Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/predictable-artificial-intelligence/) - Abstract We introduce the fundamental ideas and challenges of “Predictable AI”, a nascent research area that explores the ways in which we can anticipate key indicators of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI ecosystems, and thus should be
- [Digital twins: a stepping stone to achieve ocean sustainability?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/digital-twins-stepping-stone-achieve-ocean-sustainability/) - Abstract Digital twins, a nascent yet potent computer technology, can substantially advance sustainable ocean management by mitigating overfishing and habitat degradation, modeling, and preventing marine pollution and supporting climate adaptation by safely assessing marine geoengineering alternatives. Concomitantly, digital twins may facilitate multi-party marine spatial planning. However, the potential of this emerging technology for such
- [Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/scoping-potential-routes-uk-civil-unrest-food-system-results-structured-expert-elicitation/) - Abstract We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in
- [Teaching Resources for Embedding Ethics in Mathematics: Exercises, Projects, and Handouts](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/teaching-resources-embedding-ethics-mathematics-exercises-projects-and-handouts/) - Abstract The resources compiled in this document provide an approach to embed and teach Ethics in Mathematics at the undergraduate level. This is a collection of exercises, projects, and handouts, for those wishing to integrate and embed ethics into the teaching of mathematics or related courses with significant mathematical content (e.g., physics, engineering, computer
- [Non-autonomous Dynamics in Complex Systems: Theory and Applications to Critical Transitions](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/non-autonomous-dynamics-complex-systems-theory-and/) - This workshop and seminar, held by the Max Planck Institute, aims to bring together scientists from various disciplines of the natural and physical sciences, particularly from research areas dealing with complex systems and applications to aspects of earth system science, biosciences and network dynamics. The workshop will focus on mathematical approaches, methodologies and applications
- [The Ethics of Volcano Geoengineering](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ethics-volcano-geoengineering/) - Abstract Volcano geoengineering is the practice of altering the state of volcanic systems and/or volcanic eruptions to exploit them or mitigate their risk. Although many in the field insist there is little that can be done to mitigate the hazard, past examples of both intentional and inadvertent volcano interventions demonstrate that it is technically
- [Large language models and agricultural extension services](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/large-language-models-and-agricultural-extension-services/) - Abstract Several factors have traditionally hampered the effectiveness of agricultural extension services, including limited institutional capacity and reach. Here we assess the potential of large language models (LLMs), specifically Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), to transform agricultural extension. We focus on the ability of LLMs to simplify scientific knowledge and provide personalized, location-specific and data-driven
- [Building societal preparedness for globally disruptive volcanic eruptions by Lara Mani](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/building-societal-preparedness-globally-disruptive/) - As we hit the halfway point of term CUSPE would like to invite you to its first lecture of the year on volcanoes, risk, and crisis management. The talk will be given by Lara Mani. Lara is a Senior Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), where her research seeks
- [Global history, the emergence of chaos and inducing sustainability in networks of socio-ecological systems](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-history-emergence-chaos-and-inducing-sustainability-networks-socio-ecological-systems/) - Abstract In this study, we propose a simplified model of a socio-environmental system that accounts for population, resources, and wealth, with a quadratic population contribution in the resource extraction term. Given its structure, an analytical treatment of attractors and bifurcations is possible. In particular, a Hopf bifurcation from a stable fixed point to a
- [Technomoral Conversations: The Geopolitics of AI by Edinburgh Futures Institute](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/technomoral-conversations-geopolitics-ai-edinburgh/) - The geopolitics of AI is one aspect of the dynamic interplay between nations as they vie for technological supremacy, economic dominance, and strategic advantage. Countries are investing heavily in AI research and development to harness its potential across various sectors, including defence, economy, healthcare, and more. This competition is driven by the recognition that
- [Workshop Report: Managing the contribution of SRM and climate change to GCR](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/workshop-report-managing-contribution-srm-and-climate-change-gcr/) - This report presents key findings from a workshop on managing the contribution of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), a form of solar geoengineering, and Climate Change to Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR), which was hosted by Gideon Futerman and SJ Beard at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk on March 28th and 29th 2023.
- [Ineffective responses to unlikely outbreaks: Hypothesis building in newly-emerging infectious disease outbreaks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ineffective-responses-unlikely-outbreaks-hypothesis-building-newly-emerging-infectious-disease-outbreaks/) - Abstract Over the last 30 years, there has been significant investment in research and infrastructure aimed at mitigating the threat of newly emerging infectious diseases (NEID). Core epidemiological processes, such as outbreak investigations, however, have received little attention and have proceeded largely unchecked and unimproved. Using ethnographic material from an investigation into a cryptic
- [Safeguarding the safeguards: How best to promote AI alignment in the public interest](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/safeguarding-safeguards-how-best-promote-ai-alignment-public-interest/) - Abstract AI alignment work is important from both a commercial and a safety lens. With this paper, we aim to help actors who support alignment efforts to make these efforts as effective as possible, and to avoid potential adverse effects. We begin by suggesting that institutions that are trying to act in the public
- [Tackling the overpopulation myth and climate change](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/tackling-overpopulation-myth-and-climate-change/) - SJ Beard will be speaking on a panel organised by Cambridge Reproduction to discuss how climate change and reproductive justice intersect. A networking reception will follow the panel talks. Panellists: Lisa Tilley, Senior Lecturer in Development Studies, Department of Development Studies - SOAS University of London (SOAS) SJ Beard, Senior Research Associate - Centre for the Study of
- [Computing Power and the Governance of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/computing-power-and-governance-artificial-intelligence/) - Abstract Computing power, or "compute," is crucial for the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. As a result, governments and companies have started to leverage compute as a means to govern AI. For example, governments are investing in domestic compute capacity, controlling the flow of compute to competing countries, and subsidizing compute
- [Disruption, Democracy & the Global Order: An Evening with Yuval Noah Harari](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/technological-disruption-ecological-collapse-and-f/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and King’s College Cambridge are pleased to host a public lecture by by Professor Yuval Noah Harari on Disruption, Democracy & the Global Order. Professor Yuval Noah Harari is a historian, philosopher, and the bestselling author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, Homo Deus: A
- [A Family Buisness](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/family-buisness/) - A show about how not to blow up the planet. Written and performed by Chris Thorpe, develpped with Rachel Chavkin and Lekan Lawal, and directed by Claire O'Reilly. We don't really talk about nuclear weapons much. Even though they accompany us everwhere. Invisible guests in cafes, on the shelves of supermarkets, in line at
- [Lara Mani awarded the Geological Society's Murchison Fund](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lara-mani-awarded-geological-societys-murchison-fu/) - Dr Lara Mani is the recipient of the 2024 Murchison Fund, awarded by the Geological Society of London for her considerable contributions to 'hard' rock studies. The Murchison Fund is awarded to contributors to the Earth Sciences on the basis of noteworthy published research in 'hard' rock studies. This Fund is awarded to early-career geoscientists
- [Professor Yuval Harari joins CSER as Research Fellow](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/professor-yuval-harari-joins-cser-research-fellow/) - Professor Yuval Noah Harari has joined CSER as a Research Fellow, the first appointment in the Institute for Technology and Humanity’s Distinguished Fellowship programme. Professor Yuval Noah Harari is a historian, philosopher, and the bestselling author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow and 21 Lessons for the 21st
- [Rethinking Fairness: Navigating Climate Breakdown Across Generations with Kennedy Mbeva](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/rethinking-fairness-navigating-climate-breakdown-a/) - Today, we find ourselves at a critical juncture, faced with the immediate and uneven impacts of climate breakdown alongside significant shifts in global populations. These intertwined challenges demand a new way of thinking about our responsibility to both present and future generations. Kennedy Mbeva, researcher at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University
- [Study on Diversity and Inclusion in Existential Risk Studies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/study-diversity-and-inclusion-existential-risk-studies/) - Study on Diversity and Inclusion in Existential Risk Studies As part of their Borysiewicz Interdisciplinary Fellowship, SJ Beard completed an independent project surveying researchers in Existential Risk Studies to understand their views on diversity and inclusion. SJ partnered with Suzy Levy, a consultant specialising in this area, and carried out a dozen interviews, including
- [Leading Africa through Great Transitions](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/leading-africa-through-great-transitions/) - Please join us on the sidelines of the 2024 Skoll World Forum to engage and hear from Africa's visionaries, leading Africa through great transitions, co-hosted by Africa Oxford Initiative and Archbishop Tutu Leadership Fellowship of the African Leadership Institute. With a projected population of 2.5 billion, Africans will comprise 25% of the world’s population
- [Comment: Turning a groundswell of climate action into ground rules for net zero](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/comment-turning-groundswell-climate-action-ground-rules-net-zero/) - Following a groundswell of voluntary net-zero targets by companies, regulators are increasingly introducing mandatory rules. If governments can overcome the barriers to rigour, coherence and fairness, such mandatory ‘ground rules’ have the potential to overcome the obstructionism that holds back a just climate transition. Read full paper
- [The Dark State? Government Secrecy and American Democracy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dark-state-government-secrecy-and-american-democra/) - School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University in the City of New York Presented by the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies (SIWPS), the Institute of Global Politics (IGP), the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy (ISERP), and the Public Interest Declassification Board (PIDB). Named in honor of
- [Alexandru Marcoci awarded funding from Open Philanthropy’s Benchmarking LLM agents on consequential real-world tasks program](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/alexandru-marcoci-awarded-funding-open-philanthrop/) - We are excited to announce that Alexandru Marcoci, Senior Research Associate in AI Risk and Foresight at CSER, was awarded funding from Open Philanthropy’s Benchmarking LLM agents on consequential real-world tasks program. Together with Abel Brodeur (University of Ottawa/Institute for Replication) and Rohan Alexander (University of Toronto), they will investigate the ability of LLMs to assess whether
- [Communicating in Crisis: Community Practices of Online Participation During Extreme Events in Climate Disaster Preparedness](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/communicating-crisis-community-practices-online-participation-during-extreme-events-climate-disaster-preparedness/) - This chapter surveys research into the communication among community members affected by extreme events with digital platforms such as social media and messaging apps before, during and after the events. While there is extant literature on how people adopt effective strategies in sharing real-time information during a major crisis, fewer studies examine the entirety
- [AI & Technical Governance Series: Tangible trustworthiness
for AI systems](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-technical-governance-series-tangible-trustworth/) - Cohere For AI’s series on AI & Technical Governance explores the landscape of AI policy and governance with experts and leaders from industry, government, academia, and civil society. Join us as we gather different perspectives on topics ranging from translating between research and policy to designing sociotechnical safety evaluations. In this session, C4AI’s Policy
- [Finding Existential Hope in Humanity with SJ Beard](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/finding-existential-hope-humanity-sj-beard/) - In the last two decades it has become increasingly common to hear about existential risk, the possibility that humanity may be heading for extinction or global collapse. This risk is very real and deserves to be taken seriously, but risk is only one way that we can look at future possibilities. SJ Beard will explore
- [Creating realities: perspectives on world building](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/creating-realities-perspectives-world-building/) - Speakers Lawrence Grabowski Lara Mani Melanie Smith Sam Sully Our first panel features experts that meet at the intersections of novel technology, arts, and research in world building, and together we’ll think about what creative possibilities emerge through the art of shaping shared realities and experiences. What is Creative Cambridge? Cambridge Enterprise's annual conference
- [The History and Future of State Secrecy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/history-and-future-state-secrecy/) - 2024 Spring Lecture Series: Knowledge in the Shadows: Intelligence, Hidden Pasts, and Historians in the U.S. and Germany The History and Future of State Secrecy with Matthew Connelly. For its first one hundred and fifty years, the U.S. government had relatively few secrets, and subsidized the free flow of information to ensure democratic accountability. But
- [Participatory explorations of alternative futures](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/participatory-explorations-alternative-futures/) - Abstract This essay describes the origins, use, and potential of an innovative web application known as ParEvo, which has been used to facilitate the participatory exploration of alternative futures and histories. Starting with a seed text, participants collaborate anonymously over a series of iterations to construct a branching structure of narrative accounts about different
- [The Discovery of the Future in the Social and Human Sciences Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/discovery-future-social-and-human-sciences-confere/) - Tom Hobson and Jess Bland are talking on the panel Political science and Global Governance at The Discovery of the Future in the Social and Human Sciences Conference in June 2024. The Conference Science is constantly changing. Since the dawn of modern science, science has grown continuously improving its methods and developing new theoretical
- [Huw Price awarded Humboldt Research Award](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/huw-price-awarded-humboldt-research-award/) - We are delighted to announce, co-founder of CSER Dr Huw Price, has been awarded the Humboldt Research Award from the Humboldt Foundation. Every year, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation grants up to 100 Humboldt Research Awards to internationally renowned academics from abroad in recognition of their entire academic record to date. Read more here
- [Balancing long-term and short-term strategies in a sustainability game](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/balancing-long-term-and-short-term-strategies-sustainability-game/) - Abstract Our society is marked by a tension between short-term objectives, such as economic growth, and longterm sustainability goals, including mitigating resource depletion. In such a competitive setting, it is crucial to ascertain whether a system can maintain long-term viability and, if so, how. This article aims to enhance the understanding of this issue by
- [How Foundation Models Could Transform Synthetic Media Detection](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-foundation-models-could-transform-synthetic-media-detection/) - Dr Giulio Corsi, Dr Alexandru Marcoci, and Bill Marino wrote a blog for the LCFI website about Synthetic Media Detection.
- [Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in COVID-19 preprints](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/predicting-the-replicability-of-social-and-behavioural-science-claims-in-covid-19-preprints/) - Abstract Replications are important for assessing the reliability of published findings. However, they are costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower-cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions could accelerate assessment for rapid policy implementation in a crisis and help guide a more efficient allocation of scarce replication resources. We elicited judgements from
- [What Information Should Be Shared with Whom "Before and During Training"?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/what-information-should-be-shared-with-whom-before-and-during-training/) - Abstract In the Frontier AI Safety Commitments, sixteen companies committed to "Assess the risks posed by their frontier models or systems across the AI lifecycle, including [...] as appropriate, before and during training" (I) and to "Provide public transparency on the implementation of the above (I-VI), except insofar as doing so would increase risk or
- [Near-source wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, norovirus, influenza virus and RSV across five different sites in the UK](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/near-source-wastewater-surveillance-of-sars-cov-2-norovirus-influenza-virus-and-rsv-across-five-different-sites-in-the-uk/) - A new paper demonstrates that near-source wastewater surveillance can provide early warning of disease outbreaks, offering communities and healthcare systems a vital head start. Conducted across five diverse UK sites, the study uncovered local outbreaks and trends that national surveillance systems missed. Abstract By tracking infectious diseases through sewage, municipal-scale wastewater surveillance has provided early
- [The Problem of Algorithmic Collisions: Mitigating Unforeseen Risks in a Connected World](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-problem-of-algorithmic-collisions-mitigating-unforeseen-risks-in-a-connected-world/) - Abstract The increasing deployment of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other autonomous algorithmic systems presents the world with new systemic risks. While focus often lies on the function of individual algorithms, a critical and underestimated danger arises from their interactions, particularly when algorithmic systems operate without awareness of each other, or when those deploying them are
- [Methodological Toolkit](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/methodological-toolkit/) - We have developed a methodological toolkit to help a wider community study and mitigate risks that could lead to human extinction or civilisational collapse. Below you will find a set of easily accessible and intuitive introductions to some of the tools that we have developed and implemented as a team, with links to help you
- [Intelligence Rising](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/intelligence-rising/) - Key concepts Intelligence Rising is a strategic simulation of AI futures. It currently takes the form of a training workshop that lets present and future decision-makers experience the tensions and risks that can emerge in the highly competitive environment of AI development through an educational roleplay game. Participants embody characters such as elected officials and their AI
- [ParEvo](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/parevo/) - Key concepts ParEvo is a web application designed to enable the participatory exploration and evaluation of alternative futures (or histories) using an evolutionary method to generate divergent narratives. It is participatory in that it enables diverse groups to work together on constructing narratives about the future. It is explorative in that it focuses on generating
- [Databases of existential risk estimates](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/databases-of-existential-risk-estimates/) - Key concepts This tool is a database of existential risk estimates that have been produced by different researchers for different purposes. As originally conceived, this focused on the estimates for the likelihood of existential hazards, where hazards are events or purposes with the potential to cause (in this case existential quantities of) harm. In order
- [Horizon Scanning](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/horizon-scanning/) - Key concepts Horizon scanning involves crowd-sourcing information and drawing on communities of practice to sort, verify and analyse that information to look for early indications of poorly recognised threats, opportunities, and research questions. ‘Exploratory’ horizon scanning identifies novel issues by searching for the first signals of change. ‘Issue-centred’ scanning monitors issues that have already been
- [Manifesto for the Responsible Development of Mathematical Works - A Tool for Practitioners and for Management](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/manifesto-for-the-responsible-development-of-mathematical-works-a-tool-for-practitioners-and-for-management/) - Purpose of the tool This manifesto has been written as a practical tool and aid for anyone carrying out, managing or influencing mathematical work (including quantitative modelling, artificial intelligence, and machine learning). It provides insight into how to undertake and develop mathematically-powered products and services in a safe and responsible way. Key concepts Rather than
- [The Stepping Stones Approach to Nuclear Disarmament](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-stepping-stones-approach-to-nuclear-disarmament/) - Purpose of the tool The Stepping Stones Approach (SSA) attempts to formalise a strategy to achieving change in situations where power is highly concentrated in the hands of those strongly attached to the status quo, or who believe that significant improvement is not realistic. Confrontation is a common, perhaps default, approach of the powerless, but
- [MOROS](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/moros/) - Key concepts The Mortality of States Index (MOROS) provides an overview of the lifespan of different political states for the past 5,000 years. It documents commonly agreed state formation and end dates for over 440 different political states, from 3100 BCE (Egyptian Dynasties I and II) to 2021. We define a state as a set
- [A Science Policy Interface for GCR](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/a-science-policy-interface-for-gcr/) - Key Concepts CSER has developed this tool for any stakeholder interested in the potential that comes from building Science-Policy interfaces to tackle different issues. The Science-Policy Interface (SPI) approach brings together networks of stakeholders from policy and science communities to emphasise knowledge-building, information sharing and improved alignment. In this case, we focused on the challenge
- [People & Patterns](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/people-patterns/) - People & Patterns: Transforming the ways we think and connect when everything is at risk People & Patterns is a CSER project run by Paul Ingram and Sarah Woods using a whole systems approach to social and economic transformation at a time of global metacrisis. Contents Introduction Systems Stories Patterns Who we are What
- [Autonomy and machine learning at the interface of nuclear weapons, computers and people](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/autonomy-nuclear-weapons/) - Abstract A new era for our species started in 1945: with the terrifying demonstration of the power of the atom bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, the potential global catastrophic consequences of human technology could no longer be ignored. Within the field of global catastrophic and existential risk, nuclear war is one of the more
- [Lara Mani speaks at 8th Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lara-mani-speaks-at-8th-global-platform-for-disaster-risk-reduction/) - Leveraging the potential for strategic foresight is a step in the right direction. But traditional approaches are not enough. We need innovation—creative methods that break down silos, transcend language barriers, and engage diverse voices in imagining our collective future. On 6 June 2025, Lara Mani delivered a formal statement on behalf of CSER during Multi-stakeholder
- [CSER Report April - August 2022](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-april-august-2022-2/) - This report outlines our activities from April to August 2022. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [CSER Report January - March 2022](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-january-march-2022-2/) - This report outlines our activities from January to March 2022. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [CSER Report September - December 2022](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-september-december-2022/) - This report outlines our activities from September to December 2022. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [A Cambridge History of Existential Risk Map](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/a-cambridge-history-of-existential-risk-map/) - Discover Cambridge in a new light with a map created by The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk as part of Open Cambridge, which shows landmarks related to existential risks that we research including disease outbreaks, environmental change and technological acceleration. When you click on each landmark on the map, there will be a short description,
- [CSER Report January - March 2023](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-january-march-2023/) - This report outlines our activities from January to March 2023. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [CSER Report January - March 2024](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-january-march-2024/) - This report outlines our activities from January - March 2024. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [CSER Report September-December 2024](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-september-december-2024/) - This report outlines our activities from September 2024 to December 2024. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as
- [CSER Report April - August 2024](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-april-august-2024/) - This report outlines our activities from September 2024 to December 2024. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as
- [CSER May 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-may-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month’s Newsletter: May 2025 The May 2025 CSER newsletter features upcoming job opportunities, including roles for a Research Assistant and Research Associate, alongside recent research highlights and event updates. We also invite you to our upcoming public lecture, Long Problems: Governing in an Era of Existential Risk, with Professor Thomas Hale on 29
- [Formalising Human-in-the-Loop: Computational Reductions, Failure Modes, and Legal-Moral Responsibility](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/formalising-human-in-the-loop-computational-reductions-failure-modes-and-legal-moral-responsibility/) - A new preprint by CSER's Maurice Chiodo and others asks what it means to put a "Human in the loop" of an AI system and will having a human involved be enough to keep the system safe? Abstract The legal compliance and safety of different Human-in-the-loop (HITL) setups for AI can vary greatly. This manuscript
- [CSER Report April to August 2023](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-april-august-2023/) - This report outlines our activities from April to August 2023. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [CSER Report September to December 2023](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-report-september-to-december-2023/) - This report outlines our activities from January – March 2024. It is produced initially as a paper to support our Strategy Group in reviewing and planning CSER’s research and impact, and shared with other governance bodies within the University of Cambridge. It is then designed into a report, shared with stakeholders and funders, as well
- [29 April 2025; Catastrophic Risks in and from the Arctic Seminar](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/catastrophic-risks-in-and-from-the-arctic-seminar-29-april-2025/) - Catastrophic Risks in and from the Arctic: What if the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic? Date: 29 April 2025, 1.30-3.30pm Venue: Seminar Room B, 17 Mill Lane & Online Following the seminar, Emilie Canova, Elena Kavanagh and Jess Bland summarised key insights and discussions from the seminar on LinkedIn. The Arctic is warming faster
- [Teaching with AI is not binary](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/teaching-with-ai-is-not-binary/) - Using AI is more than just a binary action. You can not use it, you can use it poorly; you can use it well, and there’s probably a big sliding scale in between.– Maurice Chiodo Maurice Chiodo spoke with Claire Gordon on the London School of Economics and Political Science podcast about the ethical use
- [Joint CSER/CEENRG webinar with Dr Luca Mavelli](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/joint-cser-ceenrg-webinar-dr-luca-mavelli/) - CSER & The Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (CEENRG) are pleased to host a seminar by Dr Luca Mavelli. Dr Mavelli will present, “We are all in this together”: Climate change, collective responsibility, and the politics of existential risk Abstract From austerity to the recent pandemic, the refrain ‘We are all in
- [4 February 2025; Public lecture with Professor Rebecca Katz](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-public-lecture-with-professor-rebecca-katz-4-february-2025/) - CSER Public lecture with Professor Rebecca Katz Date: 4 February 2025, 5.30-6.30pm Venue: Frankopan Hall, Jesus College The COVID-19 experience, along with the shifting geopolitical climate, is challenging global cooperation and collaboration in health security. New alliances amongst nations are forming, while some nations are reorienting their disease governance away from multilateral institutions. Meanwhile, bilateral
- [20 March 2025; Exploring Careers in Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/event-exploring-careers-in-existetial-risk/) - Date: 20 March 2025, 12 - 1pm Venue: The Meridian Office, 54 Sidney Street Cambridge CB2 3HX Curious about a career in preventing human extinction and civilization collapse? Join the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk for a discussion about study and career opportunities in the growing field of existential risk, from student opportunities
- [25 March 2025; Ethics and Existential Risk Studies Seminar](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ethics-and-existential-risk-studies-seminar/) - Date: 25 March 2025, 2-4.30 pm Venue: Syndics Room, 17 Mill Lane & Online This workshop will consider recent debates around the ethics of longtermism and human extinction and their role within the field of Existential Risk Studies. Each talk will provide a deep and engage reflection on common positions within the field and the
- [17th June 2025; Strategic Stability and Management of Catastrophic Risk in a Highly Competitive World seminar](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/strategic-stability-and-management-of-catastrophic-risk-in-a-highly-competitive-world-seminar-17th-june-2025/) - Strategic Stability and Management of Catastrophic Risk in a Highly Competitive World Date: 17 June 2025, 2-3.30pm Venue: Syndics Room & Online We all realise the risk of global catastrophe is terrifying, but it is the height of irresponsibility to wish away or underestimate the dynamics and objectives of powerful states. Nuclear deterrence is here
- [S. M. Amadae welcomed at reception in NYC](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/s-m-amadae-welcomed-at-reception-in-nyc/) - In May, Carl Feinberg hosted a reception at his Manhattan home alongside Cambridge in America to welcome Vice-Chancellor Deborah Prentice, CSER Director S. M. Amadae, and virtually, Lord Martin Rees. A long time supporter of CSER, Carl Feinberg explained why he felt it's important to support CSER. “I support CSER because we are in a
- [Tackling threats to informed decision-making in democratic societies: Promoting epistemic security in a technologically-advanced world](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/epistemic-security/) - Abstract Access to reliable information is crucial to the ability of a democratic society to coordinate effective collective action when responding to a crisis, like a global pandemic, or complex challenge like climate change. Through a series of workshops we developed and analysed a set of hypothetical yet plausible crisis scenarios to explore how technologically
- [The UK’s pandemic preparedness and early response to the COVID-19 pandemic](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/uks-pandemic-preparedness-and-early-response-covid-19-pandemic/) - Abstract This article focuses on the UK’s pre-COVID 19 pandemic preparedness and its early response to the COVID-19 pandemic (January ‘20 – March ‘20). The aim of this article is to explain the high excess mortality the UK experienced compared to many of its international and European peers in the first wave, which is contrary
- [International Governance through Domestic Law in the Forthcoming UK Frontier AI Bill](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/international-governance-through-domestic-law-in-the-forthcoming-uk-frontier-ai-bill/) - Executive Summary The government of the United Kingdom is currently in the process of developing a bill to regulate frontier AI. Such a bill must have an international scope because the companies seeking to create these systems are scattered around the world and because AI models and the effects that they cause travel easily across
- [Green Pan-Africanism: Normative power and the making of a regional sustainability order](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/green-pan-africanism-normative-power-and-the-making-of-a-regional-sustainability-order/) - Abstract This article examines the role of normative power in shaping the global sustainability order. It challenges the prevailing focus on hegemonic leadership and norm diffusion from dominant states, arguing that less powerful states have contributed significantly to the global order by creating regional initiatives tailored to their unique contexts. The article adopts an alternative
- [“Bounded States”: How (Extreme) Risk Constrains the Aspiration for Status](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bounded-states-how-extreme-risk-constrains-the-aspiration-for-status/) - Abstract We introduce the concept of “bounded states” to analyse how aspiration and risk (exposure and vulnerability to threats) shape the politics of status-seeking among states. We do so by examining how vulnerability to domestic and geopolitical threats constrain the aspiration of states for higher status in the international system, using the African Union Agenda
- [Frontiers of transnational governance of catastrophic risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/frontiers-of-transnational-governance-of-catastrophic-risk/) - Abstract This article reimagines risk governance to address systemic and catastrophic risks. Focusing on fragile states facing high exposure and vulnerabilities to threats, it reframes addressing catastrophic risk as a shared public good requiring collaborative action and cooperation. Through empirical analysis based on inferential statistics of sovereign credit ratings and an illustrative case study of
- [CSER April 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-april-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month's Newsletter: April 2025 In this month’s newsletter, we feature a new paper co-authored by CSER’s Charlotte Hammer, showing how near-source wastewater surveillance can offer earlier warnings of disease outbreaks than national systems. We also share new work on AI and biosecurity, global risk strategy in Africa, and a recording from our recent
- [CSER January 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-january-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month's Newsletter: January 2025 In this month’s newsletter, we announce a public lecture with Professor Rebecca Katz on Tuesday 4th February, where she will explore the current landscape and future of global health security and pandemic preparedness. This month’s newsletter also highlights recent publications from CSER researchers on topics including frontier AI transparency,
- [CSER February 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-february-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month's Newsletter: February 2025 In this month’s newsletter, we’re currently recruiting a Teaching Associate to support the launch of our new MPhil in Global Risk and Resilience, starting this autumn. Applications are open until 27 April 2025. We’re also hosting a public event, Exploring Careers in Existential Risk, on 20 March, offering insight
- [CSER Conferences](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-conferences/) - The Cambridge Catastrophic Risk Conference, CSER’s biennial conference, is aimed at researchers and policymakers working to understand and mitigate the greatest risks facing humanity. Since 2016, CSER has hosted a biennial conference focused on the core themes of our research. The conferences serve not only to address important issues facing the existential risk research community, but
- [Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2024](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cambridge-conference-on-catastrophic-risk-2024/) - Since 2016, CSER has held a biannual conference aimed at fostering the field of global catastrophic risk studies. Having established a close network of researchers, many of whom contributed to the recent collection of essays on the Era of Global Risk, this year’s event aims to grow that community further. Tickets - Sold Out
- [Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/power-drives-global-affairs-today-not-rules-what-africas-strategies-should-be/) - Drawing on new paper '“Bounded States”: How (Extreme) Risk Constrains the Aspiration for Status', Reuben Makomere & Ken Mbeva argue for a power-centred doctrine for African states (Bounded Pan-Africanism) in a new Op-Ed in the Conversation Africa. Ken Mbeva highlighted key take-aways from the article: • 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗿𝘂𝗹𝗲𝘀, 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘀 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗮𝗶𝗿𝘀, so Africa
- [The Ada Lovelace Institute: The UK’s industrial approach to AI – what’s next?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-ada-lovelace-institute-the-uks-industrial-approach-to-ai-whats-next/) - 11 November 2024, 5-6 pm Join the Ada Lovelace Institute as we make sense of the current AI policy landscape and debate the way forward for the UK's industrial approach to AI. AI has become an important industrial priority for countries across the world. The UK is no exception to this, with a succession of AI strategies published
- [Magma Rising: A Journey to the Centre of Icelandic Volcanoes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/magma-rising-a-journey-to-the-centre-of-icelandic-volcanoes/) - The Heong Gallery at Downing College, Cambridge is pleased to present Magma Rising: A Journey to the Centre of Icelandic Volcanoes. Inspired by research from Fellows at Downing College and Professors throughout the University of Cambridge, this exhibition on Icelandic volcanoes showcases a unique combination of science and the visual arts. Multidisciplinary collaborations between renowned
- [The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-existential-risk-research-assessment-terra/) - TERRA Project archived as of March 2025 From 2020 to 2025, through the use of crowdsourcing and machine learning, we produced an open-access bibliography of publications about existential risk and global catastrophic risk. Thank you to everyone who contributed to the project during this time. For more information, see our publication in Futures 'Accumulating evidence
- [CSER March 2025 Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-march-2025-newsletter/) - In This Month's Newsletter: March 2025 In this month’s newsletter, we’re excited to share a welcome note from CSER’s new Director, S.M. Amadae. A tenured political scientist at the University of Helsinki, S.M. Amadae's research focuses on nuclear war and security, climate change and collective action, and AI’s impact on human’s ability to govern catastrophic
- [Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extinction-of-the-human-species-what-could-cause-it-and-how-likely-is-it-to-occur/) - Human extinction is a high bar for any calamity to bring about. We occupy a wide range of environments all across the planet, and human intelligence allows us to identify, understand and respond to threats. But we are not invulnerable. In a new invited Review published in Cambridge Prisms: Extinction, CSER’s former Director Seán Ó
- [Exploring futures for the science of global risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/exploring-futures-for-the-science-of-global-risk/) - Abstract Recent years have seen the emergence of a dedicated community working to understand and mitigate the risk of global disasters (global risk). This community faces an uncertain future with key challenges emerging from the diversification of perspectives and theories of change within it and the growing frequency and intensity of global crises. This paper
- [Mail Online: Is humanity doomed?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/mail-online-is-humanity-doomed/) - Haydn Belfield spoke to the Mail Online about the potential time of the 2025 Doomsday Clock.
- [The Why Curve: What May Kill You in 2025](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-why-curve-what-may-kill-you-in-2025/) - Haydn Belfield spoke to The Why Curve about existential risk and the chances of global cataclysm.
- [Researchers Urge UN to Ban Autonomous Weapons](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/researchers-urge-un-to-ban-autonomous-weapons/) - Over 1000 researchers working in the field of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics have signed an open letter to the United Nations urging that the development and use of autonomous weapons be banned. Presented at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Buenos Aires, the letter includes signatures from CSER's co-founders Jaan Tallinn and Huw
- [Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/life-3-0-being-human-in-the-age-of-artificial-inte/) - There’s been much talk about AI disrupting the job market and enabling new weapons, but very few scientists talk seriously about the elephant in the room: what will happen once machines outsmart us at all tasks? That’s the topic of this exiting public lecture and why Prof Tegmark wrote his book “Life 3.0: Being
- [Open Letter for Robust AI Research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/open-letter/) - Over 70 AI scientists and AI safety researchers have signed an open letter calling for more research on robust and beneficial AI. The signatories included Berkeley AI Professor Stuart Russell, president of AAAI Tom Dietterich, Microsoft Research Director Eric Horvitz, both co-founders of Vicarious, all three co-founders of Google Deepmind and a half-dozen other
- [Reflections on the legacy of Sir Joseph Rotblat in a time of rising nuclear risk: the responsibility of scientists with Athene Donald](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reflections-legacy-sir-joseph-rotblat-time-rising/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and British Pugwash are pleased to host a public lecture by Professor Dame Athene Donald. Athene Donald will reflect on Sir Joseph Rotblat's enduring legacy in the face of increasing nuclear risks and the critical responsibilities of scientists in today's world. Athene Donald is Professor of Experimental Physics and Master of
- [CSER researchers and collaborators sign statement on the goals and values of our  community](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-researchers-and-collaborators-sign-statement/) - Catastrophic and Existential Risk Studies Essential Principles for Long-Term Survival We live in a new era of global risk, including an array of modern threats engineered by human beings. Some are truly existential for humanity, and our collective impact on the planet has already brought about the demise of many other species. Covid-19 – far
- [Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2016](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2016/) - The past five years have seen rapid growth in what Jaan Tallinn calls the “xrisk ecosystem” – a thriving community of researchers and others, inside and outside academia, united by a common interest in potential serious hazards of powerful and beneficial new technologies. This conference aims to bring this community together, to ask ourselves where
- [Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2018](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2018/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk held its second major conference at Jesus College, Cambridge, from 9am on the 17th to 6pm on the 18th April 2018. The conference discussed recent developments in the field of existential and global catastrophic risk research and specific challenges that have arisen in this work over recent
- [Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2020 – 2020 Hindsight: Our Final Century Revisited](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2020/) - The Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk '2020 Hindsight: Our Final Century Revisited’ (CCCR 2020) is our third major international conference taking place over 16-19 November 2020. It follows our ‘CCCR’ conferences in 2016 and 2018. The programme will draw on key themes from Lord Martin Rees’ seminal 2003 book Our Final Century, to reflect on
- [Law, Technology and Disruption Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/law-technology-and-disruption-conference/) - Technological changes and innovations are inevitable and very much linked to the success of a country. However, new technologies may represent a destructive power or at least a disruptive power to the current legal system that requires responses from every country. The conference is organized with the purpose of identifying the fundamental challenges raised by
- [Climate Exp0](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-exp0/) - Ellen Quigley will be on the panel Access to Finance discussing research on financial access including the gender gap, inequality, urban vs. rural and the use of digital technologies. Climate Exp0 is the first conference from the COP26 Universities Network and the Italian University Network for Sustainable Development (RUS), working together to raise ambition for tangible outcomes from the 2021
- [Cascading Climate Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cascading-climate-risks/) - On 29th September, Ellen Quigley will be participating in a panel about climate risks. Climate risk is not simply from hazards such as sea-level rise, heatwaves, and hurricanes. How societies respond to these impacts, or even climatic tipping points, will be critical. In this session we will explore potential tipping points in societal reactions: cascades
- [Effective Altruism Global: London 2021](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/effective-altruism-global-london-2021/) - More information coming soon
- [Cambridge Zero Climate Change Festival 2021](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cambridge-zero-climate-change-festival-2021/) - Last November the University of Cambridge launched its first global festival, dedicated to raising awareness of climate change and decarbonisation through engagement between academic and broader communities. This year we will build on this achievement by focusing on the important work our communities are doing in the run-up to COP26, the United Nations international climate
- [Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2022](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cambridge-conference-catastrophic-risk-2022/) - CSER’s biennial conference is the leading regular gathering for scholars and policymakers working to understand and mitigate the greatest risks facing humanity. This year's conference will focus on three themes: Future Risks, and how we can study them; Real Catastrophes, and what we can learn from them; and Global Solutions, and how we can achieve
- [Martin Rees: “Potential Utopian and Dystopian Futures”](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-potential-utopian-and-dystopian-future/) - CARTA public symposia typically begin by emphasizing that the primary goal of Anthropogeny is to explore and understand where we humans came from, and how we got here. Consequently, we usually limit discussion of current day implications, and the question of where we are going as a species. This time we will focus on the long and
- [Lara Mani and Rick Davies present at EES 2022](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lara-mani-and-rick-davies-present-ees-2022/) - On 9th June, Lara Mani and Rick Davies presented "Exploring And Evaluating Existential Risks: Process And Outcomes Of An International Participatory Exercise Examining Alternative Biotechnology Futures" at the 14th European Evalutation Society Biennial Conference. The research adopts the use of a new online participatory research tool ‘ParEvo’ to explore alternative possible futures with experts in
- [Clarissa Rios Rojas presented at the UN Global Platform for Distaster Risk Reduction Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/clarissa-rios-rojas-presented-un-global-platform-d/) - On 25th May, Clarissa Rios Rojas presented "Building a science-policy interface to tackle the global governance of global catastrophic and existential risks" at the UN Global Platform for Distaster Risk Reduction Conference. This presentation is a direct invitation to participants to join the science-policy interface expert group that is tackling the global governance of Global
- [Climate Law & Governance Day 2022](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-law-governance-day-2022/) - Luke Kemp will appear on the panel "Governing Resilience & Climate Repair". Focus Questions: What is meant by governing resilience in light of the Paris Agreement? What are the roles, benefits and drawbacks of decentralized / local approaches to climate resilient governance and repair? How important is indigenous knowledge in this process? The recent rise
- [The Seventh Cambridge-UTokyo Joint Symposium: Session 3 Biotechnology and Governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/seventh-cambridge-utokyo-joint-symposium-session-3/) - As part of the 7th Cambridge - UTokyo Joint Symposium, in the panel session "Biotechnology" and "Governance", scholars from Cambridge and UTokyo will explore various aspects of introducing biotechnology into society. Discussions include the governance of new and emerging biotechnology by Dr. Matsuo, CSER’s work on horizon-scanning and synthetic biology by Dr. Sundaram, global international processes related
- [Tipping Points: Climate tipping points – plenary session](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/tipping-points-climate-tipping-points-plenary-sess/) - Luke will appear at the Climate Tipping Point plenary session at University of Exeter Tipping Points conference Chair: Gaia Vince Speakers: Ricarda Winkelmann – Tipping points: warning signs from the polar ice sheets Stefan Rahmstorf – Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation approaching a tipping point? Niklas Boers – Anticipating Critical Transitions in the Earth System Luke Kemp – Climate Endgame: Exploring
- [World Science Forum: How Can Science Reboot Multilateralism and Global Secuity?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/world-science-forum-how-can-science-reboot-multila/) - Join CSER researcher, Clarissa Rios Rojas, for the Plenary session How Can Science Reboot Multilateralism and Global Secuity?The plenary session is part of The World Science Forum 2022. Speakers: Catherine Cesarsky, Chair, Council of the Square Kilometer Array Observatory Motoko Kotani, Science & Technology Co-Advisor, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Clarissa Rios Rojas, Research Associate, University of Cambridge (UK)
- [Cascading Failures, Compounding Risks, and Social Instability](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cascading-failures-compounding-risks-and-social-in/) - Droughts, storms, floods, wildfires, heatwaves, and similar weather-related events have been increasing in recent years. These billion-dollar disasters are expected to continue to increase over the next few decades due to climate change, putting stress on infrastructure, institutions, communities, and people. Predictions of future climate change are critical to preparing for impacts. Most planning for
- [4th International Conference on Anticipation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/4th-international-conference-anticipation/) - The Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory is hosting the 4th International Conference on Anticipation November 16th-18th 2022 at Arizona State University in Tempe, Arizona and a virtual conference on November 4th, 2022. The overarching aim of the conference and of the interdisciplinary field of Anticipation Studies is to create new understandings of how individuals,
- [Predictable AI: Evaluation, Anticipation and Control](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/predictable-ai-evaluation-anticipation-and-control/) - "Predictable AI: Evaluation, Anticipation and Control" is a singular event that will consist of invited talks, panels, short highlights and time for networking. In the morning, we will focus on “Predictable AI Systems”: covering cognitive and robust evaluation, assessors, co-operative conditions, uncertainty estimation, etc. In the afternoon, we will put the emphasis on “Predictable AI
- [Side Event on Autonomy & Topic 6 - Risk Mitigation and Confidence Measures](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/side-event-autonomy-topic-6-risk-mitigation-and-co/) - The European Union, the Philippines and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at theUniversity of Cambridge will be hosting a discussion under Topic 6 of the CCW GGE onEmerging Technologies in the Area of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems indicativetimetable, on the potential risks inherent in the use of autonomous weapons systems inweapon systems,
- [Dublin Tech Summit](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dublin-tech-summit/) - Dublin Tech Summit (DTS) is a two-day conference that sits at the heart of the international tech scene. As one of the world’s most active technology hubs, Dublin has become the EMEA base for some of the biggest global tech companies and over the last 6 years DTS has emerged as one of Europe’s fastest
- [AI Governance Talks: Institutions](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-governance-talks-institutions/) - ​Come discuss and learn about what international or national institutions might best govern frontier/advanced Artificial Intelligence. CERN? International Atomic Energy Agency? Or something different? ​We'll lots of drinks and snacks and time for networking. Confirmed speakers are: Lizi Zipser, Executive Director, Blue State Haydn Belfield, Researcher, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk Harry Law, Ethics and
- [Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2024](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cambridge-conference-catastrophic-risk-2024/) - Since 2016, CSER has held a biannual conference aimed at fostering the field of global catastrophic risk studies. Having established a close network of researchers, many of whom contributed to the recent collection of essays on the Era of Global Risk, this year’s event aims to grow that community further. The conference aims to break
- [Earth in its final century?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/earth-its-final-century/) - In a taut soliloquy that takes us from the origins of the universe to the last days of a dying sun 6 billion years later, renowned cosmologist Sir Martin Rees explains why the 21st century is a pivotal moment in the history of humanity: the first time in history when we can materially change ourselves
- [The Intelligence Stairway](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/intelligence-stairway/) - Jaan Tallinn, one of the founding engineers of Skype and a philosopher of modern technology, believes the impact of artificial intelligence has reached a crucial threshold. In his talk for Sydney Ideas at the University of Sydney he presents his model for the Intelligence Stairway.
- [Surviving the 21st Century](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/surviving-21st-century/) - On February 26th the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk held its inaugural public lecture public lecture on "Existential Risk: Surviving the 21st Century" alongside 80,000 Hours: Cambridge and Giving What We Can: Cambridge
- [Nukes of Hazard: Mapping the Relative Risks Emerging Technologies Pose to Nuclear Weapons Systems](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nukes-of-hazard/) - Dr Roff, Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford, discusses the risks the emerging technologies of artificial intelligence and automation pose to nuclear modernisation.
- [The Tragedy of the Uncommons](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/tragedy-uncommons/) - Professor Wiener, Professor of Law, Environmental Policy, and Public Policy, at Duke University, formulates a distinct type of problem: ‘the tragedy of the uncommons’, involving the misperception and mismanagement of rare catastrophic risks.
- [Overpopulation: A Driver of Climate Change?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/overpopulation-a-driver-of-climate-change/) - Professor Greaves, Professor of Philosophy at the University of Oxford, argues that the simple argument ‘higher population will lead to more climate change’ is flawed given a proper understanding of the physics of climate change. High population may indeed be damaging for reasons related to climate change, but if so, the reasons for this are
- [Collective Awareness: A Vision of a New Economics and Risk Reduction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/collective-awareness-vision-new-economics-and-risk-reduction/) - Professor Farmer, Director of the Complexity Economics program at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, presents an alternative vision of the economics of the future, with a much stronger emphasis on our ability to simulate the world.
- [Deep Learning: Artificial Intelligence Meets Human Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/professor-terrence-sejnowski-deep-learning-artificial-intelligence-meets-human-intelligence/) - Professor Sejnowski, President of the Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS) Foundation – which organises an annual conference attended by over 6000 researchers in machine learning and neural computation – discusses the past, present and future of deep learning. This event was part of the Hauser-Raspe Visiting Expert Programme.
- [Responsibility and Inequality in a Risky World](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/responsibility-and-inequality-risky-world/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s April 2017 Lecture, with Professor Heather Douglas. Professor Douglas, a philosopher of science who focuses on the proper understanding of science given its important role in public policy, argues that the responsibility to think through the risks that come with knowledge production can never be fully removed from
- [Climate Change, Morphing into an Existential Threat](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-change-morphing-existential-threat/) - This March 2017 lecture was organised by the Centre for Science and Policy in partnership with Professor Charles Kennel, Christ’s College and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. It was filmed as part of the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series. Professor Ramanathan, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences at the University of California, San Diego, discussed the
- [Extreme risk management in the policy environment](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-risk-management-in-the-policy-environment/)
- [Opening Session Part 2](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/opening-session-part-2/)
- [Lessons from Efforts to Mitigate the Risks of “Dual Use” Research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lessons-from-efforts-to-mitigate-risks-of-dual-use-research/)
- [Words Of Caution On Making Objects Of Security Concern](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/words-of-caution-on-making-objects-security-concern/)
- [Young Researchers & Responsible Conduct of Science: Successes and failures](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/young-researchers-responsible-conduct-science-successes-and-failures/)
- [AI Safety: Past, Present, Future](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-safety-past-present-future/)
- [The Limits of AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/limits-of-ai/)
- [Artificial Intelligence: Taking the long run seriously](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/artificial-intelligence-taking-long-run-seriously/)
- [Climate Change: Catastrophe, Hoax or Just “Lukewarm”?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-change-catastrophe-hoax-or-just-lukewarm/)
- [Land Use, Biodiversity Loss And Possible Impacts On Ecosystem Function](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/land-use-biodiversity-loss-and-possible-impacts-ecosystem-function/)
- [Avoiding Species Extinction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/avoiding-species-extinction/)
- [Technology: Transparency vs Privacy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/technology-transparency-vs-privacy-katyal/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s November 2016 Lecture, with Professor Neal Katyal. Professor Katyal, one of the top US Supreme Court advocates as well as the Paul Saunders Professor of National Security Law at Georgetown University, contrasts European and American approaches to data privacy, digital security, and transparency, with an eye on recent
- [Who Actually Controls Public Companies And In Whose Interest Are They Run?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/who-actually-controls-public-companies-and-whose-interest-are-they-run/)
- [Feeding everyone no matter what](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/feeding-everyone-no-matter-what/)
- [Hilary Greaves Blavatnik Public Lecture - Extinction Risk and Population Ethics](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/blavatnik-public-lecture-greaves/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s June 2016 Lecture, with Professor Hilary Greaves. How important is it that we reduce the risk of human extinction? This depends sensitively on fundamental questions in moral theory. On the one hand, if humanity goes extinct prematurely, vast amounts of well-being will be lost – all the well-being
- [Professor Paul Ehrlich Blavatnik Public Lecture - Population, Environment, Extinction and Ethics](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/blavatnik-public-lecture-ehrlich/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s May 2016 Lecture, with Professor Paul Ehrlich. Prof Ehrlich received early inspiration to study ecology. When in his high school years he read William Vogt’s Road to Surivival, an early study of the problem of rapid population growth and food production. He graduated in zoology from the University
- [Charles Kennel, Stephen Briggs Public Lecture - Planetary Vital Signs](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/blavatnik-public-lecture-series-kennel-briggs/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s February 2016 Lecture, with Professors Charles Kennel and Stephen Briggs. Professor Charles Kennel highlights the importance of acknowledging that climate change is not only measurable and noticeable by looking at global temperature, but that assessing a set of planetary vital signs plays a crucial role as well. By
- [Lucid AI’s Ethics Advisory Panel](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lucid-ais-ethics-advisory-panel/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s January 2016 Lecture, with Kay Firth-Butterfield. Lucid is an AI company with an Ethics Advisory Panel which is led by Kay Firth-Butterfield. She will talk about the Panel’s composition and mandate and why the company thinks it is important. Also, she will discuss how the Panel ties to
- [Pushing the Limits](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/pushing-limits/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s November 2015 Lecture, with Professor Jane Heal. What do theory of evolution, intellectual history and philosophy tell us about what we human beings are like? And what resources – intellectual, emotional, moral – we can muster for dealing with the existential risks of our current situation? The talk
- [Human-level AI: Is it Looming or Illusory?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/human-level-ai-is-it-looming-or-illusory/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s June 2015 Lecture, with Professor Margaret Boden. Human-level (“general”) AI is more difficult to achieve than most people think. One key obstacle is relevance, a conceptual version of the frame problem. Another is lack of the semantic web. Yet another is the difficulty of computer vision. So artificial
- [The Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/long-term-future-artificial-intelligence/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s May 2015 Lecture, with Professor Stuart Russell. The news media in recent months have been full of dire warnings about the risk that AI poses to the human race, coming from well-known figures such as Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates. Should we be concerned? If so, what can we
- [Will We Cause Our Own Extinction? Natural versus Anthropogenic Extinction Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/will-we-cause-our-own-extinction-natural-versus-anthropogenic-extinction-risks/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s April 2015 Lecture, with Dr Toby Ord. How will humanity go extinct? Is it more likely to be from natural causes such as an asteroid impact or anthropogenic causes such as a nuclear war? Using the fossil record, we can place a rough upper bound on the probability
- [Minds Like Ours: An Approach to AI Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/minds-ours-approach-ai-risk/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s February 2015 Lecture, with Professor Murrary Shanahan. Writers who speculate about the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and its attendant risks often caution against anthropomorphism, the tendency to ascribe human-like characteristics to something non human. An AI that is engineered from first principles will attain its goals in
- [Risks and Benefits of Gain-of-Function Experiments in Potentially Pandemic Pathogens](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/risks-and-benefits-gain-function-experiments-potentially-pandemic-pathogens/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s January 2015 Lecture, with Professor Marc Lipsitch and Professor Derek Smith. A growing trend in experimental virology has been the modification of influenza viruses that are antigenically novel to, and virulent in humans, such that these variant viruses are readily transmissible in mammals, including ferrets which are
- [Are we risking our existence?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/are-we-risking-our-existence/) - If we want to create a sustainable future, we need to understand the risks inherent in scientific research so that we can balance these with the benefits of discovery and innovation and protect ourselves from existential risk.
- [Theoretical Physicist – The Theory of Everything](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/theoretical-physicist-theory-everything/) - A talk by CSER Advisor Professor Stephen Hawking on Artificial Intelligence at Google Zeigeist.
- [Political Obligation Lectures](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/political-obligation-lectures/) - SJ Beard delivered a series of lectures on the theme of Political Obligation to undergraduates in philosophy at the University of Cambridge. Lecture 1: Classical Social Contract Theory Lecture 1 outlined the nature of political obligation as a problem in political philosophy and considered the potential of classical social contract theory to solve it. Philosophers discussed
- [Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/being-human-age-artificial-intelligence/) - There’s been much talk about AI disrupting the job market and enabling new weapons, but very few scientists talk seriously about the elephant in the room: what will happen once machines outsmart us at all tasks? That’s the topic of this exiting public lecture and why Prof Tegmark wrote his book “Life 3.0: Being Human
- [Arkhipov Family awarded Future of Life Award](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/arkhipov-family/) - On October 27, 1962, a soft-spoken naval officer named Vasili Arkhipov single-handedly prevented nuclear war during the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Arkhipov's submarine captain, thinking their submarine was under attack by American forces, wanted to launch a nuclear weapon at the ships above. Arkhipov, with the power of veto, said no, averting nuclear war. On October 27,
- [Existential Risk: Managing Extreme Technological Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stories-impact/) - Of the 45 million centuries of the Earth’s history, this one is very special. It is the first century that one species – us – hold the future of the planet in our hands. Take a fast-paced tour through our work on biological risks, environmental risks, artificial intelligence risks and more with the Astronomer Royal, Lord
- [Meat, Monkeys, and Mosquitoes: A One Health Perspective on Emerging Diseases​](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/laura-kahn-meat-monkeys-and-mosquitoes-one-health-perspective-emerging-diseases/) - Agriculture is the foundation of civilization. Food security from agriculture enabled the growth of cities; cities led to nations, and nations discovered the science and technology that allowed our numbers to grow. But agriculture comes with costs including deforestation, environmental destruction, and emerging diseases. Meeting the growing world population’s demand for food, especially meat, while
- [How to (Re)Use Big Data](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sabina-leonelli-how-reuse-big-data/) - Big data bring great opportunities for both understanding the complex world we live in and making our lives better—but they are also ripe for misuse. In many areas of increasingly powerful technologies allow researchers to generate a whole lot of data, which are then disseminated via digital databases. Having heaps of data available online sounds
- [The Public International Law Perspective on Evaluating Existential Risks (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/public-international-law-perspective-evaluating-existential-risks-cccr2018/) - Silja Vöneky is Professor of Public International Law, Comparative Law, and Ethics of Law at the University of Freiburg (Germany) and member of the Legal Advisory Board of the German Federal Foreign Office. Prof Vöneky presented an overview of different approaches to evaluating catastrophic risks that exist in the area of public international law. She
- [Black Elephants (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/black-elephants-cccr2018/) - Peter Ho is the Senior Advisor to the Centre for Strategic Futures, a Senior Fellow in the Civil Service College, and a Visiting Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. He was previously Head of the Singaporean Civil Service. Mr Ho argued that we face many big dangers, with many of them
- [Communicating (Existential) Risks Responsibly (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/communicating-existential-risks-responsibly-cccr2018/) - Alexandra Freeman is Executive Director of the Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. Catastrophic risks may be high impact (by definition), but are – fortunately – very rare. However, Dr Freeman argued, this makes them particularly difficult for us to mitigate against effectively. Communicating risks clearly is always a
- [Understanding Risk for effective communication (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/understanding-risk-effective-communication-cccr2018/) - Kristel Fourie has worked as a researcher at the African Centre for Disaster Studies at the North-West University for the past 10 years. Dr Fourie discussed challenges in communicating risk, such as the multidisciplinary nature of (disaster) risk, making (disaster) risk newsworthy for mass media, and having to compete with different belief systems and perceptions
- [Risk Innovation: The roles of creativity, imagination and rigour in exploring existential risk (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/risk-innovation-roles-creativity-imagination-and-rigour-exploring-existential-risk-cccr2018/) - Andrew Maynard is Director of the Arizona State University Risk Innovation Lab. Prof Maynard argued that in areas such as autonomous vehicles, gene editing, and artificial intelligence, the nature of emergent risks and benefits often lies beyond the scope of many conventional risk frameworks. This is especially apparent where emerging knowledge, capabilities and trends are
- [Sexy vs Unsexy catastrophic risks: complexity, creeping normalcy, and conceit (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sexy-vs-unsexy-catastrophic-risks-complexity-creeping-normalcy-and-conceit-cccr2018/) - Karin Kuhlemann is a lawyer and a PhD candidate at University College London. Karin sets out a typology of sexy vs unsexy catastrophic risks. ‘Sexy’ risks get more resources and air time, while ‘unsexy’ risks tend to be neglected, downplayed, and/or re-characterised as something else. These different responses are not necessarily rational, and are best
- [How soon will the ice apocalypse come? (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-soon-will-ice-apocalypse-come-cccr2018/) - Tamsin Edwards is a Lecturer in Physical Geography at King’s College London and a lead author of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. In 2016 a high-profile study made predictions for the Antarctic ice sheet response to climate change that would double predictions for total sea level rise this century and change the shape of global
- [Probabilities, methodologies and the evidence base in existential risk assessments (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/probabilities-methodologies-and-evidence-base-existential-risk-assessments-cccr2018/) - Simon Beard is a Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), University of Cambridge. Dr Beard explores a range of methodologies that have been proposed for making useful claims about the probability of phenomena that would contribute to existential risk. He also makes some suggestions to improve best practice in
- [Making the Most of Limited Evidence In Global Catastrophic Risk Analysis (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/making-most-limited-evidence-global-catastrophic-risk-analysis-cccr2018/) - Seth Baum is Co-Founder and Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, a US non-profit think tank. Global catastrophic risks and existential risks are characterized by a fundamental limitation of evidence due to the fact that global human civilization has never previously been destroyed. Whereas traditional risk analysis uses empirical datasets on a given
- [Discounting, aggregation and the ecological fallacy (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/discounting-aggregation-and-ecological-fallacy-cccr2018/) - Matthew Rendall is Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham. A common justification for discounting future costs and benefits is that if we did not, nearly any sacrifice could be demanded from the present generation. Conventional discounting, on the other hand, causes even catastrophic damages to disappear, provided that they occur
- [Introduction to the 2018 Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/introduction-2018-cambridge-conference-catastrophic-risk/) - Catherine Rhodes is a Senior Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), University of Cambridge. Dr Rhodes introduced the 2018 Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk (CCCR2018), CSER’s major international conference, supported by the Templeton World Charity Foundation. It focused on four challenges faced by research communities focused on existential and
- [Zia Mian: A Conceivable Horizon of Horror (30 Oct 2019)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-public-lecture-zia-mian/) - Zia Mian - A Conceivable Horizon of Horror: Current Crises of Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament (30 October 2019, CSER Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) Zia Mian is a physicist and co-director of Princeton University's Program on Science and Global Security, part of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, where he has
- [Grethe Helene Evjen: Svalbard Global Seed Vault - Saving Seeds for Eternity (18 Nov 2019)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/grethe-helene-evjen-svalbard-global-seed-vault-saving-seeds-eternity-18-nov-2019/) - Grethe Helene Evjen - Svalbard Global Seed Vault: Saving Seeds for Eternity (18 November 2019, CSER Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) Grethe Helene Evjen is a Senior Advisor at the Norwegian Ministry of Agriculture and Food. She will discuss her role in establishing and coordinating the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, and its global role in
- [Why is the Doomsday Clock the closest its ever been to Midnight?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/doomsday-clock/) - Explained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' President and CEO, Rachel Bronson, in this Public Lecture for the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. What does 'Midnight' mean? What goes into assessing the Doomsday Clock time? And how confident should we be in that time? Rachel Bronson
- [CCCR 2020 - Pre-2000: What global catastrophic risk researchers can learn from the history of global catastrophic risk.](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2020-pre-2000-what-global-catastrophic-risk-researchers-can-learn-history-global-catastrophic-risk/) - Pre-2000: What global catastrophic risk researchers can learn from the history of global catastrophic risk. The study of global catastrophic risk often feels like it is still in its infancy with seminal works like Our Final Century as its founding studies. However, in truth, people have been worried about global catastrophes for centuries with early
- [CCCR 2020 - 50/50: assessing the chances of a global catastrophe](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2020-5050-assessing-chances-global-catastrophe/) - 50/50: assessing the chances of a global catastrophe. One of the most eye-catching statements in ‘Our Final Century’ was the claim that humanity has a 50/50 chance of making it to 2100 without enduring a truly global catastrophe. Many other global catastrophic risk scholars have made similar predictions of their own, but there is no
- [CCCR 2020 - Are we nearly there yet? Taking the long and longer term view of humanity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2020-are-we-nearly-there-yet-taking-long-and-longer-term-view-humanity/) - Are we nearly there yet? Taking the long and longer term view of humanity. Questions about global catastrophic risk are intimately bound up with questions about the long-term future of humanity and our place in the universe. Many of the low-probability/high-impact risk scenarios that GCR scholars are most concerned about are intergenerational in nature and
- [CCCR 2020 - Global Justice and Global Catastrophic Risk: between error and terror](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2020-global-justice-and-global-catastrophic-risk-between-error-and-terror/) - Global Justice and Global Catastrophic Risk: between error and terror. One of the most enduring legacies of Our Final Century? has been its consideration of the role that individuals play in bringing about global catastrophes, whether by accident (error) or on purpose (terror). The book makes a strong case that error is at least as
- [CCCR 2020 - Threats without enemies: natural global disasters and their consequences](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2020-threats-without-enemies-natural-global-disasters-and-their-consequences/) - Threats without enemies: natural global disasters and their consequences. As Martin Rees set out in ‘Our Final Century’, humanity has lived with certain global catastrophic risks throughout history. Naturally occurring catastrophic hazards such as asteroid impact, super-volcanic eruptions and solar flares, are all capable of pushing humanity toward extinction. These ‘natural’ global disasters form something
- [CCCR 2020 - Governing Science: Does it matter who is doing our scientific research and why?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2020-governing-science-does-it-matter-who-doing-our-scientific-research-and-why/) - Governing Science: Does it matter who is doing our scientific research and why? Our Final Century makes the case for scientists to take seriously the threat of global catastrophic risks, not only because we are well informed about these risks and how to respond to them but because, in many cases, we are responsible for
- [CCCR 2020 - Global Catastrophic Environmental Risks: systemic collapse from anthropogenic environmental change](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2020-global-catastrophic-environmental-risks-systemic-collapse-anthropogenic-environmental-change/) - Global Catastrophic Environmental Risks: systemic collapse from anthropogenic environmental change Since the publication of Our Final Century? in 2003, perhaps the largest growth in public awareness of global catastrophic risk has related to environmental risks from anthropogenic climate change and loss of biosphere integrity. The need for urgent global action to address these problems is
- [S.J. Beard presented Evidence to the House of Lords Inquiry into Risk Assessment and Risk Planning](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/simon-beard-presented-evidence-house-lords-inquiry-risk-assessment-and-risk-planning/) - CSER’s academic programme manager SJ Beard gave oral evidence to an inquiry session on technological risk. SJ's evidence describes the current UK risk assessment and risk planning process and its suitability for assessing technological risks. Key difficulties are the short time horizon and threat focus of the UK's National Security Risk Assessment, and the fact that
- [Catherine Rhodes presented Evidence to the House of Lords Inquiry into Risk Assessment and Risk Planning](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/catherine-rhodes-presented-evidence-house-lords-inquiry-risk-assessment-and-risk-planning/) - CSER’s Executive Director, Catherine Rhodes, gave evidence at the 3rd February 2021 session of the House of Lords Select Committee on Risk Assessment and Risk Planning, which focused on biological risks and biosecurity. The session mainly addressed questions around the implementation of the 2018 UK Biological Security Strategy, the UK’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and
- ['Sunlight, but dreaming' Audio Artwork](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sunlight-dreaming-audio-artwork/) - Sunlight, but dreaming is an audio artwork by artist Bram Thomas Arnold and CSER Researcher Lauren Holt created as part of their research contributing to the recently published Dasgupta Review into the Economics of Biodiversity. The piece was created through a remote workshop, inviting philosophers, thinkers and theologians to comment on the non-instrumental and non-economic
- [Launch of Pathways to Linking Science and Policy in the Field of Global Risk Video](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/launch-pathways-linking-science-and-policy-field-global-risk-video/) - On 7th June 2021, CSER and the Centre for Science and Policy (CSaP), University of Cambridge, presented an online launch event for the report, ‘Pathways to Linking Science and Policy in the Field of Global Risk’. This report has been developed to help guide and enhance the policy engagement efforts of researchers at CSER and
- [Video: Doom and Doubt: Uncertain Futures & Open Questions about Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/doom-and-doubt/) - On 1st July 2021, CSER presented the first of it's summer panels, "Doom and Doubt: Uncertain Futures & Open Questions about Existential Risk" In this panel, three CSER researchers from very different backgrounds discussed how we can have frank, open, and vulnerable conversations about worst-case future scenarios that fully explore our biggest doubts, uncertainties, and
- [Video: Why Didn't Technology Save Us From Covid-19?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/why-didnt-technology-save-us-covid-19/) - On 16th July 2021, CSER presented the panel, "Why Didn't Technology Save Us From Covid-19?" With billions in biomedical R&D over decades, a globally available genomic sequence of SARS-Cov-2 in January 2020, and global test, trace and vaccine efforts - why have there been millions of excess deaths? The panellists explored themes of context, social
- [Video: Who is Creating Existential Risk? (Why, and Why Should We Care?)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-who-creating-existential-risk-why-and-why-should-we-care/) - On 25th August 2021, CSER presented the panel, "Who is Creating Existential Risk? (Why, and Why Should We Care?)" Who or what are the primary creators of global risk? Should we be most concerned about individuals like the lone rogue scientist or hooded hacker, or place more responsibility with larger actors such as large corporations
- [Video: Mark Lynas: Don't Look Up: Is Climate Change an Extinction-Level Event?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-mark-lynas-dont-look-climate-change-extinction-level-event/) - Mark Lynas - "Don't Look Up: Is Climate Change an Extinction-Level Event?" (1 February 2022, CSER Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) In the movie Don't Look Up, humanity dithers when faced with an extinction-level threat from a comet and is wiped out. Designed explicitly as an analogy for what the moviemakers see as our collective
- [Video: Paul & Scott Slovic: The More Who Die, the Less We Care](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-paul-scott-slovic-more-who-die-less-we-care/) - Paul and Scott Slovic - "The More Who Die, the Less We Care" (15 March 2022, CSER Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) To help society to prevent or mitigate catastrophic losses of life, immense effort and technological sophistication are employed to assess and communicate the size and scope of such losses. This assumes that people
- [CCCR 2022 - Day 2 Videos](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2022-day-2/) - Day 2 - Wednesday 20 April 2022 Robin Gorna Communicating Risk and Uncertainty. Lessons Across Pandemics: From AIDS to COVID followed by panel Learning From COVID-19 and Other Disasters with reflections from Julius Weitzdörfer, Lalitha Sundaram, Jochem Rietveld. Bryan Walsh, Reporting On the End of the World: The Challenge of Covering Long-Term Risks in a
- [CCCR 2022 - Day 3 Videos](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cccr-2022-day-3-video/) - Day 3 - Thursday 21 April 2022 Jenty Kirsch-Wood UNDRR’s Preparation for Systemic and Cascading GCRs followed by panel Implementing Global Solutions with reflections from James Ginns, Max Stauffer, Shin-Shin Hua. Oliver Letwin Planning for Catastrophe: Why Resilience Equals Fallback
- [Competition law is one of the most important levers for AI governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/competition-law-levers/) - Haydn Belfield presented Shin-Shin Hua and his work at the Effective Altruism Global: San Francisco 2022 conference. Haydn explains why competition law is so important, in the near- and longer-term, as it is synergistic and in tension with AI governance. He first introduces antitrust for people not familiar. He then shows how 14 proposed forms
- [Video: Climate tipping points – plenary session](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-climate-tipping-points-plenary-session/) - Luke spoke at the Climate Tipping Point plenary session at University of Exeter Tipping Points conference alongside other speakers including: Ricarda Winkelmann – Tipping points: warning signs from the polar ice sheets Stefan Rahmstorf – Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation approaching a tipping point? Niklas Boers – Anticipating Critical Transitions in the Earth System Ashish Ghadiali – Climate justice in the
- [Accounting for the Neglected Dimensions of AI Progress](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dimensions-ai-progress/) - Abstract: We analyze and reframe AI progress. In addition to the prevailing metrics of performance, we highlight the usually neglected costs paid in the development and deployment of a system, including: data, expert knowledge, human oversight, software resources, computing cycles, hardware and network facilities, development time, etc. These costs are paid throughout the life cycle
- [Working together to face humanity’s greatest threats: Introduction to the Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/working-together-face-humanitys-greatest-threats-introduction-future-research-catastrophic-and-existential-risk/) - Highlights The special issue brings together a wide range of research on existential and catastrophic risk. Research into existential and catastrophic risk is increasingly multi-disciplinary and broad in scope. We consider how existential risk is conceptualized as well as challenges in communication, responsibility and epistemology. This paper was published in a Special Issue of Futures edited
- [Bridging near- and long-term concerns about AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bridging-concerns-about-ai/) - Abstract Debate about the impacts of AI is often split into two camps, one associated with the near term and the other with the long term. This divide is a mistake — the connections between the two perspectives deserve more attention. Read full paper
- [Artificial intelligence in a crisis needs ethics with urgency](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/artificial-intelligence-crisis-needs-ethics-urgency/) - Abstract Artificial intelligence tools can help save lives in a pandemic. However, the need to implement technological solutions rapidly raises challenging ethical issues. We need new approaches for ethics with urgency, to ensure AI can be safely and beneficially used in the COVID-19 response and beyond. Read full paper
- [Exploring AI Safety in Degrees: Generality, Capability and Control](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/exploring-ai-safety-degrees-generality-capability-and-control/) - Abstract The landscape of AI safety is frequently explored differently by contrasting specialised AI versus general AI (or AGI), by analysing the short-term hazards of systems with limited capabilities against those more long-term risks posed by ‘superintelligence’, and by conceptualising sophisticated ways of bounding control an AI system has over its environment and itself (impact,
- [AI Paradigms and AI Safety: Mapping Artefacts and Techniques to Safety Issues](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-paradigms-and-ai-safety-mapping-artefacts-and-techniques-safety-issues/) - Abstract AI safety often analyses a risk or safety issue, such as interruptibility, under a particular AI paradigm, such as reinforcement learning. But what is an AI paradigm and how does it affect the understanding and implications of the safety issue? Is AI safety research covering the most representative paradigms and the right combinations of
- [The Scientometrics of AI Benchmarks: Unveiling the Underlying Mechanics of AI Research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/scientometrics-ai-benchmarks/) - Abstract The widespread use of experimental benchmarks in AI research has created new competition and collaboration dynamics that are still poorly understood. In this paper we provide an innovative methodology to explore this dynamics and analyse the way different entrants in these competitions, from academia to tech giants, behave and react depending on their own
- [Universal Ownership in Practice: A Practical Positive Investment Framework for Asset Owners](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/universal-ownership-practice/) - Abstract Universal owners such as pension funds, insurance companies, university endowments, and sovereign wealth funds have an interest in the long-term health of the financial system as a whole (Hawley and Williams 2000; Dimson et al. 2013; Quigley 2019). These asset owners cannot diversify away from systemic risks such as climate change, inequality, and pandemics,
- [Fragmentation and the Future: Investigating Architectures for International AI Governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/fragmentation-and-future-investigating-architectures-international-ai-governance/) - Abstract The international governance of artificial intelligence (AI) is at a crossroads: should it remain fragmented or be centralised? We draw on the history of environment, trade, and security regimes to identify advantages and disadvantages in centralising AI governance. Some considerations, such as efficiency and political power, speak for centralisation. The risk of creating a
- [80 Questions for UK Biological Security](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/80-questions-uk-biological-security/) - Abstract Multiple national and international trends and drivers are radically changing what biological security means for the United Kingdom (UK). New technologies present novel opportunities and challenges, and globalisation has created new pathways and increased the speed, volume and routes by which organisms can spread. The UK Biological Security Strategy (2018) acknowledges the importance of research on
- [Bridging the gap: the case for an ‘Incompletely Theorized Agreement’ on AI policy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bridging-gap-case-incompletely-theorized-agreement-ai-policy/) - Abstract Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) raises a wide array of ethical and societal concerns. Accordingly, an appropriate policy approach is urgently needed. While there has been a wave of scholarship in this field, the research community at times appears divided amongst those who emphasize ‘near-term’ concerns and those focusing on ‘long-term’ concerns and
- [Assessing Climate Change’s Contribution to Global Catastrophic Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/assessing-climate-changes-contribution-global-catastrophic-risk/) - Abstract Many have claimed that climate change is an imminent threat to humanity, but there is no way to verify such claims. This is concerning, especially given the prominence of some of these claims and the fact that they are confused with other well verified and settled aspects of climate science. This paper seeks to
- [Foresight for unknown, long-term and emerging risks, Approaches and Recommendations](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/foresight-unknown-long-term-and-emerging-risks-approaches-and-recommendations/) - CSER researchers, led by Clarissa Rios Rojas, produced a detailed summary of foresight, futures and horizon scanning techniques that we have developed for the study of extreme risks and that could be implemented within the UK policy context. This was a submission of evidence to The House of Lords Select Committee on Risk Assessment and
- [Using AI ethically to tackle covid-19](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/using-ai-ethically-tackle-covid-19/) - Taking a principled approach is crucial to the successful use of AI in pandemic management, say Stephen Cave and colleagues. Abstract In a crisis such as the covid-19 pandemic, governments and health services must act quickly and decisively to stop the spread of the disease. Artificial intelligence (AI), which in this context largely means increasingly powerful
- [Biography of Derek Parfit](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biography-derek-parfit/) - SJ Beard self-published a short biography of the philosopher Derek Parfit, with whom they had previously worked. Derek Parfit was well known for his contributions to ethics and the philosophy of personhood, most famously in his 1984 book Reasons and Persons. While he was primarily known as a highly theoretical and speculative philosopher, Parfit was
- [Does “AI” stand for augmenting inequality in the era of covid-19 healthcare?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/does-ai-stand-augmenting-inequality-era-covid-19-healthcare/) - Artificial intelligence can help tackle the covid-19 pandemic, but bias and discrimination in its design and deployment risk exacerbating existing health inequity argue David Leslie and colleagues. Abstract Among the most damaging characteristics of the covid-19 pandemic has been its disproportionate effect on disadvantaged communities. As the outbreak has spread globally, factors such as systemic racism,
- [AI, Governance Displacement, and the (De)Fragmentation of International Law](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-governance-displacement-and-defragmentation-international-law/) - Abstract The emergence, proliferation, and use of new general-purpose technologies can often produce significant political, redistributive, normative and legal effects on the world. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been identified as one such transformative technology. Many of its impacts may require global governance responses. However, what are the direct and indirect effects of AI technologies on
- [Future Foods For Risk-Resilient Diets](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/future-foods-risk-resilient-diets/) - Radical changes to the food system are needed to safeguard our food supply and combat malnutrition in the face of climate change, environmental degradation and epidemics. Abstract: Future foods, such as microalgae, mycoprotein and mealworm, have been suggested as nutritious and sustainable dietary options. Here we consider one of the most profound, yet neglected, benefits of
- [Special Section: Population and Ethics in The Journal of Development Studies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/special-section-population-and-ethics-journal-development-studies/) - S. J. Beard, Partha Dasgupta and Natalie Jones have co-edited a special section in The Journal of Development Studies on population ethics and 21st-century demography. The papers in this section seek to break out of stale debates and false dichotomies in the field of population ethics by bringing together demographic and philosophical perspectives on population change
- [Aligning AI Regulation to Sociotechnical Change](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/aligning-ai-regulation-sociotechnical-change/) - Abstract How do we regulate a changing technology, with changing uses, in a changing world? This chapter argues that while existing (inter)national AI governance approaches are important, they are often siloed. Technology-centric approaches focus on individual AI applications; law-centric approaches emphasize AI’s effects on pre-existing legal fields or doctrines. This chapter argues that to foster
- [Ten tips for overcoming language barriers in science](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ten-tips-overcoming-language-barriers-science/) - Ten tips for overcoming language barriers in science Abstract: Language barriers have serious consequences in science, causing inequality for under-represented communities, making non-English-language knowledge inaccessible, and impeding the uptake of science by decision-makers. Read Full Paper
- [Global catastrophic risk from lower magnitude volcanic eruptions](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-catastrophic-risk-lower-magnitude-volcanic-eruptions/) - Abstract Globalisation supports the clustering of critical infrastructure systems, sometimes in proximity to lower-magnitude (VEI 3–6) volcanic centres. In this emerging risk landscape, moderate volcanic eruptions might have cascading, catastrophic effects. Risk assessments ought to be considered in this light. Read full paper
- [Why and How Governments Should Monitor AI Development](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/why-and-how-governments-should-monitor-ai-development/) - Abstract Governments face a range of policy challenges from AI technologies, which are developed and deployed at a speed that traditional governance approaches cannot keep pace with. This results in a situation where private companies are able to deploy AI systems with substantial potential for harm or misuse in mostly unregulated markets, and governments are
- [Self-Determination and the Right of Peoples to Participate in International Law-Making](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/self-determination-and-right-peoples-participate-international-law-making/) - Abstract In recent decades, peoples have frequently asserted a right to participate in the international legal order, and have participated in various international law-making and regulatory processes carried out under the auspices of intergovernmental organizations. However, while self-determination has long been understood to encompass a right to participation at the national level, the case for
- [AI & Antitrust: Reconciling Tensions Between Competition Law and Cooperative AI Development](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-antitrust-reconciling-tensions-between-competition-law-and-cooperative-ai-development/) - Abstract Cooperation between companies developing artificial intelligence (AI) can help them create AI systems that are safe, secure, and with broadly shared benefits. Researchers have proposed a range of cooperation strategies, ranging from redistributing “windfall” profits to assistance to address the harmful dynamics of a competitive race for technological superiority. A critical tension arises, however,
- [Mitigating losses: how scientific organisations can help address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on early-career researchers](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/mitigating-losses-how-scientific-organisations-can-help-address-impact-covid-19-pandemic-early-career-researchers/) - Abstract Scientific collaborations among nations to address common problems and to build international partnerships as part of science diplomacy is a well-established notion. The international flow of people and ideas has played an important role in the advancement of the ‘Sciences’ and the current pandemic scenario has drawn attention towards the genuine need for a
- [On Theory X and What Matters Most](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/theory-x-and-what-matters-most/) - One of Derek Parfit’s greatest legacies was the search for Theory X, a theory of population ethics that avoided all the implausible conclusions and paradoxes that have dogged the field since its inception: the Absurd Conclusion, the Repugnant Conclusion, the Non-Identity Problem, and the Mere Addition Paradox. In recent years, it has been argued that this search
- [Extreme Risks and UK National Resilience Strategy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-risks-and-uk-national-resilience-strategy/) - A new joint paper by Future of Humanity Institute, CSER and The Centre for Long-Term Resilience, discusses the UK's national resilience strategy and suggests steps to improve resilience. Read Full paper
- [Responsible artificial intelligence in agriculture requires systemic understanding of risks and externalities](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/responsible-artificial-intelligence-agriculture-requires-systemic-understanding-risks-and-externalities/) - Abstract Global agriculture is poised to benefit from the rapid advance and diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. AI in agriculture could improve crop management and agricultural productivity through plant phenotyping, rapid diagnosis of plant disease, efficient application of agrochemicals and assistance for growers with location-relevant agronomic advice. However, the ramifications of machine learning (ML)
- [Military Artificial Intelligence as Contributor to Global Catastrophic Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/military-artificial-intelligence-contributor-global-catastrophic-risk/) - Abstract Recent years have seen growing attention for the use of AI technologies in warfare, which has been rapidly advancing. This chapter explores in what ways such military AI technologies might contribute to Global Catastrophic Risks (GCR). After reviewing the GCR field’s limited previous engagement with military AI, and giving an overview of recent advances
- [Seven Questions for Existential Risk Studies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/seven-questions-existential-risk-studies/) - Abstract Recent years have seen the emergence of Existential Risk Studies (ERS), a rich field focused on understanding and mitigating a range of Extreme Technological Risks. This interdisciplinary and idiosyncratic field today finds itself at a crossroads: at the same time as many risks are growing increasingly urgent, there is increasing attention and potential to
- [Oases of Cooperation: An Empirical Evaluation of Reinforcement Learning in the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/oases-cooperation-empirical-evaluation-reinforcement-learning-iterated-prisoners-dilemma/) - Abstract In the creation of safe AI systems it is extremely important to ensure cooperative behaviour of these systems, even when there are incentives to act selfishly. In many cases, even when game-theoretic solutions allow for cooperation, actually getting the AI systems to converge on these solutions through training is difficult. In this paper we
- [Safety-driven design of machine learning for sepsis treatment](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/safety-driven-design-machine-learning-sepsis-treatment/) - Abstract Machine learning (ML) has the potential to bring significant clinical benefits. However, there are patient safety challenges in introducing ML in complex healthcare settings and in assuring the technology to the satisfaction of the different regulators. The work presented in this paper tackles the urgent problem of proactively assuring ML in its clinical context
- [How General-Purpose Is a Language Model? Usefulness and Safety with Human Prompters in the Wild](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-general-purpose-language-model-usefulness-and-safety-human-prompters-wild/) - Abstract The new generation of language models is reported to solve some extraordinary tasks the models were never trained for specifically, in few-shot or zero-shot settings. However, these reports usually cherry-pick the tasks, use the best prompts, and unwrap or extract the solutions leniently even if they are followed by nonsensical text. In sum, they
- [Focus of the IPCC Assessment Reports Has Shifted to Lower Temperatures](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/focus-ipcc-assessment-reports-has-shifted-lower-temperatures/) - Abstract We focus on how different global temperature increases represented in IPCC reports have shifted over time. While the first four assessment reports had a roughly equal focus on temperatures above and below 2°C, the more recent fifth and sixth assessment reports have a considerably stronger focus on warming below 2°C. This is concerning as
- [Lessons from COVID-19 for GCR governance: a research agenda](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lessons-covid-19-gcr-governance-research-agenda/) - Abstract The Lessons from Covid-19 Research Agenda offers a structure to study the COVID-19 pandemic and the pandemic response from a Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) perspective. The agenda sets out the aims of our study, which is to investigate the key decisions and actions (or failures to decide or to act) that significantly altered the
- [Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-endgame-exploring-catastrophic-climate-change-scenarios/) - Abstract Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a
- [Potential and limitations of digital twins to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/potential-and-limitations-digital-twins-achieve-sustainable-development-goals/) - Abstract Could computer simulation models drive our ambitions to sustainability in urban and non-urban environments? Digital twins, defined here as real-time, virtual replicas of physical and biological entities, may do just that. However, despite their touted potential, digital twins have not been examined critically in urban sustainability paradigms—not least in the Sustainable Development Goals framework.
- [Systemic Risk and Resilience: The Bronze Age Collapse and Recovery](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/systemic-risk-and-resilience-bronze-age-collapse-and-recovery/) - Luke Kemp and Eric Cline cowrote a book chapter in 'Perspectives on Public Policy in Societal-Environmental Crises', on how systemic risk and resilience unfolded during the Bronze Age Collapse. Abstract In this chapter we apply the concepts of resilience theory and systemic risk to the Bronze Age Collapse. We contend that this was a case
- [Reply to Kelman: The foundations for studying catastrophic climate risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reply-kelman-foundations-studying-catastrophic-climate-risks/) - Luke Kemp and the other coauthors of "Climate Endgame" responded to a letter by Ilan Kelman. Read full paper
- [Reply to Burgess et al: Catastrophic climate risks are neglected, plausible, and safe to study](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reply-burgess-et-al-catastrophic-climate-risks-are-neglected-plausible-and-safe-study/) - Luke Kemp and the other coauthors of "Climate Endgame" responded to a letter by Matthew G. Burgess, Roger Pielke and Justin Ritchie. Read full paper
- [Global sustainability targets: Planetary boundary, global catastrophic risk, and disaster risk reduction considerations](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-sustainability-targets-planetary-boundary-global-catastrophic-risk-and-disaster-risk-reduction-considerations/) - Abstract The effects of the crossing Planetary Boundaries and Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) events on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) efforts, international development targets, and any future international development target iterations are not well understood. However, the crossing of Planetary Boundaries, and GCR events could have significant and adverse effects on the global development gains, capability
- [Reply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reply-ruhl-and-craig-assessing-and-governing-extreme-climate-risks-needs-be-legitimate-and-democratic/) - Luke Kemp and the other coauthors of "Climate Endgame" responded to a letter by J. B. Ruhl and R. K. Craig. Read full response
- [The Potential Role of Iceland in Northern Europe’s Protein Self-Sufficiency: Feasibility Study of Large-Scale Production of Spirulina in a Novel Energy-Food System](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/potential-role-iceland-northern-europes-protein-self-sufficiency-feasibility-study-large-scale-production-spirulina-novel-energy-food-system/) - Abstract Europe is dependent on protein-rich crop imports to meet domestic food demand. This has moved the topic of sustainable protein self-sufficiency up the policy agenda. The current study assesses the feasibility of protein self-sufficiency in Iceland, and its capacity to meet Northern Europe’s demand, based on industrial-scale cultivation of Spirulina in novel production units.
- [Propagating Visions of a Forest Reservoir](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/propagating-visions-forest-reservoir/) - Abstract When examined closely, the backgrounds of some of the most widely cited origin stories for zoonotic disease outbreaks have been found to be irreconcilable with empirical data. Stated simply, these explanatory landscapes do not appear to have existed. Here, I present a detailed case study of one such fictional landscape, that of a monkey-filled
- [Investigating outbreaks of initially unknown aetiology in complex settings: findings and recommendations from 10 case studies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/investigating-outbreaks-initially-unknown-aetiology-complex-settings-findings-and-recommendations-10-case-studies/) - Abstract BackgroundOutbreaks of unknown aetiology in complex settings pose challenges and there is little information about investigation methods. We reviewed investigations into such outbreaks to identify methods favouring or impeding identification of the cause.MethodsWe used two approaches: reviewing scientific literature and soliciting key informants. Case studies were developed through interviews with people involved and triangulated
- [Impact of the Tambora volcanic eruption of 1815 on islands and relevance to future sunlight-blocking catastrophes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/impact-tambora-volcanic-eruption-1815-islands-and-relevance-future-sunlight-blocking-catastrophes/) - Abstract Island nations may have potential long-term survival value for humanity in global catastrophes such as sun-blocking catastrophes from nuclear winter and large magnitude volcanic eruptions. One way to explore this issue further is to understand the impact on islands after the largest historically observed volcanic eruption: that of Mt Tambora in 1815. For each
- ['Collapse' in Dictionary of Ecological Economics](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/collapse-dictionary-ecological-economics/) - Sabin Roman contributed the chpater 'Collapase' to the Dictionary of Ecological Economics edited by Brent M. Haddad and Barry D. Solomon. This comprehensive Dictionary brings together an extensive range of definitive terms in ecological economics. Assembling contributions from distinguished scholars, it provides an intellectual map to this evolving subject ranging from the practical to the philosophical. Find out more
- [Do We Owe the Past a Future? Reply to Finneron-Burns](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/do-we-owe-past-future-reply-finneron-burns/) - Many of our forebears went beyond the call of duty, sacrificing much, to benefit those who would come after them. Elsewhere, we claimed that preventing human extinction renders those past sacrifices more worthwhile. We also developed the Unfinished Business Account, which together with the first claim implies that we wrong past people by squandering their
- [Exploring Futures for the Science of Global Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/exploring-futures-science-global-risk/) - This paper presents a collaborative exercise to explore divergent futures for the field of global risk, and especially the global risk community intersecting with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge. While this community often advocates for the value of futures and foresight to others, we believe this is the first attempt
- [Predicting reliability through structured expert elicitation with the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/predicting-reliability-through-structured-expert-elicitation-replicats-collaborative-assessments-trustworthy-science-process/) - Abstract As replications of individual studies are resource intensive, techniques for predicting the replicability are required. We introduce the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process, a new method for eliciting expert predictions about the replicability of research. This process is a structured expert elicitation approach based on a modified Delphi technique applied to the
- [The Next Generation Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration: History, Philosophy, and Culture](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/next-generation-event-horizon-telescope-collaboration-history-philosophy-and-culture/) - Abstract This white paper outlines the plans of the History Philosophy Culture Working Group of the Next Generation Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration. Read full paper
- [ParEvo: A methodology for the exploration and evaluation of alternative futures](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/parevo-methodology-exploration-and-evaluation-alternative-futures/) - Abstract Evaluators’ main encounter with views of the future is in the form of theories of change, about how a programme will work to achieve a desired end, in a given context. These are typically focussed on specific relatively short-term futures, which are both desired and expected. But even in the short term, reality often
- [Assessing benefits and risks between the space economies and the sustainable development goals](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/assessing-benefits-and-risks-between-space-economies-and-sustainable-development-goals/) - Abstract As humanity’s presence in space continues to advance, it is important to consider the positive and negative effects of space activities on sustainable development. This paper presents the findings from an expert elicitation process to assess the benefits and risks of the Earth-for-space, space-for-Earth, and space-for-space economies for the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals
- [Unprecedented Technological Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/unprecedented-technological-risks/) - Executive Summary The development of nuclear weapons was, at the time, an unprecedented technological risk. The destructive power of the first atomic bomb was one thousand times greater than other weapons; and hydrogen bombs increased that destructive power one thousand-fold again. Importantly, this technological development was extremely rapid. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki came
- [Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/innovation-managing-risk-not-avoiding-it/) - Managing existential risk from emerging technologies Historically, the risks that have arisen from emerging technologies have been small when compared with their benefits. The potential exceptions are unprecedented risks that could threaten large parts of the globe, or even our very survival. Technology has significantly improved lives in the United Kingdom and the rest of
- [A Global Apollo Programme To Combat Climate Change](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-apollo-programme-combat-climate-change/) - The Global Apollo Programme is a call for a major global science and economics research programme to make carbon-free baseload electricity less costly than electricity from coal by the year 2025. It featured in the Leader's Declaration of the 41st G7 summit. It was followed in 2015 by two initiatives from Bill Gates: Mission Innovation
- [“Black Sky” Infrastructure and Societal Resilience Workshop](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/black-sky-infrastructure-and-societal-resilience-workshop/) - Executive summary Problem Statement In the modern world, our lives are empowered, enriched and sustained by unprecedented access to clean water, electricity, food, health care and pharmaceuticals, and a wide range of other vital products and services. In most modern nations, when disasters strike and the interconnected infrastructure networks that supply these goods and services
- [Climate Change and The Common Good](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-change-and-common-good/) - Summary This century is on course to witness unprecedented environmental changes. In particular, the projected climate changes or, more appropriately, climate disruptions, when coupled with ongoing massive species extinctions and the destruction of ecosystems, will doubtless leave their indelible marks on both humanity and nature. As early as 2100, there will be a non negligible
- [Personal Identity and Public Policy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/personal-identity-and-public-policy/) - Workshop Summary Technological change presents certain extreme possibilities for the future of ‘the person’ that are hard to evaluate using standard economic or legal procedures. Firstly, there is the possibility of the total loss of all persons from the world, and hence some portion of space up toand including the entire future history of the
- [Climate Change: A Risk Assessment](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-change-risk-assessment/) - Introduction The Earth’s climate has changed dramatically in the past. It has swung in and out of ice ages, at whose peak great swathes of North America, Europe and northern Asia were covered in sheets of ice three kilometres thick. It has been through periods of extreme heat, where subtropical climates existed in high northern
- [Resetting the frame](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/resetting-frame/) - Executive Summary This report considers a type of situation that the present generation has never experienced directly: one that would cause the death of 10% of humanity, or severe damage on a similar scale. Traditional risk analysis considers the following equation: the total risk equals the magnitude of potential future damage multiplied by the probability
- [Data Analytics for Sustainability and Environmental Risk Workshop Report](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/data-analytics-sustainability-and-environmental-risk-workshop-report/) - Challenge: There exists a significant information gap between the sources of climate data and the kinds of local, actionable knowledge required for mitigation and adaptation policy and planning decisions. The causes of this gap are discontinuous and heterogeneous data sources, a plethora of loosely connected models of varying complexity, and limitations of expertise transfer across
- [Global Catastrophic Risks 2017](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-catastrophic-risks-2017/) - Report summary Global Challenges Annual Report: GCF & thought leaders sharing What you need to know on global catastrophic risks 2017. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation. View report
- [Climate Ethics and Climate Economics: Risk, Uncertainty and Catastrophe Scenarios](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-ethics-and-climate-economics-risk-uncertainty-and-catastrophe-scenarios/) - Workshop summary Economic analyses of the effects of global warming often focus on the scenarios analysts believe are most likely to materialize. However, in recent years, both economists and moral philosophers have paid increasing attention to the possibility that climate change could prove much worse than we expect. However, it is not clear just how
- [Eighth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention: Where Next?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/eighth-review-conference-biological-weapons-convention-where-next/) - CSER – Workshop Report Series There are three versions of this report: [1.a] for audiences familiar with the Biological Weapons Convention; [1.b] with additional background material for those less familiar with the Biological Weapons Convention; and [1.c] a summary version. While there was potential to make progress in several areas, the Eighth Review Conference of
- [Written Evidence to Lords Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/written-evidence-lords-select-committee-artificial-intelligence/) - Dr Simon Beard submitted Written Evidence to the United Kingdom's House of Lords Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence. This response was written with additional input from Dr Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Dr Shahar Avin and Haydn Belfield of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), Martina Kunz at the Centre for the Future of Intelligence
- [Biological Extinction - Proceedings](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biological-extinction-proceedings/) - Proceedings of the Joint PAS/PASS Working Group27 February - 1 March 2017Scripta Varia 134Vatican City, 2017e-pub Proceedings here
- [CSER Policy Brief: Emerging opportunities and risks associated with biological engineering](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-policy-brief-bio-engineering/) - This Policy Brief provides a short, two-page overview of our paper Point of View: A transatlantic perspective on 20 emerging issues in biological engineering. Read Policy Brief
- [Business School Rankings for the 21st Century](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/business-school-rankings-21st-century/) - This paper addresses the question of how business schools, and the courses they offer, are evaluated and ranked. The existing benchmarking systems, many of which are administered by well-respected media institutions, appear to have a strong motivational effect for administrators and prospective students alike1. Many of the rankings criteria currently in use were developed years
- [Policy series Managing global catastrophic risks: Part 1 Understand](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/policy-series-managing-global-catastrophic-risks-part-1-understand/) - This product is the first in a series. Its purpose is to inform policy-makers at a national level how they can better understand global catastrophic risks. Further products will address how governments can effectively mitigate, prepare for, respond to and communicate about these risks. Visit www.GCRpolicy.com for the online version and detailed policy options. The risks
- [Reducing malicious use of synthetic media research: considerations and potential release practices for machine learning](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reducing-malicious-use-synthetic-media-research-considerations-and-potential-release-practices-machine-learning/) - Abstract The aim of this paper is to facilitate nuanced discussion around research norms and practices to mitigate the harmful impacts of advances in machine learning (ML). We focus particularly on the use of ML to create “synthetic media” (e.g. to generate or manipulate audio, video, images, and text), and the question of what publication
- [Policy options to close the production gap](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/policy-close-production-gap/) - Key Messages Countries can begin to close the production gap by aligning their energy and climate plans. Governments have a range of policy options to regulate fossil fuel supply, including limits on new exploration and extraction and removal of subsidies for production. Some countries are already demonstrating leadership: Belize, Costa Rica, Denmark, France, and New
- [A Proposal for International AI Governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/proposal-international-ai-governance/) - Summary International Digital Cooperation must be underpinned by the effective international governance of artificial intelligence (AI). AI systems pose numerous transboundary policy problems in both the short- and the longterm. The international governance of AI should be anchored to a regime under the UN which is inclusive (of multiple stakeholders), anticipatory (of fast-progressing AI technologies
- [Response to the European Commission’s High-Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence's Draft Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/response-european-commissions-high-level-expert-group-artificial-intelligences-draft-ethics-guidelines-trustworthy-ai/) - Summary Several of the methods we explored are already mentioned in the Guidelines, such as codes of conduct, education and societal dialogue. However we also explored some methods that you do not yet mention. Our report made recommendations in four ‘priority research areas’. In this response we split these into ‘technical’ and ‘non-technical’ methods. Learning
- [Should Artificial Intelligence Governance be Centralised? Six Design Lessons from History](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/should-ai-governance-centralised/) - Abstract Can effective international governance for artificial intelligence remain fragmented, or is there a need for a centralised international organisation for AI? We draw on the history of other international regimes to identify advantages and disadvantages in centralising AI governance. Some considerations, such as efficiency and political power, speak in favour of centralisation. Conversely, the
- [The Cartography of Global Catastrophic Governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cartography-global-catastrophic-governance/) - Abstract The international governance of global catastrophic risks (GCRs) is fragmented and insufficient. This report provides an overview of the international governance arrangement for 8 different GCR hazards and two drivers. We find that there are clusters of dedicated regulation and action, including in nuclear warfare, climate change and pandemics, biological and chemical warfare. Despite
- [Conference Report: Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk (CCCR2018)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/conference-report-cccr2018/) - The second of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s international conferences provided a timely opportunity for the Centre, along with the wide communities working on existential and global catastrophic risks and in related fields, to reflect on our work so far and to deepen and broaden our learning from other disciplines. This allowed
- [Defining and Unpacking Transformative AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/defining-unpacking-transformative-ai/) - Abstract Recently the concept of transformative AI (TAI) has begun to receive attention in the AI policy space. TAI is often framed as an alternative formulation to notions of strong AI (e.g. artificial general intelligence or superintelligence) and reflects increasing consensus that advanced AI which does not fit these definitions may nonetheless have extreme and
- [Privacy, autonomy and personalised targeting: rethinking how personal data is used.](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/privacy-autonomy-personalised-targeting/) - Abstract Technological advances are bringing new light to privacy issues and changing the reasons for why privacy is important. These advances have changed not only the kind of personal data that is available to be collected, but also how that personal data can be used by those who have access to it. We are particularly
- [Identifying and Assessing the Drivers of Global Catastrophic Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/identifying-assessing-drivers/) - Abstract This report reviews and appraises the methods and approaches for assessing the drivers of global catastrophic risk. The review contains five sections: A conceptual overview setting out the current understanding of the concept of global catastrophic risks (GCRs), their drivers, and how they can be assessed. A brief historical overview of the field of
- [Informing management of lockdowns and a phased return to normality: a Solution Scan of non-pharmaceutical options to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/informing-management-lockdowns/) - This work is a collaboration between BioRISC (the Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine’s College, Cambridge), Conservation Evidence based in the Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. It was created by documenting our experience of options, consulting guidance, contacting people working in different countries to explore the range of options
- [Toward Trustworthy AI: Mechanisms for Supporting Verifiable Claims](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/toward-trustworthy-ai/) - Abstract The increasingly widespread application of AI research has brought growing awareness of the risks posed by AI systems, and recognition that existing regulations and norms in industry and academia are insufficient to ensure responsible AI development. In order for AI developers to earn trust from users, civil society, governments, and other stakeholders, there is a
- [Written Evidence - Premature Procurement](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/written-evidence-defence-industrial-policy-procurement-and-prosperity/) - We submitted Written Evidence to the UK Parliament Defence Committee's Inquiry on Defence industrial policy: procurement and prosperity. Executive Summary In this response we particularly focus on defence and those in adjacent markets systems that integrate increasingly capable artificial intelligence (AI), especially those based on machine learning (ML). Many systems that the Ministry of Defence (MoD)
- [Response to the European Commission’s consultation on AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/response-european-commissions-consultation-ai/) - Consultation on the White Paper on AI – a European approach Submission by Haydn Belfield, José Hernández-Orallo, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Matthijs M. Maas, Alexa Hagerty, Jess Whittlestone On February 19, 2020, the European Commission published its White Paper on Artificial Intelligence and launched a public consultation. We welcome the European Commission’s effort to create an ecosystem of
- [Written Evidence: UK ARPA – Key Recommendations](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/written-evidence-uk-arpa-key-recommendations/) - We submitted Written Evidence to the UK Parliament Science & Technology Committee's Inquiry on A new UK research funding agency. Written Evidence Submitted by Nick Bostrom, Haydn Belfield and Sam Hilton, University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute and University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (RFA0061) 1. Executive Summary 1.1 We
- [Public Mental Health and COVID-19: a compassion based approach to recovery and resilience](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/public-mental-health-covid/) - This is a policy brief for the Association of Liberal Democrat Engineers and Scientists. The mental health impacts of COVID-19 are expected to be very significant and could be the single greatest health burden caused by this pandemic in the long term. However, at present they are not being assessed at the population level, while not
- [AI and Data Governance issues in responding to COVID-19](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-issues-covid/) - This is a policy brief for the Association of Liberal Democrat Engineers and Scientists. AI and data-driven technologies have the potential to support pandemic prevention and control at many stages, includingimproving response and recovery for COVID-19. As well as having direct benefits, the increased use of AI and data technologies could increase social understanding oftheir benefits
- [Peru remains in lockdown, But promise of vaccine brings hope](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/peru-remains-lockdown-promise-vaccine-brings-hope/) - Abstract It has been six months since Peru was hit with its first case of the COVID-19 virus. By 2 September, 3,156,679 people had been tested, with 639,435 positive results and 28,607 deaths. These appalling numbers have impacted the country at its core and have pushed for new economic and social regulations and a ‘new
- [Divestment: Advantages and Disadvantages for the University of Cambridge](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/divestment-advantages-cambridge/) - Executive Summary The University of Cambridge holds assets of approximately £3.5 billion, the largest university endowment in Europe. Within the University there is broad agreement about the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions. However, whether full divestment of University funds from fossil fuel assets is the best way to make that happen has been the
- [It Takes a Village: The Shared Responsibility of 'Raising' an Autonomous Weapon](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/it-takes-village/) - Abstract Expectations around future capabilities of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) have raised concerns for military risks, ethics, and accountability. The U.K.’s position, as presented among various international voices at the UN’s Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) meetings, has attempted to address these concerns through a focused look at the weapons review process, human-machine
- [Risk management in the UK: What can we learn from COVID-19 and are we prepared for the next disaster?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/risk-management-uk/) - Summary It is important that governments use COVID-19 as an opportunity to learn in order to be able to protect citizens from future pandemics or other disasters. This paper assesses how prepared the UK was for a pandemic and suggests ways to ensure it is prepared for future disasters. The shortcomings identified should be seen
- [Submission of Evidence to The House of Lords Select Committee on Risk Assessment and Risk Planning](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/submission-evidence-house-lords-select-committee-risk-assessment-and-risk-planning/) - CSER researchers, led by Shahar Avin, produced a unified written evidence submission that summarized our approach to defining and classifying extreme risks; the systemic nature of extreme risks; the relationship between extreme risk and global justice; and key research findings on tools for appropriately responding to extreme risks. Abstract In this submission we: (1) introduce
- [Pathways to Linking  Science and Policy in the  Field of Global Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/pathways-linking-science-and-policy-field-global-risk/) - Summary One of our current aims at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) is to understand the norms, values and approaches that bridge global risk with policy engagement. More specifically, to strengthen our capabilities in translation and application of our research into practical policy recommendations and proposals. Therefore, we have developed this
- [Future Proof: the opportunity to transform the UK's resilience to extreme risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/future-proof/) - A new report from CSER Research Affiliates at the Centre for Long-Term Resilience, CSER staff and colleagues at Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute. Executive Summary Out of the wreckage of the Second World War, the UK transformed itself. It rebuilt its shattered economy. It founded the NHS. It created national insurance. And it helped establish
- [Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/tapping-potential-ndcs-and-lt-leds-address-fossil-fuel-production/) - Tapping the potential of NDCs and LT-LEDS to address fossil fuel production Abstract: The need for a managed transition away from fossil fuel production raises the question of whether and how countries are addressing this need in their national communications to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A previous 2019 analysis of the
- [Why are food shortages not listed as a risk in the National Risk Register?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/food-shortages-nrr/) - Sam Hilton, Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge Sahil Shah, specialist researcher on food security, ALLFED and Jahn Research Summary The UK government is reviewing how the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) works in order to learn the lessons from COVID-19. There are serious risks that could
- [Submission of Feedback to the European Commission’s Proposal for a Regulation laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/feedback-european-regulation/) - Submission of Feedback to the European Commission’s Proposal for a Regulation laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence Submission by Sam Clarke, Jess Whittlestone, Matthijs M. Maas, Haydn Belfield, José Hernández-Orallo, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh On April 21, 2021, the European Commission published the EU AI Act and launched a public consultation. We welcome the European Commission’s proposed regulation to ensure
- [Reconfiguring Resilience for Existential Risk: Submission of Evidence to the Cabinet Office on the new UK National Resilience Strategy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reconfiguring-resilience-existential-risk-submission-evidence-cabinet-office-new-uk-national-resilience-strategy/) - This document presents CSER experts’ collected responses to the UK Cabinet Office’s Call for Evidence on the National Resilience Strategy, as submitted on September 27th, 2021 (response ID: ANON-7FMB-F6JK-W). Abstract: This submission provides input on the UK Government's National Resilience Strategy Call for Evidence, which sought “public engagement to inform the development of a new
- [WHO: Emerging Technologies and Dual-Use Concerns](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/who-emerging-technologies-and-dual-use-concerns/) - Summary Advances in the life sciences and technology are making vital contributions toimproving global health. New scientific insights that are subsequently translated into technology and refined, adapted and assimilated by innovative processes play a crucial role in advancing knowledge and addressing critical societal challenges. Yet, transformative developments in a wide range of fields can also
- [Government Support and Policies For Fossil Fuel Production](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/government-support-and-policies-fossil-fuel-production/) - Summary Governments have injected trillions of US dollars into the economy to respond to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many governments have committed to using some of these funds to “build back better,” including through public investment in low-carbon development, high-quality clean energy jobs, and a just transition for all. However, the policies, investments,
- [The Critical Role of Transparency in Addressing the Production Gap](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/critical-role-transparency-addressing-production-gap/) - Summary The public disclosure of verifiable and comparable information by governments and corporations is key to addressing the fossil fuel production gap. Such information can reveal the extent to which governments are supporting fossil fuel production, and provide insights into how countries can wind down production in light of the Paris Agreement’s goals. Key messages:
- [The Cambridge Principles: System Stewardship for Universal Owners](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cambridge-principles-system-stewardship-universal-owners/) - Universal owners – including pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, and other long-term institutional investors – exist to serve their beneficiaries. Because these funds are widely diversified and their returns depend primarily upon the performance of the financial market as a whole (beta), they can best serve beneficiaries and satisfy their legal duties by preserving
- [Response to NIST AI Risk Management Framework Concept Paper](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/response-nist/) - Some researchers responded to NIST's request for comments on its Concept Paper for AI Risk Management Framework. The response is available as a PDF here. Introduction We write to submit comments on the Concept Paper on the NIST AI Risk Management Framework (AI RMF or Framework). We are a group of researchers at the University
- [Emerging trends and technologies: a horizon scan for global public health](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/emerging-trends-and-technologies-horizon-scan-global-public-health/) - This publication presents the findings of a global horizon scan on emerging technologies and trends relevant to global public health conducted in 2020 and 2021. We identified 15 new and emerging technologies and scientific advances that may have a significant impact on global health over the next two decades. WHO strives to remain “ahead of
- [Submission of Evidence to the UK Biosecurity Strategy Call for Evidence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/submission-evidence-uk-biosecurity-strategy-call-evidence/) - Researchers from CSER and BioRISC, led by Tom Hobson, produced an evidence submission proposing a central organising body for the development and implantation of biosecurity in the UK. In it, they argued for the importance of fostering strong academic and civil society capabilities in this area, and developing policy and practice in collaboration with relevant
- [Submission of evidence to the Foreign Affairs Committee Inquiry on Tech and the future of UK Foreign Policy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/submission-evidence-foreign-affairs-committee-inquiry-tech-and-future-uk-foreign-policy/) - CSER Researcher Tom Hobson worked in Collaboration with Brett Edwards from the University of Bath to produce an evidence submission covering the possibilities for holistic and robust technology assessment as a core component of the UK’s long term-foreign policy. Abstract In this submission we: Introduce the contested concept of global technology assessment, as an increasingly
- [Submission of Evidence  for the UK’s Biological Security Strategy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/submission-evidence-uks-biological-security-strategy/) - Khalisah L. Zulkefli, Tan Jaymi, Sandra López-Vergès, John H. Malone, Alexander Kagansky, Abhi Veerakumarasivam1, Bartlomiej Kolodziejczyk and Clarissa Rios Rojas submitted evidence for the Biological Security Strategy call for evidence from the Department of Health and Social Care, and Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs. Abstract Rapid technological advances in genome editing and synthetic biology have created
- [Global catastrophic risk and planetary boundaries: The relationship to global targets and disaster risk reduction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/gcr-planetary-boundaries/) - Abstract This contributing paper presents a literature review on the Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework, global catastrophic risk, and planetary boundaries before undertaking a scenario analysis. The scenario analysis considers worlds where global catastrophic risk is high and low, and planetary boundaries have not been crossed and have been crossed respectively. This gives
- [Submission of Evidence for the Biological Security Strategy Call for Evidence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/submission-evidence-biological-security-strategy-call-evidence/) - Clarissa Rios Rojas, Silviu Petrovan and William Sutherland submitted evidence for the Biological Security Strategy call for evidence. The submission aimed to address some aspects of the following questions: What are the key biological security opportunities, challenges, threats and vulnerabilities facing the UK (now and in 5 years)? How should the government prioritise its efforts to
- [Effective Enforceability of EU Competition Law Under Different AI Development Scenarios](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/effective-enforceability-eu-competition-law-under-different-ai-development-scenarios/) - This post examines whether competition law can remain effective in prospective AI development scenarios by looking at six variables for AI development: capability of AI systems, speed of development, key inputs, technical architectures, number of actors, and the nature and relationship of these actors. For each of these, we analyse how different scenarios could impact
- [Compute and Antitrust: Regulatory implications of the AI hardware supply chain, from chip design to cloud APIs](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/compute-and-antitrust/) - Abstract Compute or computing power refers to a software and hardware stack, such as in a data centre or computer, engineered for AI-specific applications. We argue that the antitrust and regulatory literature to date has failed to pay sufficient attention to compute, despite compute being a key input to AI progress and services, the potentially
- [Book review: Moralizing Hope by Daniel Moellendorf](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/book-review-moralizing-hope-daniel-moellendorf/) - Alex McLaughlin reviewed Moralizing Hope by Daniel Moellendorf. If we are to have a chance of limiting climate change to 1.5C, the production of energy through fossil fuels must be rapidly reduced and then ceased altogether. The problem is that urgent poverty alleviation requires that many are able to increase their energy use, since ‘[s]ignificant human development gains
- [Submission of Evidence to the White House Office of Science and Technology’s Request for Input to a Five-Year Plan for Research on Climate Intervention](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/submission-evidence-white-house-office-science-and-technologys-request-input-five-year-plan-research-climate-intervention/) - This research programme into climate intervention must include considerations of low probability / high impact scenarios as well as the most probable. Whilst easily overlooked, they are essential for a more complete risk response. There are complex interactions, both positive and negative, between solar climate intervention (SCI) and the potentially small but nonetheless significant risk
- [New Narratives in Global Catastrophic Risk - Part 1](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-narratives-global-catastrophic-risk-part-1/) - As part of the University of Cambridge’s Borysiewicz Interdisciplinary Fellowships programme CSER researchers SJ Beard and Clarissa Rios Rojas have been working with Lorena Escuadero (a Turing Fellow and Senior Research Associate at the Department for Radiology) and Xiaolei Zhang (a researcher at the European Bioinformatics Institute) to develop new narratives around global catastrophic risk. They
- [Public awareness of nuclear winter and implications for escalation control](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/public-awareness-nuclear-winter-and-implications-escalation-control/) - An opinion poll on nuclear winter awareness released by Pual Ingram on 14 February suggests a low public awareness of likely global ‘nuclear winter’ climate effects from mass nuclear detonations, yet a strong reluctance to support nuclear retaliation in response to a fictional Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine. Support for nuclear retaliation amongst voters for the
- [Report: Building a Science-Policy Interface for tackling the Global Governance of Catastrophic and Existential Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/report-building-science-policy-interface-tackling-global-governance-catastrophic-and-existential-risks/) - Agenda The development of this report was led by the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge as part of a global, multi-organisation work programme to provide thinking on science and policy issues. Specifically, we have focused on the complex challenge of the multi-region and trans-cultural governance of Global
- [Infographic: Trends & Governance in Bio Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/infographic-trends-governance-bio-risk/)
- [Infographic: Climate Change](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/infographic-climate-change/) - This infographic summarizes some of CSER’s research and advocacy work around the existential and globally catastrophic potential of climate change, as a risk driver, risk multiplier, and risk mitigation opportunity. The first section, Are We Betting on the Best Case? Largely draws on Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research a study
- [Infographic: AI:FAR](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/infographic-aifar/) - This infographic summarizes some of CSER’s research stemming from the AI:FAR Project. Some of the visuals have been adapted from previous papers including 'The transformative potential of artificial intelligence' paper by Ross Gruetzemacher and Jess Whittlestone and 'Filling gaps in trustworthy development of AI' by Shahar Avin et al. Below are some more noteworthy papers and projects from the
- [Infographic: Nuclear Weapons](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/infographic-nuclear-weapons/) - We are approaching our ninth decade under the shadow of nuclear war. There remains much to be understood about our management of the risks and the consequences should we fail. The war in Ukraine has led to a spike in nuclear risk and growing concerns about nuclear deterrence, even as public support in Europe has
- [Infographic: Natural Biorisk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/infographic-natural-biorisk/) - This infographic summarizes some of CSER’s research work around Natural bio risks from infectious diseases and lists 3 key pandemic risk areas. Zoonotic Spillover Anti-Microbial Resistence (Super bugs) Diseases of Poverty Find out more about CSER's Natural bio risks work below: Carlson, CJ, Farrell, MJ, Grange, Z, Han BA, Mollentze, N, Phelan, AL, Rasmussen, AL,
- [Our Final Century](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/our-final-century/) - Summary Will Civilisation Survive the Twenty-first Century?: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century? World authority on astrophysics, Sir Martin Rees, takes us on a journey through all the things which could wipe out mankind in the near future. From asteroids to disease to scientific discoveries gone wrong (from nanobots to the large Hadron
- [From Here to Infinity: A Vision for the Future of Science](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/here-infinity-scientific-horizons/) - Summary In this book the Astronomer Royal, Professor Martin Rees, shows how important science will be to the global economies of the 21st century, to solving some of our apparently intractable problems and to understanding the risks that the world faces. Science is often seen as difficult or obscure, but we can all understand it and
- [Rock, Bone, and Ruin: An Optimist's Guide to the Historical Sciences](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/rock-bone-and-ruin/) - Overview The “historical sciences”—geology, paleontology, and archaeology—have made extraordinary progress in advancing our understanding of the deep past. How has this been possible, given that the evidence they have to work with offers mere traces of the past? In Rock, Bone, and Ruin, Adrian Currie explains that these scientists are “methodological omnivores,” with a variety of
- [On the Future: Prospects for Humanity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/future-prospects-humanity/) - Humanity has reached a critical moment. Our world is unsettled and rapidly changing, and we face existential risks over the next century. Various outcomes—good and bad—are possible. Yet our approach to the future is characterized by short-term thinking, polarizing debates, alarmist rhetoric, and pessimism. In this book, CSER co-founder Martin Rees argues that humanity’s prospects
- [Extremes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extremes/) - Humanity is confronted by and attracted to extremes. Extreme events shape our thinking, feeling, and actions; they echo in our politics, media, literature, and science. We often associate extremes with crises, disasters, and risks to be averted, yet extremes also have the potential to lead us towards new horizons. Featuring essays by leading intellectuals and
- [Double Debt Disaster: Law, Policy, and Social Justice in the wake of Japan’s 2011 Tsunami](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/double-debt-disaster-law-policy-and-social-justice-wake-japans-2011-tsunami/) - Double Debt Disaster offers a detailed examination of an increasingly serious and widespread, yet underexamined, phenomenon: obstacles to recovery from catastrophes caused by the concurrence of pre-disaster obligations with post-disaster capital needs and the destruction of collateral assets. The convergence of growing risk from natural hazards, from projected sea-level rise, storm surges, floods, and other extreme
- [Questioning the Politics of Human Enhancement Technologies in Bioethics and the Posthumanities](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/questioning-politics-human-enhancement-technologies-bioethics-and-posthumanities/) - Tom Hobson and Anna Roessing (University of Bath) provide a critical exploration of the politics of human enhancement technologies as part of the recently published Routledge volume “Bioethics and the Posthumanities” edited by Danielle Sands. Abstract Research in the biological sciences has revolutionised our understandings of life, biological entities, and boundaries of the organic and
- [Denial of Catastrophic Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/denial-catastrophic-risks/) - Summary In a media landscape saturated with sensational science stories and "end of the world" Hollywood productions, it may be hard to persuade the wide public that real catastrophes could arise as unexpectedly as the 2008 financial crisis, and have a far greater impact. Society could be dealt shattering blows by the misapplication of technologies
- [Pursuit of the common good](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/pursuit-common-good/) - Religious institutions may mobilize public opinion and action Humanity is at a crossroads. Do we continue trends of preceding decades that lift people out of poverty and extend life spans, but in the process run down the planet’s natural capital? Solutions to this profound problem will require greater cooperation among people. The rise of market
- [Funding Science by Lottery](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/funding-science-lottery/) - Abstract Motivated by recent criticisms of the low reliability and high costs of science funding allocation by grant peer review, the paper investigates the alternative of funding science by lottery, and more generally the possible introduction of a formal random element in the funding process. At first it may seem that randomness will lower expected
- [Context-Dependent Utilities](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/context-dependent-utilities/) - Abstract Savage’s framework of subjective preference among acts provides a paradigmatic derivation of rational subjective probabilities within a more general theory of rational decisions. The system is based on a set of possible states of the world, and on acts, which are functions that assign to each state a consequence. The representation theorem states that
- [Investigate Discuss Estimate Aggregate  for structured expert judgement](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/investigate-discuss-estimate-aggregate-structured-expert-judgement/) - Abstract This study presents the results of an approach to the prediction of the outcomes of geopolitical events, which we term the IDEA protocol. The participants investigate the background and causal factors behind a question, predict the outcome, and discuss their thinking with others. They then make a second, private and anonymous judgement of the
- [Metaresearch for Evaluating Reproducibility in Ecology and Evolution](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/metaresearch-evaluating-reproducibility-ecology-and-evolution/) - Abstract Recent replication projects in other disciplines have uncovered disturbingly low levels of reproducibility, suggesting that those research literatures may contain unverifiable claims. The conditions contributing to irreproducibility in other disciplines are also present in ecology. These include a large discrepancy between the proportion of “positive” or “significant” results and the average statistical power of
- [A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/horizon-scan-of-global-conservation-issues-for-2016/) - Summary This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners,
- [News from the Front Lines of Nuclear Law](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/news-front-lines-nuclear-law/) - Summary This volume contains the proceedings of the 14th Regional Conference of the German Branch of the International Nuclear Law Association (INLA) held in Nuremberg in September 2015. In five chapters, German and international experts, with contributions partly in German but predominantly in English, explain the most recent developments in nuclear law in Germany, in
- [Philosophers Take On the World: Would you hand over a decision to a machine?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/philosophers-take-world-would-you-hand-over-a-decision-to-a-machine/) - Overview Philosophers get to grips with what's going on in the world. Every day the news shows us provoking stories about what's going on in the world, about events which raise moral questions and problems. In Philosophers Take On the World a team of philosophers get to grips with a variety of these controversial issues,
- [A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/2017-horizon-scan-emerging-issues-global-conservation-and-biological-diversity/) - Summary We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as
- [Languages Are Still a Major Barrier to Global Science](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/languages-major-barrier-global-science/) - Abstract While it is recognized that language can pose a barrier to the transfer of scientific knowledge, the convergence on English as the global language of science may suggest that this problem has been resolved. However, our survey searching Google Scholar in 16 languages revealed that 35.6% of 75,513 scientific documents on biodiversity conservation published
- [Key impacts of climate engineering on biodiversity and ecosystems, with priorities for future research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/impacts-climate-engineering-biodiversity-ecosystems/) - Abstract Climate change has significant implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. With slow progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, climate engineering (or ‘geoengineering’) is receiving increasing attention for its potential to limit anthropogenic climate change and its damaging effects. Proposed techniques, such as ocean fertilization for carbon dioxide removal or stratospheric sulfate injections to reduce incoming
- [The Future Governance of Biotechnology](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/future-governance-biotechnology/) - Abstract This chapter gives an overview of the development and evolution of international governance as it relates to biosecurity. It also describes the relationship between, as well as the impact upon, individual scientists of a broad range of international biosecurity regulations, and the ways in which governance can influence science and science practice. The chapter
- [A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/practical-guide-structured-expert-elicitation-using-idea-protocol/) - Abstract Expert judgement informs a variety of important applications in conservation and natural resource management, including threatened species management, environmental impact assessment and structured decision-making. However, expert judgements can be prone to contextual biases. Structured elicitation protocols mitigate these biases, and improve the accuracy and transparency of the resulting judgements. Despite this, the elicitation of
- [Accelerating the carbon cycle: the ethics of enhanced weathering](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/accelerating-carbon-cycle-ethics-enhanced-weathering/) - Abstract Enhanced weathering, in comparison to other geoengineering measures, creates the possibility of a reduced cost, reduced impact way of decreasing atmospheric carbon, with positive knock-on effects such as decreased oceanic acidity. We argue that ethical concerns have a place alongside empirical, political and social factors as we consider how to best respond to the
- [In defence of story-telling](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/defence-story-telling/) - Abstract We argue that narratives are central to the success of historical reconstruction. Narrative explanation involves tracing causal trajectories across time. The construction of narrative, then, often involves postulating relatively speculative causal connections between comparatively well-established events. But speculation is not always idle or harmful: it also aids in overcoming local underdetermination by forming scaffolds
- [Technological Wild Cards: Existential Risk and a Changing Humanity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/technological-wild-cards-existential-risk-and-changing-humanity/) - Abstract Humanity has always faced threats to its global survival, such as asteroid impacts and supervolcanoes. Yet now the greatest risks we face may be a result of our own scientific and civilizational progress. We are developing technologies of unprecedented power, such as nuclear weapons and engineered organisms. We are also wiping out species, changing
- [The sure-thing principle and P2](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sure-thing-principle-and-p2/) - Highlights• A comparison between different formulations of the “Sure-thing principle” in Bayesian decision theory.• An analysis of the notion of conditional preferences in Savage-style system.• A demonstration that Savage’s “sure-thing principal” (STP) is structurally different from his second postulate (P2). AbstractThis paper offers a fine analysis of different versions of the well known sure-thing principle.
- [Point of View: A transatlantic perspective on 20 emerging issues in biological engineering](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/point-view-transatlantic-perspective-20-emerging-issues-biological-engineering/) - Abstract Advances in biological engineering are likely to have substantial impacts on global society. To explore these potential impacts we ran a horizon scanning exercise to capture a range of perspectives on the opportunities and risks presented by biological engineering. We first identified 70 potential issues, and then used an iterative process to prioritise 20
- [Hot-Blooded Gluttons: Dependency, Coherence, and Method in the Historical Sciences](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/hot-blooded-gluttons-dependency-coherence-and-method-historical-sciences/) - This paper in the British Journal for the Philosophy of Science recieved the issue’s Editor’s Choice award, and so is open access. Abstract Our epistemic access to the past is infamously patchy: historical information degrades and disappears and bygone eras are often beyond the reach of repeatable experiments. However, historical scientists have been remarkably successful at
- [A simpler and more realistic subjective decision theory](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/simpler-and-more-realistic-subjective-decision-theory/) - Abstract In his classic book “the Foundations of Statistics” Savage develops a formal system of rational decision making. It is based on (i) a set of possible states of the world, (ii) a set of consequences, (iii) a set of acts, which are functions from states to consequences, and (iv) a preference relation over the
- [Successful conservation of global waterbird populations depends on effective governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/successful-conservation-global-waterbird-populations-depends-effective-governance/) - Abstract Understanding global patterns of biodiversity change is crucial for conservation research, policies and practices. However, for most ecosystems, the lack of systematically collected data at a global level limits our understanding of biodiversity changes and their local-scale drivers. Here we address this challenge by focusing on wetlands, which are among the most biodiverse and
- [Proceedings from Garrick Colloquium on Catastrophic and Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/proceedings-garrick-colloquium/) - Featuring papers from: Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh (The opening keynote, on The State of Research in Existential Risk) Catherine Rhodes (Risks and Risk Management in Systems of International Governance) CSER affiliate Seth Baum (Towards an Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk) CSER adviser Prof Jonathan Wiener (The Tragedy of Uncommons: Psychology, Politics and Policy). READ PAPERS
- [Does governance play a role in the distribution of invasive alien species?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/does-governance-play-role-distribution-invasive-alien-species/) - Abstract Invasive alien species (IAS) constitute a major threat to global biological diversity. In order to control their spread, a detailed understanding of the factors influencing their distribution is essential. Although international trade is regarded as a major force structuring spatial patterns of IAS, the role of other social factors remains unclear. Despite studies highlighting
- [An AI Race for Strategic Advantage: Rhetoric and Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-race-strategic-advantage-rhetoric-and-risks/) - This paper jointly won Best Paper Award (sponsored by the Partnership on AI) at the 2018 AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society. Abstract The rhetoric of the race for strategic advantage is increasingly being used with regard to the development of artificial intelligence (AI), sometimes in a military context, but also more broadly. This
- [Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/classifying-global-catastrophic-risks/) - Highlights Classifying global catastrophic risks according to critical system affected, global spread mechanism, and prevention and mitigation failure, provides a novel means of framing risks. By concentrating on component factors that contribute to catastrophic risks, the classification system highlights convergent risk factors that merit prioritisation and also uncovers potential knowledge gaps. The classification system can
- [Geoengineering Tensions](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/geoengineering-tensions/) - Highlights Geoengineering research is a challenging scientific and engineering prospect, which clashes with features of scientific practice which make it conservative. Arguments pertaining to moral hazard and the international cooperation required for geoengineering governance are important (but defeasible). Attempts to rebrand geoengineering, or to decouple geoengineering research from the deployment of technologies, either turn on
- [Representation of future generations in United Kingdom policy-making](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/representation-future-generations/) - Highlights An All-party Parliamentary Group on Future Generations should be formed. Legislation should be passed containing an obligation to include the long-term risks of any Government Bill in its Explanatory Note. The various futures research institutions and think tanks should cooperate to form an expert advisory panel with a mandate to influence policy. If and
- [Global catastrophic and existential risks communication scale](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/risks-communication-scale/) - Highlights We suggest a color coded scale to communicate the magnitude of global catastrophic and existential risk. The scale consists of 6 color codes from white to purple. Color estimations are primarily based on probability intervals for human extinction risks in the next 100 years. Each risk’s estimation could be adjusted to communicate other aspects
- [Existential risk due to ecosystem collapse: Nature strikes back](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/existential-risk-due-ecosystem-collapse/) - Highlights Climate change, the altered hydrological cycle, and ocean acidification are threats to civilization. Positive feedback loops in the climate system are especially worrisome. Unexpected interactions among distinct environmental stressors are challenging to address with either policies or technologies. It is our scientific ignorance that is the greatest source of our existential risk. Resilience theory
- [Interventions that may prevent or mollify supervolcanic eruptions](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/interventions-may-prevent-or-mollify-supervolcanic-eruptions/) - Highlights Supervolcanic eruptions could destroy civilization or worse. Little work has been done on preventing super volcanic eruptions. We propose 49 new interventions to prevent or mollify supervolcanic eruptions. Adding dams or soil could delay eruption 100 years with 1 to 15 years of effort. Cost-effectiveness and reducing scientific uncertainty are important future work. Abstract
- [The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/malicious-use-artificial-intelligence/) - Abstract This report surveys the landscape of potential security threats from malicious uses of AI, and proposes ways to better forecast, prevent, and mitigate these threats. After analyzing the ways in which AI may influence the threat landscape in the digital, physical, and political domains, we make four high-level recommendations for AI researchers and other
- [Heart of DARCness](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/heart-darcness/) - Abstract We propose a valid core for the much-disputed thesis that Deliberation Crowds Out Prediction, and identify terminological causes for some of the apparent disputes. Read full paper
- [Governance explains variation in national responses to the biodiversity crisis](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/governance-explains-variation-national-responses-biodiversity-crisis/) - Abstract Growing concern about the biodiversity crisis has led to a proliferation of conservation responses, but with wide variation between countries in the levels of engagement and investment. Much of this variation is inevitably attributed to differences between nations in wealth. However, the relationship between environmentalism and wealth is complex and it is increasingly apparent
- [Beyond Brain Size: Uncovering the Neural Correlates of Behavioral and Cognitive Specialization](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/beyond-brain-size/) - Abstract Despite prolonged interest in comparing brain size and behavioral proxies of “intelligence” across taxa, the adaptive and cognitive significance of brain size variation remains elusive. Central to this problem is the continued focus on hominid cognition as a benchmark and the assumption that behavioral complexity has a simple relationship with brain size. Although comparative
- [Ingredients for Understanding Brain and Behavioral Evolution: Ecology, Phylogeny, and Mechanism](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ingredients-understanding-brain-and-behavioral-evolution/) - This paper is a response to Embodied (Embrained?) Cognitive Evolution, at Last! and Where the Standard Approach in Comparative Neuroscience Fails and Where It Works: General Intelligence and Brain Asymmetries, themselves responses to Beyond Brain Size: Uncovering the Neural Correlates of Behavioral and Cognitive Specialization. Abstract Uncovering the neural correlates and evolutionary drivers of behavioral
- [The challenge of framing for efforts to mitigate the risks of “dual use” research in the life sciences](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/challenge-framing-dual-use-life-sciences/) - Abstract Drawing upon insights from research in the social sciences about the role of “issue framing” in policy debates, the paper presents an argument for employing “Responsible Science” as the fundamental frame for strategies to engage scientists and scientific organizations in issues related to the potential risks posed by “dual use” research in the life
- [Stratospheric aerosol injection research and existential risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-existential-risk/) - Highlights It is uncertain whether Stratospheric Aerosol Injection(SAI) research is justifiable, but a tentative case be made for security-focused research. SAI would eliminate the arguable environmental existential risks of climate change (
- [The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/performance-weights-discussion-aggregated-expert-judgments/) - Abstract In risky situations characterized by imminent decisions, scarce resources, and insufficient data, policymakers rely on experts to estimate model parameters and their associated uncertainties. Different elicitation and aggregation methods can vary substantially in their efficacy and robustness. While it is generally agreed that biases in expert judgments can be mitigated using structured elicitations involving
- [From Natural Hazard to Man-Made Disaster: The Protection of Disaster Victims in China and Japan](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/natural-hazard-man-made-disaster/) - Abstract In East Asia, disasters have been regarded as events which uncover the mistakes of the past as much as they provide opportunities for building a more just society. In Japan, this phenomenon was captured through the concept of “world rectification” (yonaoshi) in the past and continues to lead to the improvement of disaster preparedness
- [The Facets of Artificial Intelligence: A Framework to Track the Evolution of AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/facets-ai/) - Abstract We present nine facets for the analysis of the past and future evolution of AI. Each facet has also a set of edges that can summarise different trends and contours in AI. With them, we first conduct a quantitative analysis using the information from two decades of AAAI/IJCAI conferences and around 50 years of
- [Risk management in a policy environment: The particular challenges associated with extreme risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/risk-management-policy-environment/) - Highlights Approaches to general risk management in policy provide a useful starting point for consideration of extreme risks. Experience of civil emergencies shows the importance of avoiding groupthink and narrow disciplinary discussions. Visualisation and narrative, including futures work, can be used to shape and bound risks and to engage audiences. Risk considered in innovation policy
- [Governing Boring Apocalypses: A new typology of existential vulnerabilities and exposures for existential risk research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/governing-boring-apocalypses/) - Abstract In recent years, the study of existential risks has explored a range of natural and man-made catastrophes, from supervolcano eruption to nuclear war, and from global pandemics to potential risks from misaligned AI. These risks share the prospect of causing outright human extinction were they to occur. In this approach, such identified existential risks
- [Measuring changes in urban functional capacity for climate resilience: Perspectives from Korea](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/measuring-climate-resilience/) - Highlights Operationalized concepts of four functions for urban resilience are proposed. Indicators of urban function for measuring resilience related to climate change are suggested. These indicators are applied to 232 cities in Korea and clustered according to climate variability. Abstract The purpose of this study is to measure urban resilience through indicators related to urban
- [Accompanying technology development in the Human Brain Project: From foresight to ethics management](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/accompanying-technology-hbp/) - Highlights The paper addresses the management of catastrophic and existential risks potential of general and specialized AI. It does so through the perspective of an EC Future and Emerging Technology Flagship, the Human Brain Project (HBP). It builds on Foresight, Researcher Awareness and Ethics Management work in the HBP Ethics and Society subproject. It illustrates
- [Preserving the norm against chemical weapons: A civil society initiative for the 2018 4th review conference of the chemical weapons convention](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/preserving-norm-chemical-weapons/) - Highlights The norm of non-use of chemical weapons is embodied in the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). The norm is threatened by the use of chemical weapons and by advances in science that could be used to develop new weapons. A non-government initiative aimed at helping to strengthen the CWC at the 2018 Review Conference is
- [The findings of an empirical study of the application of criminal law in non-terrorist disasters and tragedies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/empirical-study-criminal-law/) - Highlights 48 Criminal prosecutions were brought in non-terrorist disasters and tragedies prior to 2000. 152 have occurred as of September 2016 in the New Millennium. Over 60% of the New Millennium cases are in Asia and the Pacific Islands, with India and China in the vanguard. The cases arise in both civil law and common
- [Ramsey and Joyce on deliberation and prediction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ramsey-joyce-deliberation-prediction/) - Abstract Can an agent deliberating about an action A hold a meaningful credence that she will do A? ‘No’, say some authors, for ‘deliberation crowds out prediction’ (DCOP). Others disagree, but we argue here that such disagreements are often terminological. We explain why DCOP holds in a Ramseyian operationalist model of credence, but show that it is trivial
- [The environmental costs and benefits of high-yield farming](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/environmental-cb-high-yield-farming/) - Abstract How we manage farming and food systems to meet rising demand is pivotal to the future of biodiversity. Extensive field data suggest that impacts on wild populations would be greatly reduced through boosting yields on existing farmland so as to spare remaining natural habitats. High-yield farming raises other concerns because expressed per unit area
- [Existential Risk, Creativity & Well-Adapted Science](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/xrisk-creativity/) - Abstract Existential risks, particularly those arising from emerging technologies, are a complex, obstinate challenge for scientific study. This should motivate studying how the relevant scientific communities might be made more amenable to studying such risks. I offer an account of scientific creativity suitable for thinking about scientific communities, and provide reasons for thinking contemporary science
- [Mapping Intelligence: Requirements and Possibilities](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/mapping-intelligence/) - Abstract New types of artificial intelligence (AI), from cognitive assistants to social robots, are challenging meaningful comparison with other kinds of intelligence. How can such intelligent systems be catalogued, evaluated, and contrasted, with representations and projections that offer meaningful insights? To catalyse the research in AI and the future of cognition, we present the motivation,
- [Centralized funding and epistemic exploration](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/centralized-funding-epistemic-exploration/) - Abstract Computer simulation of an epistemic landscape model, modified to include explicit representation of a centralized funding body, show the method of funding allocation has significant effects on communal trade-off between exploration and exploitation, with consequences for the community’s ability to generate significant truths. The results show this effect is contextual, and depends on the
- [Policy Considerations for Random Allocation of Research Funds](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/policy-considerations-random-allocation-research-funds/) - Abstract There are now several proposals for introducing random elements into the process of funding allocation for research, and some initial implementation of this policy by funding bodies. The proposals have been supported on efficiency grounds, with models, including social epistemology models, showing random allocation could increase the generation of significant truths in a community
- [Scientific freedom and responsibility in a biosecurity context](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/scientific-freedom-and-responsibility-biosecurity-context/) - Abstract Scientific freedoms are exercised within the context of certain responsibilities, which in some cases justify constraints on those freedoms. (Constraints that may be internally established within scientific communities and/or externally enacted.) Biosecurity dimensions of work involving pathogens are one such case and raise complex challenges for science and policy. The central issues and debates
- [Ten‐year assessment of the 100 priority questions for global biodiversity conservation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/tenyear-assessment-questions-conservation/) - Abstract In 2008, a group of conservation scientists compiled a list of 100 priority questions for the conservation of the world's biodiversity. However, now almost a decade later, no one has yet published a study gauging how much progress has been made in addressing these 100 highâ€priority questions in the peerâ€reviewed literature. We took a
- [Mavericks and Lotteries](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/mavericks-and-lotteries/) - Highlights A novel analytic synthesis of arguments that support random allocation as an alternative to grant peer review Review of policy implementations of science funding that formally include a random selection element. A novel comparison of these policies with each other and with the policy-relevant characteristics of the arguments in the literature. Abstract In 2013
- [What Is Unfair about Unequal Brute Luck? An Intergenerational Puzzle](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/brute-luck-intergenerational-puzzle/) - Abstract According to Luck egalitarians, fairness requires us to bring it about that nobody is worse off than others where this results from brute bad luck, but not where they choose or deserve to be so. In this paper, I consider one type of brute bad luck that appears paradigmatic of what a Luck Egalitarian
- [Surveying Safety-relevant AI Characteristics](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/surveying-safety-relevant-ai-characteristics/) - Abstract The current analysis in the AI safety literature usually combines a risk or safety issue (e.g., interruptibility) with a particular paradigm for an AI agent (e.g., reinforcement learning). However, there is currently no survey of safety-relevant characteristics of AI systems that may reveal neglected areas of research or suggest to developers what design choices
- [Exploring artificial intelligence futures](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/exploring-artificial-intelligence-futures/) - Abstract Artificial intelligence technologies are receiving high levels of attention and ‘hype’, leading to a range of speculation about futures in which such technologies, and their successors, are commonly deployed. By looking at existing AI futures work, this paper surveys, and offers an initial categorisation of, several of the tools available for such futures-exploration, in
- [Perfectionism and the Repugnant Conclusion](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/perfectionism-repugnant-conclusion/) - Abstract The Repugnant Conclusion and its paradoxes pose a significant problem for outcome evaluation. Derek Parfit has suggested that we may be able to resolve this problem by accepting a view he calls ‘Perfectionism’, which gives lexically superior value to ‘the best things in life’. In this paper, I explore perfectionism and its potential to
- [Special Issue: Existential risk to humanity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/special-issue-existential-risk-humanity/) - Olle Häggström and Catherine Rhodes edited a Special Issue of Foresight on 'Existential risk to humanity' featuring the following 10 papers: Facing disaster: the great challenges framework - Phil Torres Complexity, creeping normalcy and conceit: sexy and unsexy catastrophic risks - Karin Kuhlemann Long-term trajectories of human civilization - Seth D. Baum , Stuart Armstrong , Timoteus Ekenstedt
- [Guest Editorial - Special Issue: Existential risk to humanity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/guest-editorial-special-issue-existential-risk-humanity/) - Abstract We are not yet at a stage where the study of existential risk is established as an academic discipline in its own right. Attempts to move in that direction are warranted by the importance of such research (considering the magnitude of what is at stake). One such attempt took place in Gothenburg, Sweden, during
- [Assessing contributions of major emitters' Paris‐era decisions to future temperature extremes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/assessing-contributions-extremes/) - Abstract The likelihood and severity of highâ€impact future temperature extremes can be reduced through climate change mitigation efforts. However, meeting the Paris Agreement warming limits requires notably stronger greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts by major emitters than existing pledges. We examine the impact of Parisâ€era decisionâ€making by the world's three largest greenhouse gas emitters (EU,
- [The Future of Feed: Integrating Technologies to Decouple Feed Production from Environmental Impacts](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/future-feed/) - Abstract Population growth, an expanding middle-class, and a global shift in dietary preferences have driven an enduring demand for animal products. Since animal products are playing a vital role in human diets, their consumption is predicted to increase further. However, the great dependency of animal husbandry on global staple feed crop soybean; the environmental consequences
- [Mediation Without Measures: Conflict Resolution in Climate Diplomacy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/mediation-without-measures/) - Dr Luke Kemp has a chapter on 'Conflict Resolution in Climate Diplomacy' in the new Research Handbook on Mediating International Crises, edited by Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Kyle Beardsley and David Quinn. Current conceptions of mediation can often fail to capture the complexity and intricacy of modern conflicts. This Research Handbook addresses this problem by presenting the leading
- [Learning from the Climate Change Debate to Avoid Polarisation on Negative Emissions](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/learning-climate-change-debate-avoid-polarisation-negative-emissions/) - Abstract This paper identifies critical lessons from the climate change experience to guide how communications and engagement on negative emissions can be conducted to encourage functional public and policy discourse. Negative emissions technologies present a significant opportunity for limiting climate change, and are likely to be necessary to keep warming below 2°C. While the concept
- [How to respond to the potential malicious uses of artificial intelligence?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-respond-potential-malicious-uses-artificial-intelligence/) - Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) is beginning to change our world – for better and for worse. Like any other powerful and useful technology, it can be used both to help and to harm. We explored this in a major Febuary 2018 report The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation. We co-authored this report
- [Book Review: Climate Justice: Integrating Economics and Philosophy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/book-review-climate-justice-integrating-economics-and-philosophy/) - Abstract Debates about justice are increasingly seen as vital to policy-making and international dialogue on climate change and how we should respond to it. While many disciplines have participated in these debates, philosophers and economists are often the most vocal. However, given the many historical disagreements between these disciplines this raises the question of whether
- [Human Extinction and Our Obligations to the Past](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/human-extinction-and-our-obligations-past/) - Abstract On certain plausible views, if humanity were to unanimously decide to cause its own extinction, this would not be wrong, since there is no one whom this act would wrong. We argue this is incorrect. Causing human extinction would still wrong someone; namely, our forebears who sacrificed life, limb and livelihood for the good
- [Law and Policy Responses to Disaster-Induced Financial Distress](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/law-and-policy-responses-financial-distress/) - Abstract This chapter treats disaster response policies directed at the economic recovery of private households. First, we examine problems of disaster-induced financial distress from a legal and economic perspective. We do this both qualitatively and quantitatively, and focussing on residential loans, using the victims of the 11 March 2011 tsunami as our example. Then, using
- [An Analysis and Evaluation of Methods Currently Used to Quantify the Likelihood of Existential Hazards](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/analysis-evaluation-methods/) - Abstract This paper examines and evaluates the range of methods that have been used to make quantified claims about the likelihood of Existential Hazards. In doing so, it draws on a comprehensive literature review of such claims that we present in an appendix. The paper uses an informal evaluative framework to consider the relative merits
- [Accumulating evidence using crowdsourcing and machine learning: a living bibliography about existential risk and global catastrophic risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/accumulating-evidence-using-crowdsourcing-and-machine-learning-living-bibliography-about-existential-risk-and-global-catastrophic-risk/) - Highlights Crowdsourcing: 51 participants assessed 10,001 publications that are potentially relevant to the study of existential risk Machine learning: new publications are automatically assessed by a neural network and verified by participants The “living bibliography” is updated every month, and it is freely available online at www.x-risk.net Abstract The study of existential risk—the risk of human
- [The Growth and Decline of the Western Roman Empire: Quantifying the Dynamics of Army Size, Territory, and Coinage](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/growth-decline-western-roman-empire/) - Abstract We model the Western Roman Empire from 500 BCE to 500 CE, aiming to understand the interdependent dynamics of army size, conquered territory and the production and debasement of coins within the empire. The relationships are represented through feed-back relationships and modelled mathematically via a dynamical system, specified as a set of ordinary differential
- [The tension between openness and prudence in responsible AI research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/tension-between-openness-and-prudence-responsible-ai-research/) - Abstract This paper explores the tension between openness and prudence in AI research, evident in two core principles of the Montréal Declaration for Responsible AI. While the AI community has strong norms around open sharing of research, concerns about the potential harms arising from misuse of research are growing, prompting some to consider whether the
- [Activism by the AI Community: Analysing Recent Achievements and Future Prospects](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/activism-ai-community-analysing-recent-achievements-and-future-prospects/) - Abstract The artificial intelligence (AI) community has recently engaged in activism in relation to their employers, other members of the community, and their governments in order to shape the societal and ethical implications of AI. It has achieved some notable successes, but prospects for further political organising and activism are uncertain. We survey activism by
- [To Divest or to Engage? A Case Study of Investor Responses to Climate Activism](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/divest-or-engage-case-study/) - Abstract An increasing number of investors face the dilemma of whether to divest from environmentally damaging businesses or enter into a dialogue with them. This debate has now taken root in Cambridge, England, where the ancient University of Cambridge confronts great pressure from students and staff members to respond to the threat of climate breakdown.
- [On the Wrongness of Human Extinction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/wrongness-human-extinction/) - Abstract In recent papers, Elizabeth Finneron-Burns and Johann Frick have both argued that it is not a wrong-making feature of human extinction that it would cause many potential people with lives worth living never to be born, and hence that causing human extinction would be, in at least one way, less wrong than many have
- [Exploring AI Futures Through Role Play](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-futures-role-play/) - Abstract We present an innovative methodology for studying and teaching the impacts of AI through a role play game. The game serves two primary purposes: 1) training AI developers and AI policy professionals to reflect on and prepare for future social and ethical challenges related to AI and 2) exploring possible futures involving AI technology
- [Beyond Near- and Long-Term: Towards a Clearer Account of Research Priorities in AI Ethics and Society](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/beyond-near-long-term/) - Abstract One way of carving up the broad "AI ethics and society" research space that has emerged in recent years is to distinguish between "near-term" and "long-term" research. While such ways of breaking down the research space can be useful, we put forward several concerns about the near/long-term distinction gaining too much prominence in how
- [Embrace experimentation in biosecurity governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/embrace-experimentation-biosecurity/) - Abstract As biological research and its applications rapidly evolve, new attempts at the governance of biology are emerging, challenging traditional assumptions about how science works and who is responsible for governing. However, these governance approaches often are not evaluated, analyzed, or compared. This hinders the building of a cumulative base of experience and opportunities for
- [Overcoming Barriers to Cross-cultural Cooperation in AI Ethics and Governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cross-cultural-cooperation/) - Abstract Achieving the global benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) will require international cooperation on many areas of governance and ethical standards, while allowing for diverse cultural perspectives and priorities. There are many barriers to achieving this at present, including mistrust between cultures, and more practical challenges of coordinating across different locations. This paper focuses particularly
- [Point of View: Bioengineering horizon scan 2020](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bioengineering-horizon-scan-2020/) - Abstract Horizon scanning is intended to identify the opportunities and threats associated with technological, regulatory and social change. In 2017 some of the present authors conducted a horizon scan for bioengineering (Wintle et al., 2017). Here we report the results of a new horizon scan that is based on inputs from a larger and more
- [A capital theory approach should guide national sustainability policies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/capital-theory-approach-should-guide-national-sustainability-policies/) - Abstract The question of how to sustain human development in the current ecological and institutional landscape is arguably one of the utmost scientific and administratively challenging contemporary dilemmas. In response to this issue, the concept of Sustainable Development was proposed by the United Nations to inform policies for societal and human development. However, for national
- [Famine Dynamics: The Self-undermining Structures of the Global Food System](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/famine-dynamics-self-undermining-structures-global-food-system/) - Abstract Civilization has steered itself onto a vicious spiral. The modern system of agriculture, upon which global food security hinges, devours the planet’s scarce supplies of fertile lands, fresh water, productive fisheries and forest ecosystems. 821 million lives hang in the balance, already suffering famine and all forms of malnutrition, while early signs of an
- [Existential Risk Assessment: A reply to Baum](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/existential-risk-assessment-reply-baum/) - Highlights Seth Baum’s reply to our paper “An analysis and evaluation of methods currently used to quantify the likelihood of existential hazards” makes a very valuable contribution to this literature. We raise some concerns about the definitions of terms like ‘existential catastrophe’ and how they can be both normative and non-normative. While accepting Baum’s contention
- [Justifying subsistence emissions, past and present](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/justifying-subsistence-emissions-past-and-present/) - Abstract ‘One way in which normative theory can guarantee being irrelevant is to keep discussing the same formulations of the issues while the world moves on’ – H. Shue In a number of early articles reflecting on the normative issues raised by climate change, Henry Shue argues for, and elaborates on, a set of issues
- [The limit of climate justice: unfair sacrifice and aggregate harm](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/limit-climate-justice-unfair-sacrifice-and-aggregate-harm/) - Abstract This article revisits a principle of distributive justice accepted by most, if not all, scholars of climate justice. The principle at stake, the limit, protects those who are very badly off from bearing the costs of climate change mitigation. The persistent noncompliance of developed states with their obligations toward burden sharing, however, means that this
- [Canaries in Technology Mines: Warning Signs of Transformative Progress in AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/canaries-technology-mines/) - Abstract In this paper we introduce a methodology for identifying early warning signs of transformative progress in AI, to aid anticipatory governance and research prioritisation. We propose using expert elicitation methods to identify milestones in AI progress, followed by collaborative causal mapping to identify key milestones which underpin several others. We call these key milestones ‘canaries’
- [‘Solving for X?’ Towards a problem-finding framework to ground long-term governance strategies for artificial intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/solving-x/) - Abstract Change is hardly a new feature in human affairs. Yet something has begun to change in change. In the face of a range of emerging, complex, and interconnected global challenges, society’s collective governance efforts may need to be put on a different footing. Many of these challenges derive from emerging technological developments – take
- [Photosynthetically Controlled Spirulina, but Not Solar Spirulina, Inhibits TNF-α Secretion: Potential Implications for COVID-19-Related Cytokine Storm Therapy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/photosynthetically-controlled-spirulina-not-solar-spirulina-inhibits-tnf-secretion-potential-implications-covid-19-related-cytokine-storm-therapy/) - Abstract An array of infections, including the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), trigger macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) and subsequently hypercytokinemia, commonly referred to as a cytokine storm (CS). It is postulated that CS is mainly responsible for critical COVID-19 cases, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Recognizing the therapeutic potential of Spirulina blue-green algae (Arthrospira platensis), in this
- [AI Reflections in 2020](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-reflections-2020/) - Abstract Nature Machine Intelligence invited authors of selected Comments and Perspectives published in Nature Machine Intelligence in the latter half of 2019 and first half of 2020 to describe how their topic has developed, what their thoughts are about the challenges of 2020, and what they look forward to in 2021. Read Full Paper
- [Re-framing the threat of global warming: an empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reframing-threat-global-warming/) - Abstract There is increasing concern that climate change poses an existential risk to humanity. Understanding these worst-case scenarios is essential for good risk management. However, our knowledge of the causal pathways through which climate change could cause societal collapse is underdeveloped. This paper aims to identify and structure an empirical evidence base of the climate
- [Artificial Canaries: Early Warning Signs for Anticipatory and Democratic Governance of AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/artificial-canaries/) - Abstract We propose a method for identifying early warning signs of transformative progress in artificial intelligence (AI), and discuss how these can support the anticipatory and democratic governance of AI. We call these early warning signs ‘canaries’, based on the use of canaries to provide early warnings of unsafe air pollution in coal mines. Our
- [The Societal Implications of Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/societal-implications-drl/) - Abstract Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is an avenue of research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) that has received increasing attention within the research community in recent years, and is beginning to show potential for real-world application. DRL is one of the most promising routes towards developing more autonomous AI systems that interact with and take actions
- [Biosafety in DIY‐bio laboratories: from hype to policy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biosafety-diybio/) - Discussions about regulating DIY biology tend to ignore the extent of selfâ€regulation and oversight of DIY laboratories Abstract: DIY biology – very broadly construed as the practice of biological experiments outside of traditional research environments such as universities, research institutes or companies – has, during the past decade, gained much prominence. This increased attention has
- [Research community dynamics behind popular AI benchmarks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/popular-ai-benchmarks/) - Abstract The widespread use of experimental benchmarks in AI research has created competition and collaboration dynamics that are still poorly understood. Here we provide an innovative methodology to explore these dynamics and analyse the way different entrants in these challenges, from academia to tech giants, behave and react depending on their own or others’ achievements.
- [Barriers to AI Adoption in Indian Agriculture: An Initial Inquiry](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/barriers-ai-adoption-indian-agriculture-initial-inquiry/) - Abstract Greater adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in Indian agriculture can contribute to regional and global food security. An examination of parameters that may prevent and postpone AI transfer, diffusion, and adoption is essential. However, little research on AI adoption barriers in Indian agriculture has been conducted. This paper attends to the gap. In order
- [Historical dynamics of the Chinese dynasties](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/historical-dynamics-chinese-dynasties/) - Abstract We develop a framework for studying state division and unification, and as a case study we focus on modelling the territorial patterns in imperial China during periods of unity and upheaval. As a modelling tool we employ discrete dynamical systems and analyse two models: the logistic map and a new class of maps, which
- [Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/betting-best-case/) - Abstract We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential
- [Why shouldn’t we cut the human-biosphere umbilical cord?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/why-shouldnt-we-cut-human-biosphere-umbilical-cord/) - Abstract Scientific and technological advancements have made many wonderful things possible for humankind. As these continue to develop, civilization may evolve to a stage of technological maturity where humanity could, not merely survive, but flourish under the harshest possible environmental conditions, including those off-planet. Even now, aided by seedbanks and underground bunkers, small pockets of
- [Lockdowns, lives and livelihoods: the impact of COVID-19 and public health responses to conflict affected populations - a remote qualitative study in Baidoa and Mogadishu, Somalia](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lockdowns-lives-and-livelihoods-impact-covid-19-and-public-health-responses-conflict-affected-populations-remote-qualitative-study-baidoa-and-mogadishu-somalia/) - Abstract Background: Authorities in Somalia responded with drastic measures after the first confirmed COVID-19 case inmid-March 2020, closing borders, schools, limiting travel and prohibiting most group functions. However, theimpact of the pandemic in Somalia thereafter remained unclear. This study employs a novel remote qualitativeresearch method in a conflict-affected setting to look at how some of
- [Future Foods for Urban Food Production](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/future-foods-urban-food-production/) - Abstract Urban food security, a global concern for over four billion city dwellers, currently relies on traditional staple foods, underpinned by conventional systems of food production and provision. These systems and supply chains are vulnerable to a litany of biotic and abiotic risks, and thereby to yield failures. Future foods, including microalgae, macroalgae, bivalve mollusks,
- [A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/fate-worse-warming-stratospheric-aerosol-injection-and-global-catastrophic-risk/) - Abstract Injecting particles into atmosphere to reflect sunlight, stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), represents a potential technological solution to the threat of climate change. But could the cure be worse than the disease? Understanding low probability, yet plausible, high-impact cases is critical to prudent climate risk management and SAI deliberation. But analyses of such high impact
- [Filling gaps in trustworthy development of AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/filling-gaps-trustworthy-development-ai/) - Abstract The range of application of artificial intelligence (AI) is vast, as is the potential for harm. Growing awareness of potential risks from AI systems has spurred action to address those risks while eroding confidence in AI systems and the organizations that develop them. A 2019 study (1) found more than 80 organizations that have
- [Disaster Displacement and Zoonotic Disease Dynamics: The Impact of Structural and Chronic Drivers in Sindh, Pakistan](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/disaster-displacement-and-zoonotic-disease-dynamics-impact-structural-and-chronic-drivers-sindh-pakistan/) - Abstract Pathways for infectious disease transmission including zoonoses, diseases transmitted between animals and humans, are complex and non-linear. While forced migration is considered an important driver for the spread of zoonoses, actual disease dynamics remain under researched. This paper presents the findings of a case study investigating how disaster displacement affected zoonotic disease transmission risk
- [Six novel interdisciplinary resilience principles emerging from interdisciplinary exchange around post-COVID-19 centres and peripheries](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/six-novel-interdisciplinary-resilience-principles-emerging-interdisciplinary-exchange-around-post-covid-19-centres-and-peripheries/) - Introduction Urban centres and peripheries shape the texture and quality of everyday life, our ability to coexist with and benefit from nature, the risks we face, and our resiliency (UN 2019). Here we report on lessons we draw as organizers of and presenters at an interdisciplinary, international, and (necessarily) virtual symposium, ‘Centres and Peripheries: Reconfiguring Post-COVID-19 Landscapes’, which took place on 5 February 2021, and was funded
- [The Transformative Potential of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/transformative-potential-artificial-intelligence/) - Abstract The terms ‘human-level artificial intelligence’ and ‘artificial general intelligence’ are widely used to refer to the possibility of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) with potentially extreme impacts on society. These terms are poorly defined and do not necessarily indicate what is most important with respect to future societal impacts. We suggest that the term ‘transformative
- [When It Strikes, Are We Ready? Lessons Identified at the 7th Planetary Defense Conference in Preparing for a Near-Earth Object Impact Scenario](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/when-it-strikes-are-we-ready-lessons-identified-7th-planetary-defense-conference-preparing-near-earth-object-impact-scenario/) - Abstract Near-Earth object (NEO) impact is one of the examples of high impact and low probability (HILP) event, same as the Covid-19 pandemic the world faces since the beginning of 2020. The 7th Planetary Defense Conference held by the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) in April 2021 included an exercise on a hypothetical NEO impact
- [General intelligence disentangled via a generality metric for natural and artificial intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/general-intelligence-disentangled-generality-metric-natural-and-artificial-intelligence/) - Abstract Success in all sorts of situations is the most classical interpretation of general intelligence. Under limited resources, however, the capability of an agent must necessarily be limited too, and generality needs to be understood as comprehensive performance up to a level of difficulty. The degree of generality then refers to the way an agent’s capability is distributed
- [Integrationism, practice-dependence and global justice](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/integrationism-practice-dependence-and-global-justice/) - Abstract An increasingly popular approach to global justice claims we should be ‘integrationist,’ where integrationism represents an attempt to unify our theorising between different domains of global politics. These political theorists have argued that we cannot identify plausible principles in one domain, such as climate justice, which are not sensitive to general moral concerns. This
- [A solution scan of societal options to reduce transmission and spread of respiratory viruses: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/solution-scan-societal-options-reduce-transmission-and-spread-respiratory-viruses-sars-cov-2-case-study/) - Abstract Societal biosecurity – measures built into everyday society to minimize risks from pests and diseases – is an important aspect of managing epidemics and pandemics. We aimed to identify societal options for reducing the transmission and spread of respiratory viruses. We used SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) as a case study to meet the immediate
- [Optimum Population, Global Inequality, and Environmental Constraints: A Utilitarian Perspective](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/optimum-population-and-environmental-constraints-utilitarian-perspective/) - Abstract In the Utilitarian tradition of Henry Sidgwick, population ethics is to be considered through the expectation of the sum of utilities of all who are ever born. However, this is unsuited for application to the real world because it takes as its subject the choice to be made by an idealized “objective social planner”
- [Huge volcanic eruptions: time to prepare](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/huge-volcanic-eruptions/) - Michael Cassidy and Lara Mani had a comment piece in Nature arguing that more must be done to forecast and try to manage globally disruptive volcanic eruptions. The risks are greater than people think. Read full article
- [Risk sensitive scheduling strategies of production studios on the US movie market: An agent-based simulation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/risk-sensitive-scheduling-strategies-production-studios-us-movie-market-agent-based-simulation/) - Abstract The movie industry is a highly differentiated context where production studios compete in non-price product attributes, which influences the box office results of a motion picture. Because of the short life cycle and the constant entrance of new competitive products, temporal decisions play a crucial role. Time series of the number of movies on
- [A master equation for power laws](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/master-equation-power-laws/) - Abstract We propose a new mechanism for generating power laws. Starting from a random walk, we first outline a simple derivation of the Fokker–Planck equation. By analogy, starting from a certain Markov chain, we derive a master equation for power laws that describes how the number of cascades changes over time (cascades are consecutive transitions
- [Huw Price: “Science of Existential Risk” Arizona workshop](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/huw/) - Huw Price led a workshop titled “Towards A New Science of Existential Riskâ€, as part of the “Evidence, Ideology, and Orthodoxy: Science in the University and the Public Sphereâ€Â  conference at Arizona State University on the 6th-8th of February. The workshop investigated efforts to establish new approaches to studying existential threats. The event was co-sponsored by the
- [AI — Can we keep it in the box?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-can-we-keep-it-box/) - We know how to deal with suspicious packages – as carefully as possible! These days, we let robots take the risk. But what if the robots are the risk? Some commentators argue we should be treating AI (artificial intelligence) as a suspicious package, because it might eventually blow up in our faces. Should we be worried? Exploding intelligence? Asked
- [Cambridge, Cabs and Copenhagen: My Route to Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cambridge-cabs-and-copenhagen-my-route-existential/) - In Copenhagen the summer before last, I shared a taxi with a man who thought his chance of dying in an artificial intelligence-related accident was as high as that of heart disease or cancer. No surprise if he’d been the driver, perhaps (never tell a taxi driver that you’re a philosopher!), but this was a
- [Astronomer Royal on science, environment and the future](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/astronomer-royal-science-environment-and-future/) - This is a transcript of a speech given at the British Science Festival in Newcastle on September 12. It’s always a pleasure to speak at the British (Science) Association, but there are two special reasons why I’m glad to be here today. I was myself the Association’s president last time the Festival was held here,
- [Martin Rees on Night Waves](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-night-waves/) - Michael Grandage, Artificial Intelligence, Jonas Mekas Matthew Sweet speaks to acclaimed director Michael Grandage whose theatre company launches with a new production of Peter Nichols's celebrated play Privates on Parade. As a new centre in Cambridge is set up to assess the dangers that might arise from progress in artificial intelligence, Matthew Sweet talks to one
- [La destruction de l’humanité par la technologie comme discipline universitaire](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/la-destruction-de-lhumanite-par-la-technologie-com/) - At first admired by sci-fi screenwriters and disaster filmmakers (from "2001" to "Terminator"), the destruction of humanity through technology is now a university discipline. At Cambridge University, a study center of the existential risk -The Center for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) - whose next opening is announced by the Site Engineering and Technology magazine, will
- [Centre to study technology risks to humans](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/centre-study-technology-risks-humans/) - Researchers at the University of Cambridge have proposed a new centre that will study the risks of technology to humans. The researchers - which include a philosopher, a scientist, and a software engineer - have come together to propose the new centre at Cambridge. The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) would address
- [Humanity’s last invention and our uncertain future](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/humanitys-last-invention-and-our-uncertain-future/) - A philosopher, a scientist and a software engineer have come together to propose a new centre at Cambridge to address developments in human technologies that might pose “extinction-level” risks to our species, from biotechnology to artificial intelligence. In 1965, Irving John ‘Jack’ Good sat down and wrote a paper for New Scientist called Speculations concerning the
- [Mega-risks that could drive us to extinction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/mega-risks-could-drive-us-extinction/) - The end is not nigh, but it could be unless we constrain our own technological ingenuity. That’s the warning from an initiative in Cambridge, UK, that wants to create a centre to focus on huge, technological hazards that could wipe out the human race at a stroke. These dangers would include robots that escape our
- [Life as we know it](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/life-we-know-it/) - Although life as we know it gets a lot of flack, I worry that we don't appreciate it enough and are too complacent about losing it. As our "Spaceship Earth" blazes though cold and barren space, it both sustains and protects us. It's stocked with major but limited supplies of water, food and fuel. Its
- [Towards A New Science of Existential Risk (workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/towards-a-new-science-of-existential-risk/) - Huw Price led a workshop titled “Towards A New Science of Existential Risk”, as part of the “Evidence, Ideology, and Orthodoxy: Science in the University and the Public Sphere” conference at Arizona State University on the 6th-8th of February. The workshop investigated efforts to establish new approaches to studying existential threats. The event was co-sponsored by the
- [Public Lecture: Existential Risk: Surviving the 21st Century, February 26th 5:30pm](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lecture1/) - CSER is pleased to present a public lecture on “Existential Risk: Surviving the 21st Century†alongside 80,000 Hours: Cambridge and Giving What We Can: Cambridge DATE: Wednesday, February 26th at 5:30pm-6:45pm (drinks reception to follow). LOCATION: Lady Mitchell Hall, Sidgwick Site, Cambridge SPEAKERS: Lord Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal Jaan Tallinn, co-founder of Skype Huw Price, Bertrand Russell Professor
- [Advisory board additions - Peter Singer and Stuart Russell](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/advisory-board-additions-peter-singer-and-stuart-r/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is delighted to welcome two more world-leading academic experts to its Advisory Board. Peter Singer is Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University and a Laureate Professor at the University of Melbourne. In addition to his high-profile work in bioethics, he is a leading figure in Effective Altruism,
- [CSER Funding update: new sponsors](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-funding-update-new-sponsors/) - Two new sponsors, Matt Wage and Victoria Elenowitz, have generously agreed to build on Jaan Tallinn’s initial seed funding for the Centre. Mr. Wage is a member of the effective altruist organisation 80,000 Hours and was instrumental in establishing The Life You Can Save. He currently works in finance and supports what his research suggests
- [Ó hÉigeartaigh interviewed on trajectories and risks of AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/o-heigeartaigh-interviewed-on-trajectories-and-ris/) - Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh was recently interviewed by RealClearTechnology on the future prospects and risks of artificial intelligence, alongside the Machine Intelligence Research Institute‘s Luke Muehlhauser and NYU’s Professor Gary Marcus: “Most of the AI applications we are familiar with represent “narrow†intelligence,†O’Heigeartaigh said. “Like Deep Blue and chess, they are hard-coded to do a
- [CSER inaugural lecture - Panel](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-inaugural-lecture-panel/) - Over 300 students, professors, and members of the public gathered in Cambridge’s Lady Mitchell Hall for the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s inaugural lecture on February 26th. Co-hosted with 80,000 Hours: Cambridge and Giving What We Can: Cambridge, the lecture was delivered by Jaan Tallinn, Professor Huw Price, and Lord Martin Rees. We
- [Hundreds attend CSER public lecture (in association with 80,000 Hours)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/hundreds-attend-cser-lecture/) - Over 300 students, professors, and members of the public gathered in Cambridge’s Lady Mitchell Hall for the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s inaugural lecture on February 26th. Co-hosted with 80,000 Hours: Cambridge and Giving What We Can: Cambridge, the lecture was delivered by Jaan Tallinn, Professor Huw Price, and Lord Martin Rees.  We
- [Ó hÉigeartaigh: “Existential Risk as an Interdisciplinary Challenge](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/o-heigeartaigh-existential-risk-as-an-interdiscipl/) - Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh will speak about “Existential Risk as an Interdisciplinary Challenge†at TEDx Hasselt on the  29th of March (theme: “Unexpected Connectionsâ€). Talks will be available online.
- [Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature: Our Responsibility (Workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sustainable-humanity-sustainable-nature/) - Chair of the CSER Management Committee Professor Partha Dasgupta, in collaboration with Professor Veerabhadran Ramanathan (Atmospheric Sciences, UCSD) and Archbishop Roland Minnerath, convened a high-level workshop on global sustainability from the 2nd-6th of May in the Vatican, Italy. The 5 day workshop addressed crucial concerns over the relationship between human technological progress, the degradation of natural
- [Dasgupta and Bostrom nominated for "Most Important Thinker of 2014"](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dasgupta-and-bostrom-nominated-for-most-important/) - CSER advisors Partha Dasgupta and Nick Bostrom have been nominated for Prospect’s “Most Important Thinker of 2014â€, alongside Elon Musk, Pope Francis, and Martha Nussbaum. Voting is still open here.
- [CSER highlighted in South China Morning Post](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/south-china-morning-post/) - Last month the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk was featured in the South China Morning Post. Topics included the Centre’s concerns with rapidly developing technology and the members on the Centre’s advisory board. To view the article, please see here.
- [Complacency in the face of AI risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/complacency-in-the-face-of-ai-risk/) - CSER advisors Max Tegmark, Stuart Russell, Stephen Hawking join with Nobel Laureate Frank Wilczek to highlight the very plausible risks that may lie ahead in the development of artificial intelligence. Transcending Complacency on Superintelligence Machines
- [Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature: Our Responsibility](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sustainable-humanity-sustainable-nature-our-respon/) - CSER Chair Professor Partha Dasgupta, in collaboration with Professor Veerabhadran Ramanathan (Atmospheric Sciences, UCSD) and Archbishop Roland Minnerath, convened a high-level workshop on global sustainability from the 2nd-6th of May in the Vatican, Italy. The 5 day workshop addressed crucial concerns over the relationship between human technological progress, the degradation of natural capital, and economic
- [A new existential risk reduction organisation has launched in Cambridge, Massachusetts](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/fli/) - Last week, CSER founder Jaan Tallinn spoke at the launch of the Future of Life Institute, for which he is one of five founding members. FLi stands to become an important voice for the reduction of existential risk – its mission is “To catalyze and support research and initiatives for safeguarding life and developing optimistic
- [Martin Rees chairs 2014 Longitude Prize](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/longitude-prize/) - “We’re asking the UK public to vote for which of the six areas should have top priority, and be the focus of the Longitude Prize 2014,†says Martin Rees, who is leading the 2014 Longitude Prize. The Longitude Prize is a £10 million science and technology prize developed with Nesta and the Technology Strategy Board. Potential
- [Prof David Spiegelhalter knighted](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/prof-david-spiegelhalter-knighted/) - Professor David Spiegelhalter was knighted in the queens birthday ceremony last weekend. Known to the public as Professor Risk, Spiegelhalter was honoured for his services to statistics. Sir David has been the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge since October 2007, and is an advisor to the Cambridge Centre for Study
- [Our science-fiction apocalypse: Meet the scientists trying to predict the end of the world](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/our-science-fiction-apocalypse-meet-scientists-try/) - How exotic and unlikely-sounding disasters could kill every last human being. It’s been a summer of bad news: what with increasingly bleak-seeming geopolitical turmoil and conflict in American streets, not to mention all the carbon spewing into the atmosphere faster than ever. But I’ve been talking to experts in the field of catastrophic risk, and I’m
- [Extreme Technological Risks - German Government (Workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-technological-risks-german-government-work/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is delighted to partner with the German government in organising a high-level workshop on existential and extreme technological risks, to take place on Friday September 19th. The meeting will bring together leading German and UK research networks to focus on emerging technological threats, and will be hosted
- [Professor Tim Palmer added to CSER's advisory board](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/professor-tim-palmer-added-to-csers-advisory-board/) - Professor Tim Palmer has been newly added to CSER’s advisory board. Palmer is Royal Society Anniversary Research Professor at the University of Oxford, is a Senior Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and was President of the Royal Meteorological Society from 2011-12. This year, he was awarded the Dirac Medal and Prize by the Institute of Physics for
- [Two Church papers on gene drive technologies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/625/) - This week, CSER advisor George Church has co-authored two papers on gene drive technologies, renewing interest in their risks and benefits. First proposed ten years ago, gene drive technology stimulates a gene to be preferentially inherited so that it can spread through the population. Although gene drives are not yet able to be implemented, they are coming
- [CSER welcomes Professor Chris Lowe to advisory board](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/chris-lowe/) - CSER is happy to welcome Professor Chris Lowe to our advisory board.  As Professor of Biotechnology and Director of the Institute of Biotechnology at the University of Cambridge, he is perfectly suited to provide guidance on emerging risks from advanced biotechnologies. Professor Lowe has received many awards including being named the ‘Most Entrepreneurial Scientist of the UK’ in 2006
- [CSER co-founders Price and Tallinn at the Festival of Dangerous Ideas](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-co-founders-price-and-tallinn-at-the-festival/) - Today and tomorrow CSER co-founders Huw Price and Jaan Tallin will  be presenting a series of dangerous ideas – that our continued survival and flourishing as a species is in our hands, that we may be in the most dangerous century of earth’s history, and that the responsibility we owe to future generations is far
- [CSER and German Government organise workshop on extreme technological risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-and-german-government-organise-workshop-on-ex/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is delighted to partner with the German government in organising a high-level workshop on existential and extreme technological risks, to take place on Friday September 19th. Â The meeting will bring together leading German and UK research networks to focus on emerging technological threats, and will be hosted
- [Is Artificial Intelligence a Threat?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/artificial-intelligence-threat/) - When the world ends, it may not be by fire or ice or an evil robot overlord. Our demise may come at the hands of a superintelligence that just wants more paper clips. So says Nick Bostrom, a philosopher who founded and directs the Future of Humanity Institute, in the Oxford Martin School at the University
- [Apocalypse soon: the scientists preparing for the end times](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/apocalypse-soon-scientists-preparing-end-times/) - A growing community of scientists, philosophers and tech billionaires believe we need to start thinking seriously about the threat of human extinction. The men were too absorbed in their work to notice my arrival at first. Three walls of the conference room held whiteboards densely filled with algebra and scribbled diagrams. One man jumped up to
- [Risks and benefits of gain-of-function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogens - Professor Marc Lipsitch](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/risks-and-benefits-of-gain-of-function/) - Professor Derek Smith, Professor of Infectious Disease Informatics at Cambridge, gives a response. Abstract: “A growing trend in experimental virology has been the modification of influenza viruses that are antigenically novel to, and virulent in humans, such that these variant viruses are readily transmissible in mammals, including ferrets which are thought to be the best animal model
- [Margaret Boden to interview on AI this week](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/margaret-boden-to-interview-on-ai-this-week/) - This Tuesday, Professor Margaret Boden, an advisor to CSER, will be interviewed on The Life Scientific on the topic of artificial intelligence. At 9am, on BBC radio 4, she will discuss the potential of artificial intelligence, as well as the potential insight of a computational approach to understanding the mind. If you can’t catch the segment, it will
- [5th IPCC Synthesis Report released](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/5th-ipcc-synthesis-report-released/) - The synthesis report from the IPCC’s fifth assessment period was released on Saturday. This document is a collective assessment of climate change by governments, subject to agreement by representatives of 195 government members. It reports that anthropogenic climate change poses substantial global risks, stressing the importance of keeping warming below 2 degrees celcius. It states
- [CSER features on The Science Network](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-features-in-the-science-network/) - The Science Network has uploaded a discussion on existential risk. Alongside CSER founder Martin Rees, this discussion features professor of supercomputing Larry Smarr and neuroscientists Roger Bingham and Terrence Sejnowski. In this discussion, they discuss some of the philosophy of CSER. It’s a good example of how eminent scientists from diverse fields are now assembling
- [Martin Rees speaks on Existential Risks at the Kennedy School of Government](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-kennedy-school-of-government-panel/) - This past week, CSER co-founder and emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics at Cambridge, Lord Rees, spoke at a panel on Catastrophic Risks, organised by the Harvard Kennedy School’s Program on Science Technology and Society in Cambridge, MA. Rees and the other panelists discussed risks ranging from artificial intelligence to climate change. “We just don’t
- [Martin Rees lecture in the New Statesman](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-comments-in-the-new-statesman/) - A new lecture that Martin Rees recently gave at Harvard’s Program on Science, Technology and Society, has now been published online in The New Statesman. In his talk, Martin Rees encouraged scientists and policymakers to consider hazards that might curtail the future development of human civilisation. Here is a short excerpt: In contrast, the hazards
- [Extreme technological risks in the Chief Scientific Advisor's annual report](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-technological-risks-in-the-chief-scientifi/) - CSER’s Huw Price and Sean O hEigeartaigh had a case study on geoengineering featured on the UK Chief Scientific Advisor’s annual report to the UK government. The case study used the example of sulphate aerosol geoengineering to illustrate the policy challenges associated with a potentially beneficial technology that may come with a small (though difficult
- [Rees launches Asteroid Day](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/rees-launches-asteroid-day/) - Yesterday, Martin Rees and other 100 other experts announced Asteroid Day. Asteroid day is an awareness movement dedicated to learning about asteroids and how to protect our planet. It will take place on the anniversary of the 1908 Siberian Tunguska event, starting on the 30th June 2015. At the launch event, Martin Rees read the
- [Stuart Russell argues for a new approach to AI risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stuart-russell-argues-for-a-new-approach-to-ai-ris/) - Stuart Russell, Professor of Computer Science at the University of California, Berkeley, author (with Peter Norvig) of Artificial Intelligence: A New Approach, and CSER External Advisor, has warned of risks from Artificial Intelligence, and encouraged researchers to rethink the goals of their research. Writing on edge.org, described by The Guardian as ‘an internet forum for
- [CSER Seminar: Mark Lipsitch: Risks and benefits of gain-of-function pathogen research (4pm, January 16th)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-seminar-mark-lipsitch-risks-and-benefits-of-g/) - 16 January 2015, 16:00 – 17:30 SG1, Alison Richard Building The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is pleased to announce a monthly seminar series beginning in January 2015. The January seminar will be given by Professor Marc Lipsitch (Harvard) : “Risks and benefits of gain-of-function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogens. How should we
- [Stuart Russell on AI in the news](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stuart-russell-on-ai-in-the-news/) - Speaking from the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Professor Stuart Russell gave an interview distinguishing the two different ways AI has been in the news recently. Firstly, stories about the effects on jobs and the economy we might see as intelligent systems are able to do more of the tasks currently done by humans. Secondly,
- [CSER advisors respond to the edge.org annual question: What do you think about machines that think?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-advisors-respond-to-the-edge-org-annual-quest/) - A wide range of CSER’s advisors, including co-founder Martin Rees, responded to edge.org’s annual question earlier this month. Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, Nick Bostrom, George Church, Alison Gopnik, Murray Shanahan, and Lord Rees offered a range of opinions on the prospects, dangers and possibilities of machine intelligence. George Church considered the task of applying our current understanding of
- [Technological Risks in the World Economic Forum's 2015 Global Risk Report](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/technological-risks-in-the-world-economic-forums-2/) - This year, the World Economic Forum have featured risks from emerging technology in their tenth Global Risks Report. In this lucid 50-page long document, specific note is made of the challenges associated with regulating risks that are extreme or unforeseen: The establishment of new fundamental capabilities, as is happening for example with synthetic biology and
- [The World in 2050 and beyond](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/world-2050-and-beyond/) - In today’s runaway world, we can’t aspire to leave a monument lasting 1,000 years, but it would surely be shameful if we persisted in policies that denied future generations a fair inheritance and left them with a more depleted and more hazardous world. I’ll start with a flashback to 1902. In that year the young
- [Minds Like Ours: An Approach To AI Risk - Murray Shanahan](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/murray-shanahan/) - Writers who speculate about the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and its attendant risks often caution against anthropomorphism, the tendency to ascribe human-like characteristics to something non human. An AI that is engineered from first principles will attain its goals in ways that would be hard to predict, and therefore hard to control, especially if
- [Gain of Function Influenza Research - Lecture online](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/gain-of-function-influenza-research-lecture-online/) - The recording for CSER’s January seminar on gain of function influenza research (a discussion between Professors Marc Lipsitch and Derek Smith) is now online.  In response to the interest we’ve received, we will aim to record and put all of CSER’s seminars online. They will be available the week after the event on our
- [Climate and Sustainability in Multiple Dimensions: seminar series by CSaP](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-and-sustainability-in-multiple-dimensions/) - The Centre for Science and Policy, Cambridge University, have a new seminar series beginning this month on Climate and Sustainability in Multiple Dimensions. The seminars will run on consecutive Thursdays, 26 February – 19 March, 17:30-19:00 at the Yusuf Hamied Theatre, Christ’s College, Cambridge. All seminars will be followed by a drinks reception. The Centre for Science and Policy and
- ["Minds like ours" online shortly](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/minds-like-ours-online-shortly/) - Thank you to everyone who came to CSER’s second seminar on Friday. We were humbled and taken by surprise by the huge level of interest, and would like to apologise to anyone who came but could not get a seat. However, for anyone who missed it Professor Murray Shanahan’s talk will be online shortly, most
- [Philosophy/CSER/MIRI conference: "Decision Theory and Artificial Intelligence"](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/philosophycsermiri-conference-decision-theory-and/) - Self-prediction in Decision Theory and Artificial Intelligence Conference Cambridge’s Faculty of Philosophy will host a conference on Self-prediction in Decision Theory and Artificial Intelligence from the 13th to the 19th of May 2015. The conference is organized in conjunction with the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) in Berkeley, CA, and the Centre for the Study
- [An Approach to AI Risk - Lecture online](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/an-approach-to-ai-risk-lecture-online/) - The recording of Professor Murray Shanahan’s talk ‘Minds Like Ours: An Approach to AI Risk’ at CSER’s February seminar is now online. We are grateful for the high level of interest in our seminars. Videos from all our events are available at the CSER Youtube Channel.
- [New Reports on the Philosophy of Existential Risk, by FHI Oxford](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-reports-on-the-philosophy-of-existential-risk/) - The Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University, have recently released two technical reports on the philosophy of existential risk. The first examines the strengths and weaknesses of two existing definitions of existential risk, and suggest a new definition based on expected value. The full technical report is available to read on the FHI website. The second, on
- [Partha Dasgupta and Martin Rees to discuss recent Pontifical Academy seminar.](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/952/) - This Thursday, CSER’s Partha Dasgupta and Martin Rees will give a seminar in relation to a workshop that recently took place at the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences. This workshop, entitled Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature: Our Responsibility was co-convened by Sir Dasgupta and attended by Lord Rees. It explored how we can fulfil our desire for sustained economic and technological growth
- [New research vacancies at CSER](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-research-vacancies-at-cser/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is recruiting for up to four full-time postdoctoral research associates to work on the project Towards a Science of Extreme Technological Risk. We are looking for outstanding and highly-committed researchers, interested in working as part of growing research community, with research projects relevant to any aspect of
- [CSER Seminar April 24th: Will We Cause Our Own Extinction?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/april-seminar/) - CSER’s April seminar will be on Friday 24th April, 4.00-5.30pm.  Dr Toby Ord (Oxford) will present on the topic “Will we cause our own extinction? Natural versus anthropogenic extinction risks†Toby Ord is a Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University & Oxford Martin School. He works on theoretical and practical questions concerning population
- [Will We Cause Our Own Extinction? - Dr Toby Ord](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extinction/) - Abstract How will humanity go extinct? Is it more likely to be from natural causes such as an asteroid impact or anthropogenic causes such as a nuclear war? Using the fossil record, we can place a rough upper bound on the probability of human extinction from natural causes: all natural causes put together have
- [Learn more about CSER](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/learn-more-about-cser/) - We are grateful to the Future of Life Institute and writer Sophie Hebdon for an excellent piece about our work at CSER. Ever since our ancestors discovered how to make sharp stones more than two and a half million years ago, our mastery of tools has driven our success as a species. But as our
- [Jaan Tallinn on thinking from first principles](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/jaan-tallinn-on-thinking-from-first-principles/) - Jaan Tallinn, one of CSER’s three cofounders, has recently given an interview for John Brockman’s Edge.org. In this interview, Jaan discusses the difficulty of thinking clearly about existential risks: Elon Musk said at his interview at the TED conference a couple of years ago, that there are two kinds of thinking. All of humanity, most
- [This Friday 24th: April seminar and recruitment deadlines](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/this-friday-24th-april-seminar-and-recruitment-dea/) - A brief reminder that the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s next seminar will take place this Friday April 24th at 4pm at the Little Hall, Sidgwick Site, Cambridge, CB3 9DA. The speaker is Oxford’s Dr Toby Ord giving a seminar titled “Will we cause our own extinction? Natural versus anthropogenic extinction risksâ€. The
- [Nick Bostrom TED Talk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nick-bostrom-ted-talk/) - Today, a TED talk by FHI Director and CSER Advisor Professor Nick Bostrom went online. In his presentation, What Happens When Our Computers Get Smarter Than We Are? Bostrom reviewed the possible consequences of reaching human-level artificial intelligence, and some considerations for safety strategies. Here is an excerpt, in which he describes how hard he
- [Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/existential-risk/) - The reasons why I'm engaged in trying to lower the existential risks has to do with the fact that I'm a convinced consequentialist. We have to take responsibility for modeling the consequences of our actions, and then pick the actions that yield the best outcomes. Moreover, when you start thinking about—in the pallet of actions
- [The Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence - Professor Stuart Russell](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/future-of-ai/) - Abstract The news media in recent months have been full of dire warnings about the risk that AI poses to the human race, coming from well-known figures such as Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates. Should we be concerned? If so, what can we do about it? While some in the mainstream AI community dismiss these concerns, I
- [Self-prediction in Decision Theory and Artificial Intelligence (Workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/self-prediction-in-decision-theory-ai/) - Cambridge’s Faculty of Philosophy will host a conference on Self-prediction in Decision Theory and Artificial Intelligence from the 13th to the 19th of May 2015. The conference is organized in conjunction with the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) in Berkeley, CA, and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (Cambridge). The local organizers are
- [CSER Public Lecture: Stuart Russell on Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stuart-russell-public-lecture-at-cser-may-15th/) - We’re delighted to announce that Professor Stuart Russell (Berkeley) will be giving a CSER public lecture on May 15th. The lecture is free and open to everyone, but demand is expected to be high so pre-registration is necessary. Registration and details are available here. The Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence Abstract: The news media in
- [Partha Dasgupta and Martin Rees at recent Vatican meeting](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/partha-dasgupta-and-martin-rees-at-recent-vatican/) - Partha Dasgupta and Martin Rees of CSER both spoke at a the Pontifical Summit just yesterday. At this summit, entitled Protect The Earth, Dignify Humanity, they both spoke to the need for us to include our environmental impact in our measurement of progress. Sir Dasgupta, Chair of CSER, argued that we should move on from
- [Partha Dasgupta authors climate change paper for the Vatican](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/partha-dasgupta-authors-climate-change-paper-for-t/) - Partha Dasgupta, Chair of CSER, is the lead author for the Vatican workshop report, Climate Change and the Common Good: A Statement Of The Problem And The Demand For Transformative Solutions. This statement summarizes scientific agreement from the recent Protect The Earth, Dignify Humanity summit. Its authors recommend that the Catholic Church can help by
- [Stuart Russell Public Lecture](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stuart-russell-public-lecture/) - Tickets for Stuart Russell’s public lecture on Friday 15th May 2015 have currently sold out. There may be a small release of further tickets during the week beginning 11th May 2015. To be considered for these, please add your name to the waiting list via Eventbrite, and you will be contacted should tickets become available.
- [CSER Public Lecture: Michael Osborne on Technology at Work](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/public-lecture-by-michael-osborne/) - Followers of CSER’s work may also be interested in a forthcoming public lecture by Michael Osborne (Engineering Science, Oxford). Michael will be giving a public lecture ‘Technology at Work: The Future of Innovation and Employment‘ on Tuesday 12th May 2015, 14.00 – 16.00 at CRASSH in Cambridge.  This is part of a series of lectures by
- [Stuart Russell Lecture Success](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stuart-russell-lecture-success/) - Thank you to all who attended the lecture given by Professor Stuart Russell at the Winstanley Lecture Theatre on Friday afternoon. The event was a great success with a full to capacity room and a clear and thought provoking presentation by Professor Russell. Â The weather was also kind to CSER, and combined with the beautiful
- [Meet the people out to stop humanity from destroying itself](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/meet-people-out-stop-humanity-destroying-itself/) - In 1942, one of Robert Oppenheimer’s colleagues came to him with a disturbing suggestion: in the event their work on the Manhattan Project succeeded and they built the world’s first atomic bomb, it was quite possible the explosion would set the skies on fire. Shaken, Oppenheimer privately told one of the project’s most senior figures,
- [Vatican presses politicians on climate change](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vatican-presses-politicians-climate-change/) - The Vatican Science Academy has challenged politicians to end their "infatuation" with a form of economic growth that is ruining the Earth. The academy said that nations were measuring their wealth by GDP (Gross Domestic Product), taking no account of the harm caused by business practises. It urged countries to act as stewards of God's
- [Human-level AI: Is It Looming or Illusory? - Professor Margaret Boden](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/human-level-ai-boden/) - Abstract: Human-level (“general”) AI is more difficult to achieve than most people think. One key obstacle is relevance, a conceptual version of the frame problem. Another is lack of the semantic web. Yet another is the difficulty of computer vision. So artificial general intelligence (AGI) isn’t on the horizon. Possibly, it may never be achieved. No
- [Russell and Ord lectures online](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/russell-and-ord-lectures-online/) - Our two recent public talks, by Stuart Russell (The Long-term Future of (artificial) Intelligence) and Toby Ord (Will We Cause Our Own Extinction?) are now online. They will be added to CSER’s own youtube channel shortly.
- [Margaret Boden public lecture: June 19th](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/margaret-boden-public-lecture-june-19th/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is delighted to host Professor Margaret Boden (Research Professor of Cognitive Science at the Department of Informatics, University of Sussex)Â for a public lecture on Friday 19th June 2015. The event is free and open to everyone, but due to expected demand, booking will be necessary. Book here.
- [Sean Holden on Radio 4's 'Front Row' this evening](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sean-holden-on-radio-4s-front-row-this-evening/) - CSER advisor Sean Holden (Senior Lecturer in Machine Learning at the University of Cambridge Computer Laboratory) will be speaking about Artificial Intelligence on tonight’s ‘Front Row’ on BBC Radio4.  The programme starts at 7.15pm. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qsq5
- [Professor Margaret Boden - Lecture Online](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/professor-margaret-boden-lecture-online/) - The recording of Professor Margaret Boden’s talk ‘Human-level AI: Is it looming or Illusory’ at CSER’s June seminar is now available online. We are grateful for the high level of interest in our seminars. Videos from all our events are available at the CSER Youtube Channel.
- [Keynote at ICABR Conference by Professor Partha Dasgupta](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/keynote-at-icabr-conference-by-professor-partha-da/) - Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta gave a keynote speech at the 19th ICABR Conference in Ravello recently, talking on ‘Food, Resources and Population’.  A summary of Professor Dagupta’s lecture by the Chair of the plenary session, Professor David Zilberman can be found here.
- [Climate Change: A Risk Assessment](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-change-a-risk-assessment/) - CSER’s Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta and Lord Martin Rees have both made expert contributions to a recently released risk assessment report on climate change. Commissioned by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and edited and produced by the Centre for Science and Policy (CSaP) at the University of Cambridge the report has been compiled as an independent contribution
- [The Vulnerability of Man](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-vulnerability-of-man/) - CSER’s Jaan Tallinn, Professor Sir John Beddington (Senior Advisor, Oxford Martin School & the UK Government’s former Chief Scientific Adviser) and Sir Crispin Tickell (former diplomat and advisor to successive UK Prime Ministers, who is regarded as the world’s foremost authority on climate change and environmental issues) speak to Vikas Shah at Thought Economics  on existential risk and the
- [How soon will robots take over the world?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-soon-will-robots-take-over-world/) - An explosion in artificial intelligence has sent us hurtling towards a post-human future, warns Martin Rees. In Davos a few years ago, I met a well-known Indian tycoon. Knowing I had the title Astronomer Royal, he asked: “Do you do the Queen’s horoscopes?” I responded, with a straight face: “If she wanted one, I’m the
- [Astronomer Royal: If we find aliens, they will be machines](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/astronomer-royal-if-we-find-aliens-they-will-be-ma/) - Prof Lord Rees told the Cheltenham Science Festival the first contact with aliens will be through robots. Alien contact is likely to come from machines living on other worlds outside of the solar system, the astronomer royal Martin Rees has said. Prof Lord Rees, 72, told the Cheltenham Science Festival ‘I’m not holding my breath’
- [What will happen to the humans when science fiction becomes fact?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/what-will-happen-humans-when-science-fiction-becom/) - A lack of oversight means that there are no controls over private firms. Are technology companies running too fast into the future and creating things that could potentially wreak havoc on humankind? That question has been swirling around in my head ever since I saw the enthralling science-fiction film Ex Machina. The movie offers a clever
- [Meet the Co-Founder of an Apocalypse Think Tank](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/meet-co-founder-apocalypse-think-tank/) - Martin Rees, astrophysicist and founding member of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk, talks differentiating sci-fi from real doomsday possibilities. This year the Doomsday Clock moved forward for the first time since 2012. The theoretical countdown to catastrophe was devised 67 years ago by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a watchdog group created
- [A Conversation on the Future of Intelligence - Panel](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/a-conversation-on-the-future-of-intelligence/) - Will our children share the planet with non-biological intelligences? What would that be like, and what can we learn from the non-human intelligences who already live around us? Philosopher Huw Price discusses these fascinating issues with Cambridge entrepreneur Hermann Hauser, Google DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis, and Girton psychologist Lucy Cheke. An event at the Cambridge
- [Pushing the Limits - Professor Jane Heal](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/pushing-the-limits/) - What do theory of evolution, intellectual history and philosophy tell us about what we human beings are like? And what resources – intellectual, emotional, moral – we can muster for dealing with the existential risks of our current situation? The talk will offer a speculative overview of these topics, which set the scene for
- [Four new positions at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/four-new-positions-at-the-centre-for-the-study-of/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is delighted to announce four new postdoctoral positions for the subprojects below, to begin in January 2016 or as soon as possible afterwards. The research associates will join a growing team of researchers developing a general methodology for the management of extreme technological risk. Evaluation of extreme
- [CSER Public lecture: Jane Heal on Pushing the Limits, November 20th](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/next-cser-lecture-jane-heal-pushing-the-limits-nov/) - The next CSER public lecture will take place on Friday November 20th at 5pm, and will be given by Professor Jane Heal (Philosophy, Cambridge). What do theory of evolution, intellectual history and philosophy tell us about what we human beings are like? And what resources – intellectual, emotional, moral – we can muster for dealing
- [The Future of Biotech Enterprise: Exponential Opportunities and Existential Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-future-of-biotech-enterprise-exponential-oppor/) - On Wendesday 2nd, CSER (Managing Extreme Technological Risks), Cambridge University Entrepreneurs and the Masters for Bioscience Enterprise are partnering to host “The Future of Biotech Enterprise: Exponential Opportunities and Existential Risksâ€. Speakers include CSER adviser Prof Chris Lowe, biotechnology investor Dmitry Kaminski and Prof Derek Smith, who spoke on gain-of-function influenza research at a CSER lecture
- [The Future of Biotech Enterprise: Exponential Opportunities and Existential Risks - Panel](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-future-of-biotech-enterprise/) - CSER, Cambridge University Entrepreneurs and the Masters for Bioscience Enterprise partnered to host “The Future of Biotech Enterprise: Exponential Opportunities and Existential Risksâ€. Speakers include CSER adviser Professor Chris Lowe, biotechnology investor Dmitry Kaminski and Professor Derek Smith, who spoke on gain-of-function influenza research at a CSER lecture earlier this year.
- [Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/leverhulme-centre-for-the-future-of-intelligence/) - CSER is delighted to announce that a new centre on the future of artificial intelligence will be established due to the generosity of the Leverhulme Foundation. The Centre proposal was developed at CSER and CRASSH, but will be a stand-alone centre, albeit collaborating extensively with CSER and with the Strategic AI Research Centre (an Oxford-Cambridge
- [Lucid AI Ethics Advisory Panel - Kay Firth-Butterfield](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/kay-firth-butterfield/) - Lucid is an AI company with an Ethics Advisory Panel which is led by Kay Firth-Butterfield. She will talk about the Panel’s composition and mandate and why the company thinks it is important. Also, she will discuss how the Panel ties to the aims of the Future of Intelligence/CSER and a very brief overview of
- [Planetary Vital Signs - Professors Charles Kennel & Stephen Briggs](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/professors-kennel-briggs/) - Abstract: Doesn’t the world need to look beyond global temperature to a set of planetary vital signs? When all indicators of change are fragile, you should not rely on one; you risk over-focusing policy on it. You look at a number different of ones and ask whether they all point in the same general direction.
- [NIPS 2015 - Algorithms Among Us Symposium](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nips-2015-algorithms-among-us-symposium/) - Algorithms Among Us: The Societal Impacts of Machine Learning Videos available below. Report here. Public interest in Machine Learning is mounting as the societal impacts of technologies derived from our community become evident. This symposium aims to turn the attention of Machine Learning researchers to the present and future consequences of our work, particularly in the
- [The Wilberforce Society 2016 Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/wilberforce/) - CSER co-sponsored and co-organised the 2016 Wilberforce Society Conference, which was on the subject of ‘Technology: Challenging and Changing the State?’ Read more on the 2016 Conference website. Schedule: 9:45 Welcome and registration 10:00 Session 1 – E-Democracy (?) 11:30 Short Break 11:40 Session 2 – Artificial Intelligence 13:10 Lunch Break 2:15 Session 3 – New
- [Responsible Research and Innovation in Synthetic Biology (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/rri-synbio/) - [More details soon.]
- [Murray Shanahan on the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/murray-shanahan-on-the-leverhulme-centre-for-the-f/) - Good interview with CSER advisor Murray Shanahan on AI and the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence. http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_5-1-2016-14-58-4
- [CSER events this week - all welcome!](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-seminar-series-event-this-friday-all-welcome/) - There are two great CSER-related events this week in Cambridge. On Friday: Kay Firth-Butterfield, who leads Lucid AI’s ethical advisory panel, will be speaking about safe and beneficial development of AI, and its relevance to global challenges, for CSER’s public lecture at 4pm at the Winstanley Lecture Theatre, Trinity College. A great opportunity to get
- [Blavatnik Public Lecture Series - Prof. Charles Kennel and Prof. Stephen Briggs](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-public-lecture-by-professor-charles-kennel/) - Date: 26 February Time: 16:00-18:00 Location: Seminar room, 1st floor, David Attenborough Building, Cambridge. Lecture Title: Planetary Vital Signs, Planetary Decisions, Planetary Intelligence. Book your ticket Abstract: Doesn’t the world need to look beyond global temperature to a set of planetary vital signs? When all indicators of change are fragile, you should not rely on one;
- [A distraction or an essential discussion? Confronting extreme environmental risks.](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/a-distraction-or-an-essential-discussion-confronti/) - An expert panel will explore different perspectives on risk in the face of uncertainties, unknowns, and the possibilities of extreme outcomes. This event is being co-hosted by the Cambridge Forum for Sustainability and the Environment (CFSE) and the Centre for Existential Risk (CSER). Click here for more information. Monday 7 March: 7:30pm – 8:30pm Mill Lane
- [CSER is co-organising: FUKUSHIMA - Five Years On](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-is-co-organising-fukushima-five-years-on/) - The 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Accident constitutes a technological accident, a humanitarian disaster, and the largest civil liability case in legal history. In light of a recent nuclear renaissance, ambitious energy transitions, and aiming to identify concrete policy recommendations regarding the prevention, mitigation, and compensation of future accidents, this international workshop critically addresses the legal challenges
- [Five-part series on the world beyond 2050](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/five-part-series-world-beyond-2050/) - For nearly 50 years, the image of the Earth, as seen by Apollo astronauts circling the moon, has been iconic among environmentalists. Suppose there were some aliens out there and they’d been watching our planet for its entire 4.5 billion year history. What would they have seen? Over nearly all that immense time, Earth’s appearance
- [A distraction or an essential discussion? Confronting extreme environmental risks - Panel](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/a-distraction-or-an-essential-discussion/) - An expert panel will explore different perspectives on risk in the face of uncertainties, unknowns, and the possibilities of extreme outcomes. This event is being co-hosted by the Cambridge Forum for Sustainability and the Environment (CFSE) and the Centre for Existential Risk (CSER). Click here for more information.
- [FUKUSHIMA – Five Years On (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/fukushima-five-years-on/) - The event comprised a public lecture on 4 March by Professor J. Mark Ramseyer (Harvard) entitled ‘Nuclear Power and the Mob: Extortion and Social Capital in Japan’, and a workshop on 5 March with a keynote speech entitled ‘The Law and Economics of Nuclear Risks’ by Professor Michael G. Faure (Maastricht). A seven page report on
- [DALI 2016 - Machine Learning and Society Symposium](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dali-2016/) - Data Learning and Inference 2016 Conference in Sestri Levante, Italy, from March 30 to April 1 2016. 9:30- 10:00 The Future of the Professions and the ‘AI Fallacy’ Daniel Susskind 10:00- 10:25 Why Autonomous Warfare is a Bad Idea Noel Sharkey [slides] 10:25- 10:50 The Landscape of AI Safety/Beneficence Research Richard Mallah [slides] 10:50- 11:15 How to
- [Partha Dasgupta Awarded Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/partha-dasgupta-awarded-tyler-prize-for-environmen/) - We are delighted to report that Partha Dasgupta, Frank Ramsey Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Cambridge, and Chair of CSER’s Management Committee and an intellectual lead within its projects, is this year’s recipient of the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement (http://tylerprize.usc.edu/). The award is in recognition of his contributions to the field
- [Podcast with Lord Martin Rees.](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/podcast-with-lord-martin-rees/) - TechEmergence conducted this interview with CSER co-founder Lord Martin Rees. “An Open-Minded Conversation May Be Our Best Bet for Survival in the 21st Century†– A Conversation with Lord Martin Rees.
- [CSER Lent Newsletter 2016](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-lent-newsletter-2016/) - CSER had another busy term. We now have a growing team of brilliant postdoctoral researchers from across a range of disciplinary backgrounds, including governance, law, biotechnology, mathematics, philosophy, physics and ecology, and are establishing collaborations within and outside Cambridge on our key risk areas. The team is already hard at work on high-impact research projects,
- [Livestream of the open lecture with Prof Paul Ehrlich.](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/livestream-of-the-open-lecture-with-prof-paul-ehrl/) - There will be a livestream of the open lecture at the Babbage Lecture Theatre with Prof Paul Ehrlich, starting at 16:00 today, 9 May 2016. To watch the livestream, please click on the image below. The video will be made available later on on our YouTube channel.
- [Open-Minded Conversation May Be Our Best Bet for Survival in the 21st Century](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/open-minded-conversation-may-be-our-best-bet-survi/) - Episode summary Few astrophysicists are as decorated as Martin Rees, Baron Rees of Ludlow, who was a primary contributor to the big-bang theory and named to the honorary position of UK’s astronomer royal in 1995. His work has explored the intersections of science and philosophy, as well as human beings’ contextual place in the universe.
- [Population, Environment, Extinction and Ethics - Professor Paul Ehrlich](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/professor-paul-ehrlich/) - Display content from YouTube Click here to display content from YouTube. Learn more in YouTube’s privacy policy. Always display content from YouTube Prof Ehrlich received early inspiration to study ecology. When in his high school years he read William Vogt’s Road to Surivival, an early study of the problem of rapid population growth and food
- [Rustat Conferences: Machine Superintelligence & Humanity (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/rustat-conferences-machine-superintelligence/) - Report by Nathan Brooker here. CSER co-organised and co-sponsored the event. 9.30-10.15: Professor Ian White Master, Jesus College; Van Eck Professor of Engineering, University of Cambridge; Chair, Rustat Conferences INTRODUCTION Chair: Professor Lord Martin Rees Co-Founder, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk; former Master, Trinity College, Cambridge; former President, Royal Society From Artificial Intelligence to
- [Rescheduled - Blavatnik Public Lecture, Hilary Greaves](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/blavatnik-public-lecture-hilary-greaves-new-date/) - We are delighted that Prof Hilary Greaves has agreed to reschedule her talk which was initially planned to take place on 29 April. The new date of the lecture is: 10 June 2016. The location and the time remain the same. Location: Hopkinson Lecture Theatre, 1st Floor, Phoenix Building, New Museums Site. Time: 4-5pm followed
- [Climate Justice & Disaster Law book launch](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-justice-disaster-law-book-launch/) - Climate disasters demand an integration of multilateral negotiations on climate change, disaster risk reduction, sustainable development, human rights and human security. Via detailed examination of recent law and policy initiatives from around the world, and making use of a Capability Approach, Rosemary Lyster develops a unique approach to human and non-human climate justice and its
- [Extinction Risk and Population Ethics - Professor Hilary Greaves](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/professor-hilary-greaves/) - Display content from YouTube Click here to display content from YouTube. Learn more in YouTube’s privacy policy. Always display content from YouTube Abstract. How important is it that we reduce the risk of human extinction? This depends sensitively on fundamental questions in moral theory. On the one hand, if humanity goes extinct prematurely, vast amounts
- [MAMI (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/mami/) - This workshop is part of the Hauser-Raspe Workshop Series. Details soon.
- [Thinking the Unthinkable – Nik Gowing, Chris Langdon and Sir Peter Gershon](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/thinking-the-unthinkable/) - A large and thoughtful audience joined our fascinating discussion with Nik Gowing, Chris Langdon and Sir Peter Gershon on Friday 5 August. The Thinking the Unthinkable report, and Nik and Chris’s excellent recent World Today article about their project, are both available for download at www.thinkunthinkable.org. Abstract: “Unthinkable” events since 2014 have revealed a new leadership
- [Climate Justice & Disaster Law - Professor Rosemary Lyster](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-justice-disaster/) - Climate disasters demand an integration of multilateral negotiations on climate change, disaster risk reduction, sustainable development, human rights and human security. Via a detailed examination of recent law and policy initiatives from around the world, and making use of a Capability Approach, Rosemary Lyster develops a unique approach to human and non-human climate justice and
- [Feeding Everyone No Matter What – Dr David Denkenberger](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/feeding-everyone-no-matter-what-2/) - Abstract A large asteroid or comet impact, super volcanic eruption, or full-scale nuclear war could cause a ~100% global agricultural shortfall. Together these have a probability ~10% this century. We have proposed solutions that could feed everyone without the sun, such as growing mushrooms on dead trees. Abrupt climate change, coincident extreme weather, a volcanic
- [CSER Blavatnik Public Lecture on The Rise of Data Religion by Professor Yuval Harari](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-public-lecture-on-the-rise-of-data-religion-b/) - A Blavatnik public lecture with Professor Yuval Harari on September 6, 2016. Response by Professor Andrew Briggs and panel discussion chaired by Lord Martin Rees. Abstract The most interesting place in the world from a religious perspective is not the Middle East, but rather Silicon Valley. That is where the new religions of the twenty-first century are being created. Particularly
- [CSER Blavatnik Public Lecture on Feeding Everyone No Matter What by Dr David Denkenberger](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/denkenberger-on-feeding-everyone-no-matter-what/) - CSER is pleased to welcome Dr David Denkenberger for this Blavatnik Public Lecture. 2 September 2016, 14:00 – 15:30 Room 1.25, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ Abstract A large asteroid or comet impact, super volcanic eruption, or full-scale nuclear war could cause a ~100% global agricultural shortfall. Together these have a probability
- [Thinking the Unthinkable](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/thinking-the-unthinkable-2/) - Thanks to the large and thoughtful audience who joined our fascinating discussion with Nik Gowing, Chris Langdon and Sir Peter Gershon on Friday 5 August. Please note that the Thinking the Unthinkable report, and Nik and Chris’s excellent recent World Today article about their project, are both available for download at www.thinkunthinkable.org.
- [The Anthropocene epoch could inaugurate even more marvellous eras of evolution](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/anthropocene-epoch-could-inaugurate-even-more-marv/) - The darkest prognosis is that bio, cyber or environmental catastrophes could foreclose humanity’s potential. But there is an optimistic option. On Christmas Eve 1968, the Apollo 8 astronaut William Anders took a photograph of the view outside the window as his spaceship orbited the moon. The now iconic Earthrise image shows our half-moon blue planet
- [The Rise of Data Religion - Professor Yuval Harari](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/harari/) - CSER public lecture with Professor Yuval Harari. Response by Professor Andrew Briggs and panel discussion chaired by Lord Martin Rees. Abstract. The most interesting place in the world from a religious perspective is not the Middle East, but rather Silicon Valley. That is where the new religions of the twenty-first centuryare being created. Particularly important is
- [Population Ethics: Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Birth and Death (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/population-ethics-workshop/) - In an ambitious program that presented the work of scholars from a wide variety of backgrounds considering very different aspects of population change the colloquium aimed to stimulate growth in new areas of interdisciplinary research towards solving the demographic challenges of our time. Presenters included: Dr Simon Beard, Dr Greg Bognar, Dr Elizabeth Cripps, Dr Luara
- [Data Analytics for Sustainability, the Environment and Risk (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/daser/) - This workshop is part of the Hauser-Raspe Workshop Series. A workshop to develop plans for a new research initiative on Data Analytics for Sustainability, the Environment and Risk (DASER). It brought together environmental scientists, machine learning engineers, businesses, and experts in policy and international development to discuss food/water security, infrastructure, natural capital and environmental risk. Read report
- [Partnership on AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/partnership-on-ai/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk strongly welcomes the recently announced partnership on AI to benefit people and society (current partners: DeepMind/Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM). Increasingly powerful AI systems are becoming used in an ever-wider range of real-world settings. This offers wonderful opportunities for helping us with many global challenges – for
- [Should We Rage, Rage Against the Dying of the Mites?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/should-we-rage-rage-against-dying-mites/) - Astronomers and philosophers both like big pictures, but they often have different measures in mind. Astronomers “go big” in space and time — philosophers do so in levels of abstraction from the mundane matters of everyday life. But when it comes to the question of the future of humanity, these dimensions coincide to a considerable
- [Sculpting evolution: engineering biology to address global disease challenges - Dr Kevin Esvelt](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sculpting-evolution/) - Biologists can now design genetic systems that engineer evolution in powerful ways with social, legal, ethical and environmental implications for our future. Mosquito populations can already be engineered using cutting edge techniques to drastically reduce their numbers or make them resistant to transmitting diseases like malaria, dengue or the emerging zika virus. Synthetic biologist Dr
- [Who actually controls public companies and in whose interest are they run? - Colin Melvin](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/who-actually-controls-public-companies-and-in-whos/) - Colin Melvin, the Global Head of Stewardship for Hermes Investment Management (the largest shareholder engagement company in the world) will discuss the role of institutional investors — pension funds, university endowments (such as the Cambridge University Endowment Fund), foundations, charities, and others — in influencing company behaviour regarding the environment, human rights, and other issues
- [Bringing States (and Science) to courts to address climate change: Grounds, opportunities and challenges - Pau de Vilchez Moragues](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bringing-states-and-science-to-courts-to-address-c/) - In the past two years, several lawsuits have been filed against governments around the world for their lack of an ambitious enough policy regarding climate change. In countries as different as the Netherlands, the US, Pakistan, Norway or New Zealand, citizens and NGOs are resorting to the judiciary to demand a more responsible climate policy
- [Technology: Transparency vs Privacy - Professor Neal Katyal](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/prof-neal-katyal/) - Abstract Professor Katyal, one of the top US Supreme Court advocates as well as the Paul Saunders Professor of National Security Law at Georgetown University, will contrast European and American approaches to data privacy, digital security, and transparency, with an eye on recent groundbreaking cases in the United States. He has represented most of the
- [Stakeholders for Sustainable Innovation (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/stakeholders-for-sustainable-innovation/) - On October 24th, 2016, CSER, the Global Shapers Cambridge Hub, and Positive+Investment co-hosted a workshop on the auto sector for investors, sector experts, academics, non-governmental actors, specialist lawyers, and others. The goal was to identify strategies to accelerate the inevitable transition to electric and alternative vehicles, with a particular focus on boosting companies’ research and development investments. The day
- [Personal Identity and Public Policy (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/personal-identity-and-public-policy-2/) - Technological change is creating possibilities for the future of ‘the person’ that are hard to evaluate using standard economic or legal procedures. These include: the possibility of the total loss of all persons and the possibility that human persons will be replaced with persons, or person-like entities, of other kinds such as enhanced members of other species
- [Regulatory, Legal and Ethical Issues in Gene Drive for Non-Human Population Control (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/gene-drives/) - Gene drives force a gene to spread through a population much more rapidly and to a greater extent than is predicted by standard evolutionary processes, even if it is lowers the fitness of the organism that carries it. This can be applied to replace or even eradicate populations and there is immediate interest in spreading
- [Horizon Scan for Emerging Issues in Bioengineering (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bioengineering-horizon-scanning/) - This horizon-scanning exercise focused on identifying new and emerging issues in bioengineering. Using a structured process of soliciting input from a diverse range of people with experience in various issues around bioengineering (e.g. from industry, policy and research perspectives), the exercise aimed to gain a better understanding of risks and opportunities in the field. The full
- [Lecture on Sculpting Evolution by Dr Kevin Esvelt](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sculpting-evolution-tomorrow-18th-october/) - Biologists can now design genetic systems that engineer evolution in powerful ways with social, legal, ethical and environmental implications for our future. Mosquito populations can already be engineered using cutting edge techniques to drastically reduce their numbers or make them resistant to transmitting diseases like malaria, dengue or the emerging zika virus. Synthetic biologist Dr
- [CSER autumn update](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-autumn-update/) - A quick update on our recent activities – it’s been a busy but remarkably successful year for us. 1) From our first postdoc starting in September of last year, we’ve built up to a team of eight postdocs from across fields. Our team now consists of Shahar Avin (currently working on a classification framework for
- [NIPS 2016 - Machine Learning and the Law Symposium](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nips-2016/) - Advances in AI mean that predictions and algorithms are already used in a wide variety of situations under regulatory or legal control. This includes such diverse areas as i.e. driving autonomous cars and predicting the likelihood of reoffending once released from prison. At this symposium, sponsored by LCFI, CSER and Clifford Chance, key themes such
- [Reliable Machine Learning in the Wild - NIPS 2016 Workshop](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reliable-machine-learning-wild-nips-2016-workshop/) - CSER co-sponsored the Reliable Machine Learning in the Wild workshop at NIPS 2016. NIPS is one of the four most important AI conferences globally. These regular workshops embed safety in the wider field, and provide a publication venue. The workshop featured 29 cutting-edge papers in AI safety, and encouraged leading AI researchers to publish on AI
- [Hawking on existential risk, inequality, and humility](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/hawking-on-existential-risk-inequality-and-humilit/) - For me, the really concerning aspect of this is that now, more than at any time in our history, our species needs to work together. We face awesome environmental challenges: climate change, food production, overpopulation, the decimation of other species, epidemic disease, acidification of the oceans. Together, they are a reminder that we are at
- [“Black Sky” Infrastructure and Societal Resilience (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/black-sky/) - “Black Sky” Infrastructure and Societal Resilience Workshop on Monday 16th January 2017 at The Royal Society, London. See all the presentations here. Workshop themes: Emerging Black Sky Hazards; Coordination Challenges and Implications; Infrastructure Interdependence and Resilience; Resilience, Systems, Risk and Perception; Resilience Learning and Perspectives; Infrastructure Decision-making, Stakeholder Engagement and Disaster Recovery Hosted by the International
- [Videos from our 2016 Conference now online](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/videos-from-our-2016-conference-now-online/) - Videos of the keynote lectures from the 2016 Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk are now available. Keynotes Claire Craig – Extreme risk management in the policy environment Rowan Douglas – Opening Session Part 2 Biorisk Jo Husbands – Lessons from Efforts to Mitigate the Risks of “Dual Use” Research Sam Weiss Evans – Words Of
- [Extreme Weather by Dr Emily Shuckburgh](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-weather-2/) - On Friday 20 January, Dr Emily Shuckburgh gave a talk on “Extreme Weather†as part of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. Dr Shuckburgh is a climate scientist and deputy head of the Polar Oceans Team at the British Antarctic Survey, which is focused on understanding the
- [Extreme Weather - Dr Emily Shuckburgh](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-weather/) - The talk “Extreme Weather†is held by Dr Emily Shuckburgh who is a climate scientist and deputy head of the Polar Oceans Team at the British Antarctic Survey, which is focused on understanding the role of the polar oceans in the global climate system. Follow this link for more information. The Darwin Lecture Series is co-convened
- [Is English as the lingua franca of research posing a risk?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/is-english-as-the-lingua-franca-of-research-posing/) - Picture: Keith Heppell Dr Tatsuya Amano, post-doc at CSER, was interviewed by Cambridge Independent on the issues of English being the lingua franca of research. “This one small aspect of the tension between the conservation of biodiversity and the challenge of food security helped to get him interested in the wider problem of the gaps
- [CSER at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-at-the-geneva-centre-for-security-policy/) - Picture: Petri Hakkarainen†The Geneva Centre for Security Policy held a two-day course on ‘Strategic Foresight and Existential Risks – Helping International Governance Respond to Global Catastrophic Risks’ on 19-20 January 2017. Participants included professionals from national departments, international organisations and think-tanks. CSER was represented by our Academic Project Manager Haydn Belfield, who presented on Science
- [Extreme Events and How to Live with Them - Professor Nicholas Taleb](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-events/) - The talk on “Extreme Events and How to Live with Them†is held by Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He will talk about how distributions that are dominated by extremes and tail events require a completely different way of thinking and provide a classification and show where conventional statistical tools fail, such as the conventional law
- [Dealing with Extremism - Professor David Runciman](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dealing-with-extremism/) -  On Friday 3 February, Professor David Runciman gave a talk on “Dealing with Extremism†the third of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. Professor Runciman argued that not all conspiracy theorists are extremists; but that almost all extremists are conspiracy theorists. The talk can be viewed on
- [What can x-risk learn from established fields?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/what-can-x-risk-learn-from-established-fields/) - Read more about our 2016 conference here and watch videos of keynotes here. by Beth Barnes The Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk brought together a wide range of academics from different disciplines relating to existential risk (x-risk) – from reinsurance to sustainable development to population ethics. I’m going to list some of the interesting lessons I
- [CSER at the Asilomar Beneficial AI 2017 Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-at-the-asilomar-beneficial-ai-2017-conference/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) was delighted to participate in the Beneficial Artificial Intelligence 2017 conference in Asilomar early in January. AI leaders came together to discuss opportunities and challenges related to the future of AI and steps we can take to ensure that the technology is beneficial. This was a sequel
- [Economist: The giant shoulders of English](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/economist-giant-shoulders-english/) - "Three scientists have raised an alarm about English-only science in a paper in PLOS Biology, a journal. Tatsuya Amano, Juan González-Varo and William Sutherland looked at fields where local knowledge matters, such as ecology and conservation. They found that 64.4% of papers on Google Scholar mentioning “conservation” or “biodiversity” were in English. The second most common
- [Extreme Events and How to Live with Them – Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-events-and-how-to-live-with-them-professor/) - On Friday 20 January, Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb gave a talk on “Extreme Events and How to Live with Them†the second of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. Professor Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and Antifragile)
- [Extreme Rowing - Roz Savage](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-rowing/) - On Friday 10 February, Roz Savage gave a talk on “Extreme Rowing†the fourth of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. The talk can be viewed on the Darwin College Lectures website. The ‘Extremes’ lecture series take place every Friday during Lent term (January to March). The lectures are given
- [Watching the doomsday clock together](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/watching-doomsday-clock-together/) - Catostrophes are likely to be more swift, global and devastating in our interconnected world, says Martin Rees, so scientists must join forces to keep us safe. The cover of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – founded in 1945 by Manhattan Project physicists troubled by the consequences of their work – depicts a clock. The closeness of
- [Wired UK article](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/wired-uk-article/) - Wired Front Cover The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is featured in a piece on existential risk in Wired UK, alongside the Future of Humanity Institute, the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, and the Centre for the Future of Intelligence. Wired UK Existential Risk article
- [Meet Earth’s Guardians, the real-world X-men and women saving us from existential threats](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/meet-earths-guardians-real-world-x-men-and-women-s/) - One wintry evening in November 2016, an international group of 50 scholars gathered at a candlelit dinner in the 14th-century Old Library at Pembroke College, Cambridge, to discuss grevious threats facing the world's civilisations. An eavesdropper in the shadows playing on the wood-panelled walls might have heard Shahar Avin, an Israeli software engineer and expert
- [Apocalypse, now? The 10 biggest threats facing civilisation, from asteroids to tyrannical leaders](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/apocalypse-now-10-biggest-threats-facing-civilisat/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk has outlined Earth's apocalyptic threats and how likely they are to happen in our lifetime. The team, made up of highly educated academics, lawyers, scholars and philosophers, form the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER, commonly referred to as "caesar") and the Leverhulme Centre for
- [Call for Papers and Responders: Risk, Uncertainty and Catastrophe Scenarios](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/call-for-papers-and-responders-risk-uncertainty-an/) - Call for Papers and Responders: Risk, Uncertainty and Catastrophe Scenarios Workshop on Climate Ethics and Climate Economics May 9th & 10th, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk Scholars have warned that there is an uncertain chance of runaway climate change that could devastate the planet. At least since Hans Jonas’s The Imperative of Responsibility,
- [Dealing with Extremism - Professor David Runciman](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dealing-with-extremism-professor-david-runciman/) - On Friday 3 February, Professor David Runciman gave a talk on “Dealing with Extremisim†the third of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. Professor Runciman argued that not all conspiracy theorists are extremists; but that almost all extremists are conspiracy theorists. The talk can be viewed on the Darwin
- [Extremes of the Universe – Professor Andy Fabian](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extremes-of-the-universe/) - Professor Andy Fabian will give a talk on “Extremes of the Universe†the fifth of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. The talk will be able to be viewed on the Darwin College Lectures website. The ‘Extremes’ lecture series take place every Friday during Lent term (January to March). The
- [Extreme Politics – Professor Matthew Goodwin](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-politics/) - Professor Matthew Goodwin will give a talk on “Extreme Politics†the sixth of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. The talk will be able to be viewed on the Darwin College Lectures website. The ‘Extremes’ lecture series take place every Friday during Lent term (January to March). The lectures are
- [Extreme Ageing – Professor Sarah Harper](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-aging/) - Professor Sarah Harper will give a talk on “Extreme Ageing†the seventh of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. The talk will be able to be viewed on the Darwin College Lectures website. The ‘Extremes’ lecture series take place every Friday during Lent term (January to March). The lectures
- [Reporting from Extreme Environments – Lyse Doucet](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reporting-from-extreme/) - Lyse Doucet will give a talk on “Reporting from Extreme Environments†the eight of the popular Darwin Lecture Series, which this year is co-convened by CSER Research Associate Julius Weitzdoerfer. The talk will be able to be viewed on the Darwin College Lectures website. The ‘Extremes’ lecture series take place every Friday during Lent term (January to March). The lectures are
- [Climate Change, Morphing into an Existential Threat – Professor Veerabhadran Ramanathan](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/veerabhadran-ramanathan/) - Video by the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series:  Professor Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences at the University of California, San Diego, will discuss the existential risks of climate change. This lecture is organised by the Centre for Science and Policy in partnership with Professor Charles Kennel, Christ’s College and the Centre for the Study of
- [Bad Actors and AI (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bad-actors-and-ai/) - On the 19th and 20th of February, the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) hosted a workshop on the potential risks posed by the malicious misuse of emerging technologies in machine learning and artificial intelligence. The workshop, co-chaired by Miles Brundage at FHI and Shahar Avin of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, invited
- [Biological Extinction (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biological-extinction/) - Workshop on Biological Extinction jointly sponsored by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences and held at the Vatican. The proceedings are available here. The Chair of our Management Committee, Sir Partha Dasgupta, was one of the organisers and presented on the workshop’s ‘Goals and Objectives’ and the ‘Summary and Conclusions’. He also
- [Envisioning and Addressing Adverse AI Outcomes (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/envisioning-and-addressing-adverse-ai-outcomes-inv/) - On the weekend of 24-26 February CSER executive director Seán Ó Heigeartaigh and researcher Shahar Avin participated and chaired sessions in the Origins workshop “Envisioning and Addressing Adverse AI Outcomes” hosted at Arizona State University. The workshop was organised by CSER co-founder Jaan Tallinn, Microsoft technical fellow and research managing director Eric Horvitz and Origins director
- [Bad Actors and AI - workshop](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bad-actors-and-ai-workshop/) - Photo credit: Future of Humanity Institute On the 19th and 20th of February, the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) hosted a workshop on the potential risks posed by the malicious misuse of emerging technologies in machine learning and artificial intelligence. The workshop, co-chaired by Miles Brundage at FHI and Shahar Avin of the Centre for
- [Biological Extinction Workshop at the Vatican](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biological-extinction-workshop-at-the-vatican/) - Sir Partha Dasgupta, Chair of CSER, is one of the organisers of the Vatican workshop on Biological Extinction. He is presenting on the workshop’s ‘Goals and Objectives’ and the ‘Summary and Conclusions’. He is also speaking about Why We Are in the Sixth Extinction and What It Means to Humanity, while our co-founder Lord Martin
- [Envisioning and Addressing Adverse AI Outcomes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/envisioning-and-addressing-adverse-ai-outcomes/) - On the weekend of 24-26 February CSER executive director Seán Ó Heigeartaigh and researcher Shahar Avin participated and chaired sessions in the Origins workshop “Envisioning and Addressing Adverse AI Outcomes†hosted at Arizona State University. The workshop was organised by CSER co-founder Jaan Tallinn, Microsoft technical fellow and research managing director Eric Horvitz and Origins director
- [At the Vatican, a call to avoid ‘biological extinction’](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vatican-call-avoid-biological-extinction/) - Experts in biodiversity and extinction are gathering at the Vatican this week to discuss biological extinction—and how to save the natural world on which we all depend. The conference focuses on the alarming signs, from various branches of science, that we are outstripping out planet's ability to sustain us. It follows on Pope Francis' 2015 encyclical, Laudato
- [Eighth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention: Where Next? (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bwc-conference/) - There are three versions of this report: [1.a] for audiences familiar with the Biological Weapons Convention; [1.b] with additional background material for those less familiar with the Biological Weapons Convention; and [1.c] a summary version. WORKSHOP REPORT v1a WORKSHOP REPORT v 1b WORKSHOP REPORT v 1c Led by Catherine Rhodes, Academic Project Manager at CSER,
- [Developing a Research Agenda and Methodologies for Extreme Bio-Risks (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/research-agenda-bio-risks/) - Led by Lalitha Sundaram, Research Associate on Bio-risk Analysis at CSER and Piers Millet, Senior Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) focuses on the understanding, management and mitigation of risks from emerging technologies and human activity, which threaten humanity’s survival, even if only with
- [Artificial Intelligence, Decision Theory, and Severe Uncertainty (Workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/artificial-intelligence-decision-theory-and-severe/) - On March 17, a workshop on artificial intelligence, decision theory and severe uncertainty was held at the University of Cambridge, with the following talks: Arif Ahmed (Cambridge) – Rationality and Future Discounting Richard Bradley (LSE) – Deciding with Confidence Catrin Campbell-Moore (Bristol) – Risk Avoidance Can’t be Accurate Huw Price and Yang Liu (Cambridge) – Heart
- [Responsibility and Inequality in a Risky World w/ Prof Heather Douglas](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/heather-douglas/) - This event was part of the Hauser-Raspe Visiting Expert Programme. We live in a world full of emerging risk. We generate new capacities with the potential to reorder our world and we discover new risks from old practices. What responsibilities come with doing this work? How should we manage the attendant risks? I will describe
- [Risk & the Culture of Science (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/risk-the-culture-of-science-invitation-only/) - This workshop was featured on the Naked Scientists podcast, as part of the show Can Science Mavericks Save the World? Read or listen here. Many scientists have expressed concern about potential catastrophic risks associated with powerful new technologies. But expressing concern is one thing, identifying serious candidates another. By definition, such risks will be novel, rare and difficult
- [Deep Learning:  Artificial Intelligence Meets Human Intelligence w/Prof Terrence Sejnowski](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/deep-learning-artificial-intelligence-meets-human/) - This event was part of the Hauser-Raspe Visiting Expert Programme. Deep learning is based on technical advances made by the neural network revolution in the 1980’s. Why did it take so long for neural networks to recognise speech and objects in images at human levels? What were the breakthroughs that made deep learning possible? Which industries will deep learning
- [Dr Simon Beard - a New Generation Thinker](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dr-simon-beard-a-new-generation-thinker/) - On the 16th of March 2017 the AHRC and BBC Radio 3 announced the ten academics at the start of their career whose research will be made into radio and television programmes for the BBC – the New Generation Thinkers. CSER is proud to announce that Dr Simon Beard, one of our philosophers, has been
- [Aeon: Let’s give out science funding by lottery](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/research-featured-on-aeon/) - Science funding is a gamble so let’s give out money by lottery Research by our postdoctoral Research Associate Shahar Avin was recently featured on Aeon. Aeon is a popular and well-respected digital magazine which publishes longform explorations of deep issues written by serious and creative thinkers. The Centre for the Study for Existential Risk is
- [New Research Affiliates](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-research-affiliates/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is happy to welcome six new Research Affiliates. This affiliation recognises the contribution they have made to the success of the Centre. We are proud to have them onboard! Research Affiliates Seth Baum Research Affiliate
- [CSER at Catastrophic And Existential Risk Colloquium](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-at-risk-colloquium/) - The UCLA’s Garrick Institute held its first colloquium on Catastrophic And Existential Risk from March 27-29, with the opening keynote being delivered by CSER’s Executive Director Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, and a lecture being given by CSER’s Catherine Rhodes. Ó hÉigeartaigh gave an overview of recent global progress in the field of existential risk, and presented
- [Climate Ethics and Climate Economics: Risk, Uncertainty and Catastrophe Scenarios (Invite only workshop)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-ethics-workshop/) - Scholars have warned that there is an uncertain chance of runaway climate change that could devastate the planet. At least since Hans Jonas’s The Imperative of Responsibility, some have argued that even low-probability existential risks should be treated in a fundamentally different way. How should we act when we believe that there is a chance
- [Overpopulation: A driver of climate change? w/ Prof Hilary Greaves](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/hilary-greaves/) - It is often remarked that the significant drivers of climate change include not only high and rising levels of fossil fuel use per person, but also high and rising human population size. The logic behind this remark appears at first sight to be simple: climate change is driven by emissions, and total emissions are equal
- [Collective awareness:  A vision of a new economics and how it could reduce risk w/Prof Doyne Farmer](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/collective-awareness-a-vision-of-a-new-economics-a/) - Science gives us a collective awareness that turns unknown unknowns into probabilities and helps us deal with risks and avoid catastrophic scenarios. It is worth distinguishing three levels of collective awareness, that involve understanding the external environment, our effect on the environment, and our collective effect on ourselves. This lecture will focus on the hardest of these
- [Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk and AI with Seth Baum](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/integrated-assessment-of-global-catastrophic-risk/) - This talk presents the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute’s (GCRI’s) flagship integrated assessment project, with emphasis on risk from artificial intelligence (AI). GCRI defines global catastrophic risk (GCR) as the risk of events large enough to significantly harm or even destroy human civilization at the global scale. Of particular interest are global catastrophes that could affect
- [CSER Quarterly Report April 2017](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-quarterly-report-april-2017/) - Read our Quarterly Report from April 2017 here: CSER Quarterly Report April 2017. Overview: We’ve had a busy Winter break and Lent term, in which we’ve: Hosted our first conference, the Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk (CCCR), which took place on December 12-14th at Clare College (http://cser.org/cccr2016/). Organised a series of workshops on artificial intelligence risk
- [Catherine Rhodes in the Bulletin: "Make the Biological Weapons Convention Work"](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/catherine-rhodes-in-the-bulletin-make-the-biologic/) - CSER’s Catherine Rhodes provides an analysis of the importance of effective implementation of the Biological Weapons Convention in this week’s Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: “At their best, international treaties are not static objects. Rather, they are dynamic processes. They productively engage state and non-state actors. They stay relevant to, and actively shape, their “piece” of the
- [28 June: Seminar with Seth Baum from GCRI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/28-june-seminar-with-seth-baum-from-gcri/) - On June 28, Research Affiliate Seth Baum, Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, gave a talk on the Institutes’ flagship integrated assessment project, with emphasis on risk from artificial intelligence (AI). Read more here The seminar took place from 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm atthe Alison Richard Building (ground floor), 7 West Road, Cambridge, CB3 9DT United Kingdom
- [Report from "Black Sky" Infrastructure and Societal Resilience workshop](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/2540-2/) - “Our power grids are becoming ever more crucial. Cities will be paralyzed without electricity, and the lights going out will be the least of the consequences… everything else that urban life depends on is vulnerable to breakdowns, errors, or even intentional sabotage of the system.” – Prof Martin Rees The report from the “Black Sky”
- [CSER team away-day](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-team-away-day/) - Research Associate Simon Beard presents to the team. The CSER team had a team ‘away-day’ on Monday 10th July to reflect on the previous year-and-a-half of operation and plan for the next year-and-a-half. We discussed what we do well and where we can improve; plans for several collaborative, interdisciplinary, papers; how to prioritise between the opportunities we have as
- [Decision Theory & the Future of Artificial Intelligence (registration required)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/decision-theory-the-future-of-artificial-intellige/) - There is increasing interest in the challenges of ensuring that the long-term development of artificial intelligence (AI) is safe and beneficial. Moreover, despite different perspectives, there is much common ground between mathematical and philosophical decision theory, on the one hand, and AI, on the other. The aim of this workshop – intended to be the
- [The Tragedy of the Uncommons:  On the Psychology, Politics and Policy of Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/the-tragedy-of-the-uncommons-on-the-psychology-pol/) - In this public lecture, Professor Jonathan B. Wiener, formulated a distinct type of problem: ‘the tragedy of the uncommons’, involving the misperception and mismanagement of rare catastrophic risks. The ‘tragedy of the commons’ is a classic type of problem, involving multiple actors who face individual incentives to deplete shared resources and thereby impose harms on
- [Health Emergencies, Resource Allocation and Individual Health Security](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/health-emergencies-resource-allocation-and-individ/) - Seminar presented by Jon Herington, co-hosted by the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and the Cambridge Infectious Diseases Interdisciplinary Research Centre Abstract: When faced with a health emergency (e.g. SARS, Ebola, natural disasters), health care workers must choose whether to allocate resources to interventions which prioritize the emergency, at the expense of interventions
- [CSER at Effective Altruism Global 2017](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-at-effective-altruism-global-2017/) - Our Academic Project Manager Haydn Belfield led a workshop at Effective Altruism Global 2017 in San Francisco. The workshop was an interactive table-top scenario exercise exploring the international community’s potential response to a viral outbreak. While in the Bay he also met with collaborators at University of California, Berkeley and Stanford University. The conference was attended by over 600
- [Nukes of Hazard: Mapping the Risks Emerging Technologies Pose to Nuclear Weapons Modernization](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nukes-of-hazard-mapping-the-risks-emerging-technol/) - Despite President Trump’s claims that his first order was “to renovate and modernize” the US nuclear arsenal, efforts at nuclear modernization began in 2014 under former President Barack Obama. The plan is expected to cost upwards of $1 trillion dollars over the life cycle of the new systems, with $400 billion of that spent through
- [Workshop featured on The Naked Scientists podcast](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/workshop-featured-on-the-naked-scientists-podcast/) - CSER’s April workshop on Risk & the Culture of Science was featured on a podcast from the Naked Scientists. The workshop explored how to study and address global catastrophic risk within current scientific structures. It was part of the show Can Science Mavericks Save the World? Read or listen here.
- [When The World Didn't End](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/when-the-world-didnt-end/) - Simon Beard has a feature in the upcoming October 2017 edition of the BBC History Magazine on historical cases in which humanity narrowly avoided a global catastrophe, mainly due to nuclear war. He also wrote a blog post for our parent organisation, CRAASH – Less Hollywood, More Car Crash: Putting the USA vs. DPRK nuclear stand-off into historical perspective.
- [Summer visitors](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/summer-visitors/) - Over the summer CSER has welcomed a number of interns and visitors who are pursuing independent projects. The following videos highlight the work of three visitors who were supervised by CSER Research Associate Simon Beard. Natalie Jones is a PhD student in the Law Department at the University of Cambridge. In 2017 she had, in collaboration
- [Should We Care About The Worst-Case Scenario When It Comes To Climate Change?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/should-we-care-about-the-worst-case-scenario-when/) - Dr Simon Beard has written an article on the Huffington Post answering the question “Should We Care About the Worst-Case Scenario When it Comes to Climate Change?” This piece draws on themes from an ESRC funded workshop on Risk, Uncertainty and Catastrophe Scenarios convened by Simon and Dr Kai Spiekerman. The report from the workshop can
- [Global Catastrophic Risks 2017](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/global-catastrophic-risks-2017-2/) - Global Catastrophic Risks 2017 is an annual analysis of the greatest threats to humanity produced by the Global Challenges Foundation. It is based on the latest scientific research and features contributions from leading experts at think tanks, university departments and other institutions worldwide. As well as exploring the risks themselves, it summarizes the current status
- [Tatsuya Amano lecture at Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/tatsuya-amano-lecture/) - Dr Tatsuya Amano gave an Open Seminar at Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology's Institute of Global Innovation Research on How can science contribute to global biodiversity conservation? Tackling gaps in information use.
- [Shahar Avin on NonProphets podcast](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/shahar-avin-on-nonprophets-podcast/) - In this episode (recorded 9/27/17), the superforecasters of the NonProphets podcast interview CSER’s Dr. Shahar Avin. They discuss the prospects for the development of artificial general intelligence; why general intelligence might be harder to control than narrow intelligence; how we can forecast the development of new, unprecedented technologies; what the greatest threats to human survival are; the “value-alignment problem”
- [New Public Lecture Video - Dr Heather Roff](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-public-lecture-video-dr-heather-roff/) - Dr Heather Roff – Nukes of Hazard: Mapping the Relative Risks Emerging Technologies Pose to Nuclear Weapons Systems Dr Roff, Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford, discusses the risks the emerging technologies of artificial intelligence and automation pose to nuclear modernisation.
- [Catherine Rhodes at GoCAS Existential risks workshop](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/catherine-rhodes-at-gocas-existential-risks-worksh/) - Academic Project Manager Dr Catherine Rhodes spoke at a public workshop held on September 7-8 as part of the ongoing GoCAS guest researcher program on existential risk. Other videos can be seen here.
- [Lord Rees and Dr Weitzdörfer in Japan](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lord-rees-and-dr-weitzdorfer-japan/) - Lord Martin Rees and Dr Julius Weitzdörfer attended the 14th Annual Meeting of the Science and Technology in Society forum (STS forum) in Kyoto, Japan. STS forum, a non-profit organization established in 2004, aims to provide a platform for world leaders in the fields of policy making, academia and industries to gather and discuss how to deal
- [X-Risks and Human Destiny](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/x-risks-and-human-destiny/) - "In the face of threats to our continued ability to exist on the earth, Britain’s Astronomer Royal discusses not only the risks but also some of the alternatives that scientists are currently exploring. At Cambridge University’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), Martin Rees and his colleagues are concerned with the multiple risks that
- [Podcast: The Countdown to Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/podcast-countdown-artificial-intelligence/) - What is artificial intelligence, or AI? Will it take my job? Is it dangerous? The Naked Scientists talk to Peter Clarke, Henry Shevlin, Simon Beard and Hitesh Sanganee to discuss the most important questions we should be asking about AI and its impact on industry, humanity and philosophy...
- [Does science need mavericks?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/does-science-need-mavericks/) - "Staid and conformist, science risks losing its creative spark. Does it need more mavericks, or are they part of the problem? At the end of his life, the English naturalist Charles Darwin became intrigued by the musicality of worms. In the last book he ever wrote, in 1881, he describes a series of experiments on
- [Podcast with iGEM team](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/podcast-igem-team/) - Incell is a Danish team at iGEM 2017. In this podcast episode on Biosafety, team members Sissel and Jon spoke to Catherine Rhodes at EUSynBioS (from 12mins20secs).
- [Lords AI Committee Written Evidence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lords-ai-committee-written-evidence/) - Dr Simon Beard submitted Written Evidence to the United Kingdom's House of Lords Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence. This response was written with additional input from Dr Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Dr Shahar Avin and Haydn Belfield of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), Martina Kunz at the Centre for the Future of Intelligence
- [Contribute to an existential risk bibliography](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/contribute-existential-risk-bibliography/) - Contribute to an existential risk bibliography and semi-automated system for finding publications. The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA) is a project led by CSER Research Associate Gorm Shackelford. The problem: an overwhelming volume of researchAn overwhelming volume of research has been published, and more is being published all the time. It is taking an increasingly long
- [CSER supports new All Party Parliamentary Group](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-supports-new-appg/) - The APPG for Future Generations team. L to R: Beth Barnes, Natalie Jones, Lord Martin Rees, Tildy Stokes, Simon Beard, Julius Weitzdörfer, Mark O'Brien The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) has supported the formation of a new All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for Future Generations in the UK Parliament, and will provide
- [Synthese Special Issue “Decision Theory and the Future of Artificial Intelligence”](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/synthese-special-issue-decision-theory-and-future/) - Special Issue Description: There is increasing interest in the challenges of ensuring that the long-term development of artificial intelligence (AI) is safe and beneficial. Moreover, despite different perspectives, there is much common ground between mathematical and philosophical decision theory, on the one hand, and AI, on the other. The aim of the special issue is to
- [Arkhipov Family awarded Future of Life Award](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/arkhipov-family-awarded-future-life-award/) - On October 27, 1962, a soft-spoken naval officer named Vasili Arkhipov single-handedly prevented nuclear war during the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Arkhipov's submarine captain, thinking their submarine was under attack by American forces, wanted to launch a nuclear weapon at the ships above. Arkhipov, with the power of veto, said no, averting nuclear war. On October 27,
- [New Public Lecture video - Max Tegmark](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-video-max-tegmark/) - There’s been much talk about AI disrupting the job market and enabling new weapons, but very few scientists talk seriously about the elephant in the room: what will happen once machines outsmart us at all tasks? Max Tegmark is an MIT professor, CSER Advisor, President of the Future of Life Institute, and author of “Life
- [Partha Dasgupta at Vatican Climate Change workshop](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/partha-dasgupta-vatican-climate-change-workshop/) - The Chair of our Management Committee, Sir Partha Dasgupta, helped co-organise a workshop at the Vatican on Health of People, Health of Planet and Our Responsibility: Climate Change, Air Pollution and Health. The Workshop Declaration says: "With unchecked climate change and air pollution, the very fabric of life on Earth, including that of humans, is at grave
- [AI & Society Symposium](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ai-society-symposium/) - On October 10th and 11th 2017, hundreds of individuals from Japan and the rest of the world attended the AI & Society Symposium at the iconic Toranomon Hills building in Tokyo, Japan. The event was hosted by the Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Research Center of the University of Tokyo, with an impressive list of partners
- [Will the human species survive the 21st century?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/will-human-species-survive-21st-century/) - (Translated from the original Spanish) BBVA, through the OpenMind initiative, and EL PERIÓDICO present a day on the main challenges faced by the human species in this 21st century, derived from the impact of digital transformation and technological advances in our environment. The session will welcome the intervention of Seán Ó HÉigeartaigh, executive director of the
- [CSER and IIASA](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-and-iiasa/) - On October 18th and 19th 2017, Shahar Avin, Simon Beard and Julius Weitzdörfer from CSER, together with Rosamund Almond from the Forum for Sustainability and the Environment visited the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Vienna. IIASA is an international research organization established via agreements between 24 national scientific bodies. CSER were invited
- [Humanity is (still) at risk of extinction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/humanity-still-risk-extinction/) - (Translated from the original Spanish) Humanity being extinguished or suffering a great collapse in the 21st century is a real risk. The probability is small, of course, but it exists. So it's best to work to reduce risks, says Seán Ó HÉigeartaigh , executive director of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. Ó
- [Dr Adrian Currie won the Editor's Choice Award](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dr-adrian-currie-won-editors-choice-award/) - Editor's Choice Award CSER's Dr Adrian Currie just published a paper in the British Journal for the Philosophy of Science which recieved this issue’s Editor’s Choice award, and so is open access. Congratulations to Adrian! ABSTRACT Our epistemic access to the past is infamously patchy: historical information degrades and disappears and bygone eras are often
- [Will AI Help to Build A Fairer World? The Answer Is In Our Hands](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/will-ai-help-build-fairer-world-answer-our-hands/) - Decisions that affect us are increasingly being made by artificial intelligence (AI). From automated trading algorithms to precision manufacturing, AI is responsible for more and more of the things we thought only humans could do – and this is having a profound effect on our world. Our awareness of such effects focuses on early adopters
- [New Video: Existential Risk Overview](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-video-existential-risk-overview/) - Of the 45 million centuries of the Earth’s history, this one is very special. It is the first century that one species – us – hold the future of the planet in our hands. Take a fast-paced tour through our work on biological risks, environmental risks, artificial intelligence risks and more with the Astronomer Royal, Lord
- [Welcoming new UK AI Centre](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/welcoming-new-uk-ai-centre/) - The UK Autumn Budget 2017 announced: “The government will create a new Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation to enable and ensure safe, ethical and ground-breaking innovation in AI and data driven technologies. This world-first advisory body will work with government, regulators and industry to lay the foundations for AI adoption” Stephen Cave, Executive Director of our
- [Effective Altruism Global London](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/effective-altruism-global-london/) - Effective Altruism Global London is a major conference of the Effective Altruism community, attended by hundreds of people. Academic Project Manager Haydn Belfield led a workshop and Research Associate Dr Shahar Avin gave a talk. At the conference they also encouraged dozens of students and early career researchers to work on existential risk.
- [Meat, Monkeys, and Mosquitoes: A One Health Perspective on Emerging Diseases](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/meat-monkeys-and-mosquitoes-a-one-health-perspecti/) - Agriculture is the foundation of civilization. Food security from agriculture enabled the growth of cities; cities led to nations, and nations discovered the science and technology that allowed our numbers to grow. But agriculture comes with costs including deforestation, environmental destruction, and emerging diseases. Meeting the growing world population’s demand for food, especially meat, while
- [Nuclear “Error and Terror” Response and Recovery Policies Workshop (Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nuclear-error-and-terror/) - Objective: To exchange knowledge between policymakers and experts, including from the University of Cambridge (CSER) and DEFRA’s Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Recovery Programme, on challenges of and solutions to response and recovery following a deliberate or accidental release of radiological and nuclear material. For such scenarios of nuclear “error and terror”, we will
- [New horizon-scan paper for synthetic biology and bioengineering](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-horizon-scan-paper/) - Human genome editing, 3D-printed replacement organs and artificial photosynthesis – the field of bioengineering offers great promise for tackling the major challenges that face our society. But as a new paper highlights, these developments provide both opportunities and risks in the short and long term. Rapid developments in the field of synthetic biology and its
- [BBC Inside Science interview](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-inside-science-interview/) - On BBC Inside Science, Dr Adam Rutherford interviews Dr Jenny Molloy about our new bioengineering horizon-scan paper: "What does the future hold for synthetic biology? Who will be the practitioners of this fast-growing branch of bioengineering and what will be its impact on the world - for good and possibly ill? Experts in the field have just
- [Bringing Existential Risk Home](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bringing-existential-risk-home/)
- [Should We Be Worried About GMOs?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/quillette-should-we-be-worried-about-gmos/) - "After shaping life on earth for billions of years, evolution via natural selection is in decline and being replaced by intelligent design. For the last 12,000 years, the survival of species has been primarily determined by their usefulness, and vulnerability, to human beings. Now, finally, we have found a way to do away with even
- [Does AI Present the Potential to Mitigate Resource Scarcity?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/does-ai-present-potential-mitigate-resource-scarci/) - Andrew Ware worked with Dr Simon Beard over the summer on a project looking at applying AI to resource scarcity. "As any undergraduate textbook will tell you, “economics is the study of how society allocates scarce resources.” However, this age-old problem is increasingly being seen as less of an issue about markets, state plans, and economic
- [Audio: Biological Weapons Convention Press Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bwc-press-conference/) - At a press conference for the Meeting of States Parties to the Biological Weapons Convention Dr Lalitha Sundaram spoke alongside: Ambassador Amandeep Gill, Permanent Representative of India to the Conference on Disarmament, Chair of the 2017 BWC Meeting of States Parties Tom Inglesby, Director of the Center for Health Security of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg
- [How close are we to states giving up their nuclear weapons? Not very](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-close-are-we-states-giving-their-nuclear-weapo/) - Executive Director Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh was quoted in a piece by Wired. "There has been tremendous global progress on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation since the end of the Cold War, aided by the excellent work of ICAN and others," says Dr Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, executive director of Cambridge University's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
- [Laura Kahn - Meat, Monkeys, and Mosquitoes: A One Health Perspective on Emerging Diseases​](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/laura-kahn-meat-monkeys-and-mosquitoes-one-health/) - Please enjoy our latest public lecture featuring Laura Kahn speaking on 'Meat, Monkeys, and Mosquitos: A One Health Perspective. Abstract Agriculture is the foundation of civilization. Food security from agriculture enabled the growth of cities; cities led to nations, and nations discovered the science and technology that allowed our numbers to grow. But agriculture comes
- [Climate Change and the Worst-Case Scenario](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-change-and-worst-case-scenario/) - An article in the IPPR Progressive Review, a journal of the Institute for Public Policy Research - the UK's leading progressive think tank. "How much should we care about something that is 'probably not going to happen'? After a year of unprecedented meteorological extremes, the impacts of climate-induced catastrophes are finally getting some attention. The number
- [Nature paper: Successful conservation of global waterbird populations depends on effective governance](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nature-paper-successful-conservation/) - Political instability and weak governance lead to loss of species, study finds A big data study of global biodiversity shows ineffective national governance is a better indicator of species decline than any other measure of “anthropogenic impact”. Even protected conservation areas make little difference in countries that struggle with socio-political stability. "We now know that
- [Civilization V video game mod: Superintelligent AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/civilization-v-video-game-mod-superintelligent-ai/) - Researchers from the University of Cambridge's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) have released a mod for Civilization V that introduces superintelligent AI into the popular video game. In the modified game, artificial intelligence initially provides benefits, and eventually can turn into superintelligence that brings mastery of science to its discoverer. However, if there is too little investment
- [Proceedings from Garrick Colloquium on Catastrophic and Existential Risk published](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/proceedings-garrick-colloquium-catastrophic-and-ex/) - The Proceedings from the first Garrick Colloquium on Catastrophic and Existential Risk (sponsored by the B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences) have been published, featuring papers from: - Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh (The opening keynote, on The State of Research in Existential Risk) - Catherine Rhodes (Risks and Risk Management in Systems of International Governance)
- [Nuclear Error & Terror Workshop](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nuclear-error-terror-workshop/) - On the 1st of December, we hosted a workshop on Nuclear “Error and Terror” Response and Recovery Policies with DEFRA’s Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Recovery Programme. It addressed challenges of and solutions to response and recovery following a deliberate or accidental release of radiological and nuclear material. The workshop report will be published soon
- [Coverage of Nature paper on biodiversity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/coverage-nature-paper-biodiversity/) - Our major new paper on biodiversity published in Nature - Successful conservation of global waterbird populations depends on effective governance - has recieved media coverage around the world including: Le Monde - L’instabilité politique aggrave le déclin de la biodiversité ABC - Los Gobiernos influyen más que el cambio climático en la pérdida de biodiversidad Mongabay - Waterbirds
- [Best Paper Award - An AI Race: Rhetoric and Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/best-paper-award-ai-race-rhetoric-risks/) - A joint paper by the Executive Directors of CSER and CFI, An AI Race: Rhetoric and Risks, has won Best Paper Award at the AAAI/ACM conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society. The award is sponsored by the Partnership on AI, an organisation that brings together the world's leading AI firms. The rhetoric of the race
- [Bio-engineering horizon-scan podcast](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bio-engineering-horizon-scan-podcast/) - Christian R. Boehm discussed our horizon-scanning paper that identified 20 emerging issues in biological engineering on the January episode of the eLife podcast.
- [Letter responding to New Scientist Editorial: the fate of civilisation is in our hands](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-scientist-editorial/) - Our letter in response to being mentioned in a New Scientist Editorial on existential risk 'The fate of civilisation is in our hands': "The study of existential risk even has its own centre at the University of Cambridge. You don’t have to believe in the four horsemen to see the apocalypse coming." "There seems little reason to
- [Geoengineering Is A Very, Very Bad Idea – But Here’s Why We May Have To Do It Anyway](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/geoengineering-very-very-bad-idea/) - Let’s just make sure we stop climate change while we are still the main thing causing it "So, geoengineering is a very, very, very, very, very bad idea. It should form no part of any sensible strategy to mitigate the expected effects of climate change. However hard it might be, cutting our greenhouse gas emissions is
- [Comment on Doomsday Clock at 2 Minutes to Midnight](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/comment-doomsday-clock-2-minutes-midnight/) - The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has changed the Doomsday Clock to 2 minutes to midnight, the closest it has been since 1953. Several risks from technology or man-made activity could credibly lead to civilizational collapse or human extinction. Nuclear weapons, climate change and pandemics remain key threats. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and biotechnologies
- [Cambridge Students Join Forces with MPs to Launch APPG Combating Political Short-Termism](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cambridge-students-join-forces-mps-launch-appg-com/) - Parliamentarians, academics and industry leaders launched the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations on Monday, 22 January 2018 in Parliament. The All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG), created by Cambridge students in October 2017 and chaired by Daniel Zeichner MP, aims to challenge political short-termism and raise the profile of the long-term interests of future generations. Seventeen other
- [Welcoming UK leadership on deploying AI safely and ethically](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/welcoming-uk-leadership-deploying-ai-safely-and-et/) - At the World Economic Forum in Davos today, UK Prime Minister Theresa May said she wants the UK to lead the world in deciding how artificial intelligence can be deployed in a safe and ethical manner. “We are just at the beginning of what AI can achieve”, she said, adding that as it develops, we
- [Scientific Governance at the Ground Level Workshop (Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/scientific-governance-ground-level/) - This workshop considers two related questions about the governance of emerging technologies. First, what challenges, limitations, pitfalls and successes emerge from current efforts? Second, how might those challenges be overcome or mitigated, perhaps with alternative models of governance? It has become more-or-less accepted wisdom – at least in the academic circles of the philosophy, social
- [How to (Re)Use Big Data w/Prof Sabina Leonelli](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/how-reuse-big-data-wprof-sabina-leonelli/) - Big data bring great opportunities for both understanding the complex world we live in and making our lives better—but they are also ripe for misuse. In many areas of science increasingly powerful technologies allow researchers to generate a whole lot of data, which are then disseminated via digital databases. Having heaps of data available online
- [Verge: The Doomsday Clock is the gimmick we need](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/verge-doomsday-clock-gimmick-we-need/) - Our Executive Director Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh was quoted in a story on the Doomsday Clock. Scientifically calculating the risk of human extinction from the cornucopia of possible catastrophes can be a challenge, says Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, executive director at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. “We’re talking about either very rare events, or
- [ZME Science: Ignorance is more deadly than evil, despite what blockbusters show](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/zme-science-ignorance-more-deadly-evil-despite-wha/) - ZME Science has covered a paper from our forthcoming Special Issue of the journal Futures. This Special Issue draws on papers and talks given at our 2016 Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk (CCCR). The paper is Existential risk due to ecosystem collapse: Nature strikes back by Peter Kareiva and Valerie Carranza. It draws on a talk on Avoiding Species
- [To Save Generations Of Tomorrow, We Need To Change Political Decision-making Today](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/save-generations-tomorrow-we-need-change-political/) - The students of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations discussed their launch in an article for Huffington Post: "Who is advocating for the human rights of children of the 22nd century? Who is there to represent the interests of ‘generations not yet born’? That’s why we recently mobilized academics, industry leaders, MPs and Peers
- [Financial Times podcast: Martin Rees on saving the planet](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/financial-times-podcast-martin-rees-saving-planet/) - For the FT podcast 'Tech Tonic' the innovation editor at the Financial Times, John Thornhill, talks to CSER co-founder Martin Rees about why he thinks we need to pay greater attention to the risks posed by environmental damage and the rapid adoption of new technologies. It can be listened to here and here.
- [Martin Rees Video interview with Vision](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vision-presents-conversation-martin-rees/) - Vision publisher David Hulme sat down with CSER co-founder Martin Rees for an in-depth interview on existential risk.
- [The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/malicious-use-artificial-intelligence-2/) - 26 experts on the security implications of emerging technologies have jointly authored a ground-breaking report – sounding the alarm about the potential malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI) by rogue states, criminals, and terrorists. Forecasting rapid growth in cybercrime and the misuse of drones during the next decade – as well as an unprecedented rise
- [Research Horizons](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/research-horizons/) - Issue 35 of the University of Cambridge's research magazine Research Horizons highlighted CSER and our sister organisation the Centre for the Future of Intelligence (CFI), including: Living with AI by Prof. Huw Price & CFI's Dr Karina Vold. The uncertain unicycle that taught itself, highlighting our collaborators Prof. Zoubin Ghahramani and Dr Emily Shuckburgh. Robots
- [CSER signs MoU with Kyoto University's GSAIS](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-signs-mou-gsais/) - From left: Dr Weitzdörfer, Professor Yamashiki, and Astronomer Royal Martin Rees On 19 January, the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) signed a memorandum of understanding on an academic partnership with Kyoto University's Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability (GSAIS, or "Shishu-Kan"). Our main collaborators at Kyoto to date have included Director of
- [National crises, viewed in the light of personal crises w/ Prof Jared Diamond](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/national-crises-viewed-light-personal-crises-w-pro/) - This event is being jointly run with the Cambridge Conservation Initiative (CCI). Nations experience crises, whose solution requires adopting selective changes, and which some nations are more successful at solving than are other nations. We as individuals also experience personal crises, either associated with certain ages (e.g., teenage or midlife crises) or else triggered by external
- [Modelling Societal Collapse Workshop (Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/modelling-societal-collapse/) - This event is being jointly run with the Cambridge Conservation Initiative (CCI). Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina begins: “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” This invite-only workshop explores whether it’s possible to compare societal collapses and build predictive models, or whether each collapse is “unhappy in its own way”. This
- [New Paper: Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-paper-classifying-global-catastrophic-risks/) - Highlights Classifying global catastrophic risks according to critical system affected, global spread mechanism, and prevention and mitigation failure, provides a novel means of framing risks. By concentrating on component factors that contribute to catastrophic risks, the classification system highlights convergent risk factors that merit prioritisation and also uncovers potential knowledge gaps. The classification system can
- [Simon Beard explores the 'overpopulation' debate](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/simon-beard-explores-overpopulation-debate/) - The stats make for sobering reading: global population is set to hit 10 billion by the year 2050. Given the ever-increasing pressure on resources and the natural world, is it time to consider our personal responsibility when it comes to slowing the spread of humanity? As BBC Radio 3's Free Thinking Festival prepares to debate the uncomfortable
- [We're hiring!](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/were-hiring-horizon-scan/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) is advertising a 9 month Postdoctoral Research Associate position on 'Horizon-Scanning and Foresight for Extreme Technological Risks' in our Managing Extreme Technological Risks programme (funded by the Templeton World Charity Foundation). Work will include developing and refining our web-based register of extreme technological risk ( http://www.x-risk.net ),
- [Note on Stephen Hawking](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/note-stephen-hawking/) - All at CSER are saddened to hear of the passing of Stephen Hawking. We are hugely grateful for the support Stephen provided to establish CSER and get us off the ground between 2011 and 2015, and his continued service on our scientific advisory board. He will always be an inspiration forus, not just for his scientific work, but for his efforts to bring attention to the challenges of climate change, artificial intelligence, biodiversity
- [Talk to Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/talk-chemical-weapons-convention/) - Dr Bonnie Wintle and Dr Christian Boehm were invited to present our recent paper on horizon scanning for emerging issues in biological engineering to the Scientific Advisory Board of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in the Hague. This follows Dr Lalitha Sundaram presenting this paper at the Biological Weapons Convention in December 2017.
- [Telegraph: Four meals from anarchy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/telegraph-four-meals-anarchy/) - Dr Julius Weitzdörfer was quoted in a Telegraph article on our 'Black Sky' research: - British cities would be uninhabitable within days and the country is only a few meals from anarchy if the National Grid was taken down in a cyber attack or solar storm, disaster and security experts have warned. [...] “I think
- [Free Thinking Essay: What Do You Do If You Are a Manically Depressed Robot?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/free-thinking-essay/) - New Generation Thinker Simon Beard, from the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, looks at AI and what the writing of Douglas Adams tells us about questions of morality and who should be in control. This year is the 40th anniversary of BBC Radio 4’s Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. New Generation Thinkers is
- [Biosafety in a World Without Walls](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biosafety-world-without-walls/) - (Co-organised by the Synthetic Biology SRI and Centre for the Study of Existential Risk) Dr. Todd Kuiken is a Senior Research Scholar at the Genetic Engineering & Society Center at North Carolina State University. Prior to that, he was a Senior Program Associate with the Science and Technology Innovation Program at the Wilson Center where
- [Book Launch: Rock, Bone and Ruin: An Optimist’s Guide to the Historical Sciences](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/book-launch-rock-bone-and-ruin/) - The “historical sciences”—geology, paleontology, and archaeology—have made extraordinary progress in advancing our understanding of the deep past. How has this been possible, given that the evidence they have to work with offers mere traces of the past? At the book launch light refreshments will be provided, and the book will be available for a heavily
- [Naked Scientists - Planet B: Should we leave Earth?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/naked-scientists-planet-b/) - The Naked Scientists episode Planet B: Can We Colonise Space? went out on BBC 5 Live and BBC Cambridge at the weekend. The show will go out in Australia on Friday and the podcast is now live and available to be listened to. In this episode of the weekly show, presenter Izzie Clarke asks 'Is there a Planet B?',
- [Book Launch: Rock, Bone and Ruin](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/book-launch-rock-bone-and-ruin-2/) - On 10 May 2018 Adrian Currie launched his new book Rock, Bone and Ruin: An Optimist’s Guide to the Historical Sciences at Cambridge University's Whipple Museum of the History of Science. The “historical sciences”—geology, paleontology, and archaeology—have made extraordinary progress in advancing our understanding of the deep past. How has this been possible, given that the evidence they
- [Six Month Report Nov 2017 - May 2018](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/six-month-report-nov-2017-may-2018/) - We have just prepared a Six Month Report for our Management Committee. This is a public version of that Report. We send short monthly updates in our newsletter – subscribe here. CSER staff, along with our Management Committee and other senior advisors, have continued a high level of research and engagement over the last six
- [UN Conference: AI for Good](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/un-conference-ai-good/) - The AI for Good series is the leading United Nations platform for dialogue on AI. The 2nd AI for Good Global Summit was organized by ITU in Geneva on 15-17 May 2018, in partnership with XPRIZE Foundation, the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) and sister United Nations agencies. A joint CSER/CFI team led one of the Summit's four 'Tracks', on Trust
- [APPG for Future Generations: Black Sky event](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/appg-future-gens-black-sky/) - The first meeting of the “Managing Technological Risk” event series, held by the APPG for Future Generations, was on Tuesday June 5th in Portcullis House, Westminster and focused on Black Sky risks and infrastructure resilience. Simon Beard opened the event by explaining why infrastructure resilience was important for future generations. The probability that we will
- [APPG for Future Generations event: How do We Make AI Safe for Humans?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/appg-ai-safe/) - The All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations held another event in the UK Parliament, on How do We Make AI Safe for Humans? It was held on the evening of Thursday 19th of July in the Attlee Suite of the House of Commons. There will be several more events this year in the 'Managing Technological
- [Decision Theory & the Future of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/decision-ai-2/) - This workshop will continue in the tradition established last year of bringing together philosophers, decision theorists, and AI researchers in order to promote research at the nexus between decision theory and AI. Our plan for the second installment is to make connections between decision theory and burgeoning research programs that may play a prominent role
- [Vision Interview - AI: Thinking Outside the Box](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vision-interview-ai/) - "Will machines soon be smarter than humans? An AI expert talks about where the technology stands, where it’s headed, and what we should be concerned about.Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer the stuff of science fiction. While robot maids may not yet be a reality, researchers are working hard to create reasoning, problem-solving machines whose “brains”
- [CRASSH Meet the Researcher: Adrian Currie](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/crassh-meet-researcher-adrian-currie/) - Adrian gave an 'exit interview' for our parent organisation, CRASSH: "Adrian Currie, Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), is looking at the relationship between the culture of science, and our capacity to understand, predict and mitigate low probability, high impact events. His work is supported by the Templeton World Charity Foundation
- [North Korea’s Nuclear Policy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/north-koreas-nuclear-policy/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is delighted to present a talk on North Korea's nuclear policy, given by Dr. Wade Huntley (US Naval Postgraduate School). What’s next in the North Korean nuclear crisis? The past two years have seen portentous developments, from North Korea’s tests of its largest nuclear device and farthest
- [Plutonium, Silicon and Carbon Workshop (Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/plutonium-workshop-invite-only/) - Invite-only workshop on nuclear command and control. This workshop was part of the Hauser-Raspe Workshop Series at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.
- [Come work with us: New Research Associate Vacancies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/research-associate-vacancies/) - UPDATE: Deadline now passed We are advertising for two new Postdoctoral Research Associate positions in: Bio-risk Horizon-scanning and Foresight This is an exciting opportunity to join our growing team and engage in a cutting-edge research programme with strong prospects for future expansion. Our approach to the study of extreme and existential risks emphasises interdisciplinarity and
- [Special issue: Futures of Research in Catastrophic and Existential Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/special-issue-futures/) - Our special issue Futures of Research in Catastrophic and Existential Risk has just been published. The special issue, edited by Adrian Currie, brings together a wide range of research on existential and catastrophic risk. This research is increasingly multi-disciplinary and broad in scope. It considers how existential risk is conceptualized as well as challenges in
- [The Sunday Times interviews Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sunday-times-interview-martin-rees/) - CSER co-founder Lord Martin Rees was interviewed by the Sunday Times about his new book, On the Future: Prospects for Humanity. "The key to his thinking is that we are now in a pivotal century, probably the pivotal century in human history. He is not too concerned about the world being destroyed by an asteroid
- [‘High-yield’ farming costs the environment less than previously thought – and could help spare habitats](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/high-yield-farming-paper/) - New findings suggest that more intensive agriculture might be the “least bad” option for feeding the world while saving its species – provided use of such “land-efficient” systems prevents further conversion of wilderness to farmland. Agriculture that appears to be more eco-friendly but uses more land may actually have greater environmental costs per unit of
- [Video: Vision interviews Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sean-interview-vision/) - Vision publisher David Hulme sat down with CSER Executive Director Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh for an in-depth interview on artificial intelligence and existential risk.
- [CLOSED: Hiring Senior Research Associate: Academic Programme Manager](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/hiring-apm/) - CLOSED - DEADLINE was 11 November 2018 The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) invites applications for a Senior Research Associate - Academic Programme Manager. This senior position will play a central role in leading CSER's research team and shaping the future of the Centre. This is a unique opportunity to play a
- [The 5 best books on Existential Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/5-best-books-existential-risks/) - In the rapidly-emerging field of existential risks, researchers study the mitigation of threats that could lead to human extinction or civilisational collapse. Four researchers from The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge met with Edouard Mathieu to discuss their recommendations of the best books to get a grasp of this dense subject.
- [Developments in the measurement of natural capital to advance sustainability assessment](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/measurement-natural-capital/) - Eli Fenichel is an Associate Professor at Yale University. Abstract: Wealth-based approaches to assessing sustainability are increasingly popular. A critical challenge to realizing the potential of wealth-based sustainability approaches is measuring the value, or change in value, of natural capital. In this talk I review the theory of wealth-based sustainability, show how it leads directly to
- [Generality and Intelligence: from Biology to AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/generality-and-intelligence/) - Although AI is becoming increasingly important in research, economics, culture, and society, an appreciable gap remains between the generality of modern AI systems and the behavioral flexibility of humans. The goal of this workshop is threefold. First, to consider various conceptualizations and definitions of generality from different disciplines and perspectives. Second, to come up with
- [Contributing to Digital Catapult AI Ethics Framework](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/digital-catapult-ai-ethics-framework/) - Practical ethics guidance and recommendations for artificial intelligence development unveiled by the Machine Intelligence Garage Ethics Committee - including our postdoctoral researcher Dr Shahar Avin. Digital Catapult released its first Ethics Framework and invited AI companies to test the framework as a means to integrate ethical practice into the development of artificial intelligence and machine
- [Radio: The Science Show interviews Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lord-rees-interview-science-show/) - Lord Martin Rees was interviewed on The Science Show on ABC's Radio National on his new book, On the Future: "He wrote a contentious book called Our Last Century and it was supposed to have a question mark after the title – but the publishers left it off. Now, Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal, former President of the Royal Society and
- [Sunday Times reviews 'On The Future'](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sunday-times-review-future/) - Lord Martin Rees' new book On The Future was reviewed in the Sunday Times by Tom Whipple, the Times' science editor. "In On the Future Rees is clearly in an optimistic frame of mind. His previous book was titled Our Final Century, and prophesied all manner of existential anthropogenic catastrophe (he complained, in fairness, that his publisher removed the question mark at
- [Video: Newsnight interviews Simon Beard](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/simon-beard-newsnight/) - CSER postdoc Dr Simon Beard appeared on Newsnight, the BBC's leading current affairs programme, to discuss the new IPCC report, climate change, and existential risk.
- [Financial Times reviews 'On The Future'](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/financial-times-review-future/) - The Financial Times reviews Lord Rees' new book 'On The Future' in this article: Can humanity survive the future? "Lord Martin Rees manages weighty, often scary, matters with an eminently accessible lightness of touch in On the Future: Prospects for Humanity. Rees is a trusted veteran and inveterate prognosticator. Among his many roles, he has
- [Vox interviews Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vox-interviews-martin-rees/) - Vox's Future Perfect interviews our cofounder Lord Rees about his new book: "Martin Rees is Britain’s astronomer royal, a professor at Cambridge University, and one of the leading cosmologists in the world. In a 2003 book, titled Our Final Hour, he gave civilization a 50-50 chance of surviving the 21st century, an estimate he reached
- [Vanity Fair reviews 'On the Future'](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vanity-fair-reviews-future/) - Vanity Fair reviews CSER co-founder Lord Martin Rees' new book "On the Future": "As we survive 2018 on a diet of daily news, big-name intellectuals are inviting us to zoom out from day-to-day politics. Martin Rees’s latest book offers a brief look at the long run."
- [New Statesman reviews 'On The Future'](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/reasons-be-cheerless/) - "Reasons to be cheerless: all the ways in which humanity might soon be obliterated" The New Statesman reviews Lord Martin Rees' new book On The Future: "Climate change, nuclear war or an asteroid strike could wipe out the planet as a viable habitat. An overpopulated world – there are projected to be nine billion citizens
- [Inside Higher Ed reviews 'On the Future'](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/inside-higher-ed-reviews-future/) - "Martin Rees encourages the reader to think beyond the new norms of diminished and collapsing expectations. The author is astronomer royal and former president of the Royal Society. He speculates from the vantage point of a well-placed nonspecialist -- aware of developments in pertinent fields and good at evoking a sense of cosmic scale and
- [Podcast interviews with Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/podcast-interviews-martin-rees/) - Lord Martin Rees' new book 'On The Future' is now available as an audiobook. Listen to the preface, read by Martin Rees. Lord Rees was interviewed by: Izzie Clarke, from The Naked Scientists podcast. Ariel Conn, from the Future of Life Institute podcast. Rob Reid, from the After On podcast. Sam Alexandroni, from the
- [I love my children but are they the biggest moral mistake I ever made?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/i-love-my-children-are-they-biggest-moral-mistake/) - "I really love my children but are they the biggest moral mistake I ever made?" This is the question posed by moral philosopher and Radio 3 New Generation Thinker Dr Simon Beard. In this Sunday Feature radio programme, Simon sets out to explore the moral ramifications of his decision to have two children. Meeting academics, campaigners and
- [New report from the Nuclear Threat Initiative: "Nuclear Weapons in the New Cyber Age"](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-report-nti/) - Large-scale use of nuclear weapons is a prominent scenario for anthropogenic global catastrophic risk. It has been so since the 60s, with the creation of giant weapon stockpiles in the USA and the USSR and the establishment of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Decades-long experience of the ever-present threat of nuclear war (and the possibility of
- [Six Month Report May-October 2018](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/six-month-report-may-october-2018/) - We have just prepared a Six Month Report for our Management Board. This is a public version of that Report. We send short monthly updates in our newsletter – subscribe here. Read as PDF Contents: Overview Policy and Industry Engagement Academic Engagement Public Engagement Recruitment and research team Expert Workshops and Public Lectures Upcoming activities
- [BBC HARDtalk: Lord Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-hardtalk-lord-martin-rees/) - CSER co-founder Lord Rees was interviewed on the BBC's HARDtalk programme. "How do we decide what is important? How do we balance the personal priorities of the here and now, with the big picture challenges that will determine the future of human civilisation? Stephen Sackur's guest is used to considering the biggest of canvases. Martin
- [FLI interview: Catherine Rhodes on Governing Biotechology](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/fli-interview-catherine-rhodes-governing-biotechol/) - Dr Catherine Rhodes was interviewed on the Future of Life Institute Podcast about Governing Biotechology. "As biotechnology and other emerging technologies become more powerful, the dual-use nature of research — that is, research that can have both beneficial and risky outcomes — is increasingly important to address. How can scientists and policymakers work together to
- [CNN Amanpour: Lord Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cnn-amanpour-lord-martin-rees/) - Lord Martin Rees was interviewed by leading CNN journalist Christiane Amanpour. Amanpour is CNN's flagship global affairs interview program. Watch here
- [SafeAI 2019](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/safeai-2019/) - SafeAI is the AAAI's Workshop on Artificial Intelligence Safety. It was held in January 27, 2019, in Honolulu, Hawaii (USA) as part of the Thirty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-19) - one of the world's leading AI conferencea. SafeAI aims to explore new ideas on AI safety engineering, ethically aligned design, regulation and standards for AI-based
- [Engagement with policy-makers and industry-leaders](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/engagement-policy-makers-and-industry-leaders/) - CSER researchers engaged with policy-makers and industry-leaders at several invite-only events: Modern deterrence: what does the combination of nuclear, BCW, cyber and AI mean for the evolution of western deterrence against state and non-state actors? Overview. Organised by Ditchley Park, which was founded in 1958 to bring together high-level decision-makers and experts. Powerful actor, high
- [APPG Future Generations - Global Pandemics: Is the UK Prepared?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/appg-future-generations-global-pandemics-uk-prepar/) - The All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations held an event: Global Pandemics: Is the UK Prepared?Tuesday 27th of November, 6:30pm - 8:30pmThatcher Room, Portcullis House, House of Commons Pandemics have always been a part of human life, but our interconnected world makes us more vulnerable than we have ever been before. This risk stems from
- [Talking Politics: Lord Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/talking-politics-lord-martin-rees/) - Lord Martin Rees was interviewed by Professor David Runciman about how we should evaluate the greatest threats facing the human species in the twenty-first century. Does the biggest danger come from bio-terror or bio-error, climate change, nuclear war or AI? And what prospects does space travel provide for a post-human future? Listen
- [The Economist: Will humans wipe out humanity?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/economist-will-humans-wipe-out-humanity/) - The Economist interviewed Lord Martin Rees: "The importance of science in society has no greater spokesperson than Lord Martin Rees. From his perch at Cambridge—and a centre he formed on studying existential risks—he has served as both a promoter, populariser and the moral conscience of scientific endeavour far beyond his academic field of astrophysics. In
- [Engineering and Technology Magazine reviews 'On The Future'](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/eandt-reviews/) - Astronomer Royal’s rallying call for rational thinking about how we can shape our own destiny. "The world is changing so fast that Martin Rees is probably justified in revisiting the same territory he covered in the 2003 book that he wanted to call ‘Our Final Century?’. As he admits, his UK publisher persuaded him to
- [CBC Radio: Lord Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cbc-radio-lord-martin-rees/) - Lord Martin Rees was interviewed by CBC Radio One, Canada's national public broadcaster. While some humans might one day live on Mars, the U.K.'s astronomer royal warns that the prospect of a mass migration to the Red Planet is a "dangerous delusion." "I think we have to accept that there's no planet B, which can ever be
- [Business School Rankings for the 21st Century Report Launch](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/business-school-rankings-21st-century-report-launc/) - Davos, Switzerland – A new report on business school rankings is being simultaneously launched in Davos and Shanghai, with business school deans to discuss the report in Davos on January 23. The report, published under the aegis of the UN Global Compact and with the support of Aviva Investors gives an overview of the current
- [Near- vs Long-term AI in new Nature journal](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/near-vs-long-term-ai-new-nature-journal/) - Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Executive Director of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, and Stephen Cave, were invited to contribute a paper to the new Nature journal Nature Machine Intelligence. Their paper, Bridging near- and long-term concerns about AI, argues that debate about the impacts of AI is often split into two camps, one associated with the
- [2019 Doomsday Clock: 2 Minutes to Midnight](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/2019-doomsday-clock-2-minutes-midnight/) - The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has kept the Doomsday Clock at 2 minutes to midnight, the closest it has been since 1953. This year it has warned about the 'new abnormal'. Humanity faces simultaneous existential risks, each of which would be cause for extreme concern and immediate attention. Several risks from technology or man-made activity
- [SafeAI Workshop: 22 AI safety papers](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/safeai-workshop/) - We co-organised SafeAI, the AAAI's Workshop on Artificial Intelligence Safety. It was held in January 27, 2019, in Honolulu, Hawaii (USA) as part of the Thirty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-19) - one of the world's leading AI conferencea. SafeAI aims to explore new ideas on AI safety engineering, ethically aligned design, regulation and standards for
- [Video: Lord Martin Rees Long Now Foundation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-lord-martin-rees-long-now-foundation/) - Lord Martin Rees gave a key-note lecture at the Long Now Foundation. Watch now on the Long Now website. Introduction: To think usefully about humanity’s future, you have to bear everything in mind simultaneously. Nobody has managed that better than Martin Rees in his succinct summing-up book: ON THE FUTURE: Prospects for Humanity. As the recent
- [CSER at the Beneficial AGI 2019 Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-beneficial-agi-2019-conference/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) was delighted to participate in the Beneficial Artificial General Intelligence 2019 conference in Puerto Rico early in January. After the Puerto Rico AI conference in 2015 and Asilomar Beneficial AI conference in 2017, the conference returned to Puerto Rico at the start of 2019 to talk about
- [Ground Zero Earth Exhibition](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ground-zero-earth-art/) - Ground Zero Earth has been curated by Yasmine Rix in collaboration with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER). The exhibition explores the work of CSER, a research centre based at the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of existential risks. It brings together five artists exploring anthropogenic themes to address what is at stake
- [Ground Zero Earth: A new exhibition showing the time is now or the future is never](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ground-zero-earth-time-now-or-future-never/) - From climate change to political unrest we live in uncertain times – opening on February 15th is an art exhibition that explores our future and our reality in this pivotal moment of uncertainty. Ground Zero Earth draws on themes from the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), a University of Cambridge research group
- [Ground Zero Earth on BBC Radio](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ground-zero-earth-bbc-radio/) - Dr Simon Beard and Yasmine Rix were interviewed on BBC Radio, discussing the new 'Ground Zero Earth' exhibition, which runs from February 15th - March 22nd 2019. The interview begins at 30.55. Listen now
- [Sunday Times: Lord Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/sunday-times-lord-martin-rees/) - Martin Rees reflects on his life and career in this Sunday Times interview: "In your new book, On the Future, you address biotechnology, robotics, cyber technology and AI. How will we all be living in the future? Students in the 1960s and 1970s personalised their rooms with books, records and pictures. And many of us
- [Letter in the Financial Times on business school rankings](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/letter-financial-times-business-school-rankings/) - CSER postdoc Ellen Quigley and David Pitt-Watson co-wrote a letter in the Financial Times signed by two dozen business and civil society leaders, academics and representatives of business-school accreditation agencies. It draws attention to the new Business School Rankings for the 21st Century report and praises the FT's “complete review of their methodology" on business school rankings. Full
- [Video: Lord Rees keynote at European Union Parliament Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lord-rees-keynote-european-union-parliament-confer/) - Keynote discussion by Lord Martin Rees on Global governance in the Anthropocene age: Potential and limitations, 29 November 2018. At the European Union Parliament ESPAS Annual Conference 2018: Global Trends to 2030: Shaping the future in a fast-changing world.
- [Radio: Science Studio Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/radio-science-studio-martin-rees/) - Dr. Keith Pannell speaks with cosmologist, astrophysicist, Astronomer Royal, Master of Trinity College and President of the Royal Society Martin Rees about among other things our existence in the universe.
- [LA Review of Books: In a Universe which Keeps Bifurcating - Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/la-review-books-universe/) - Lord Martin Rees was interviewed by the Los Angelese Review of Books: "How might billion-year cosmological horizons get shaped by decisions human make in the next few decades? How might future-oriented scientific engagements best address present-day social disparities? When I want to ask such questions, I pose them to Lord Martin Rees. This present conversation focuses on
- [Ground Zero Earth Art Exhibition: Panel Discussion](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ground-zero-earth-art-exhibition/) - Exhibition reception and panel discussion Ground Zero Earth has been curated by Yasmine Rix in collaboration with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER). The exhibition explores the work of CSER, a research centre based at the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of existential risks. It brings together five artists exploring anthropogenic themes to address
- [BBC: What are the biggest threats to humanity?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-what-are-biggest-threats-humanity/) - Dr Lauren Holt and Dr Simon Beard were commissioned by the BBC to write an introduction to existential risk. "Human extinction may be the stuff of nightmares but there are many ways in which it could happen. Popular culture tends to focus on only the most spectacular possibilities: think of the hurtling asteroid of the film
- [BBC: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-are-we-road-civilisation-collapse/) - Studying the demise of historic civilisations can tell us how much risk we face today, says collapse expert Luke Kemp. Worryingly, the signs are worsening.
- [Advice to the US Dept of Commerce](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/advice-us-dept-commerce/) - This is a copy of Dr Sam Weiss Evans' comment for the Department of Commerce Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on “Review of Controls on Certain Emerging Technologies”. Read more about why Commerce asked for comments on how they govern security concerns in emerging technologies, and why it is important. You can also find this comment in the
- [Advice to UN High-level Panel on Digital Cooperation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/advice-un-high-level-panel-digital-cooperation/) - Researchers from Cambridge University's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and Oxford University's Center for the Governance of AI at the Future of Humanity Institute submitted advice to the UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel on Digital Cooperation. The High-level Panel on Digital Cooperation was established by the UN Secretary-General in July 2018 to identify good examples and propose modalities for
- [Cambridge University video: life in the age of intelligent machines](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cambridge-university-video-ai/) - CSER researchers, and our colleagues at our sister organisation the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence were featured in a video from the University of Cambridge on AI:
- [Guardian Video: can we all move to Mars?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/guardian-video-can-we-all-move-mars/) - The first of a series of films called 'Five minute masterminds' starts with Prof Martin Rees, the astronomer royal. He asks how the future of space exploration will transform how we think of humanity and if we can rely on mass emigration to Mars to save us from the Earth's problems
- [Advice to EU High-Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/advice-eu-high-level-expert-group-artificial-intel/) - Dr Shahar Avin and Haydn Belfield submitted advice to the European Union's High-Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence (AI HLEG). The AI HLEG was established by the European Commission in June 2018 to support the implementation of its Strategy on Artificial Intelligence and to prepare two deliverables: (1) AI Ethics Guidelines and (2) Policy and Investment Recommendations.
- [Academia Europaea: Lord Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/academia-europaea-lord-martin-rees/) - "Advances in technology have led to a world where most people enjoy a safer, longer, and more satisfying life than previous generations, and these positive trends could continue. On the other hand, environmental degradation, unchecked climate change, and unintended consequences of advanced technology are collaterals of these advances. A world with a higher population more
- [Extremes book launch](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extremes-book-launch/) - Duncan Needham, Charles Darwin and Julius Weitzdörfer Yesterday was the book launch for CSER researcher Julius Weitzdörfer's new book 'Extremes'. This is based on the 2017 Darwin College Lectures, which he co-organised with Duncan Needham. Humanity is confronted by and attracted to extremes. Extreme events shape our thinking, feeling, and actions; they echo in our politics, media, literature,
- [EiM 2: The second meeting on Ethics in Mathematics](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/eim-2-event/) - This workshop is the initiative of Dr Maurice Chiodo (postdoctoral researcher in mathematics), with the close assistance of Dr Piers Bursill-Hall (Lecturer of History of Mathematics). Confirmed speakers: Catherine Buell (University of Fitchberg) Rishi Vyas (Krea University) Tony Gardiner (University of Birmingham/LMS) Clement Mouhot (University of Cambridge) Collin Rittberg (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) Ann-Kristin Glenster (University
- [Rise of the Machines short film screening](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/rise-machines-short-films/) - Film screening with panel Q&A as part of the Ground Zero Earth exhibition and Cambridge Science Festival hosted at the Alison Richard Building. ‘Rise of the Machines’ is a quartet of short films by Dr Beth Singler, made with the Faraday Institute for Science and Religion and the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence,
- [Lord Speaker's Lecture: Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-parliament-martin-rees/) - Martin Rees (Lord Rees of Ludlow) delivers the Lord Speaker's Lecture, 'On the Future: technology and environmental stresses in 2050 and beyond', from Wednesday 27 February. Watch on BBC iPlayer
- [BBC Radio 4: Will humans survive the century?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-radio-4-will-humans-survive-century/) - The BBC Radio 4 programme 'Analysis' examines the ideas and forces which shape public policy in Britain and abroad. This week it covers existential risk. Video clip: Dr Lalitha Sundaram on Can we survive another pandemic? What is the chance of the human race surviving the 21st century? There are many dangers – climate change for
- [Q&A: Ground Zero Earth](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/q-ground-zero-earth/) - Judith Weik, Coordinator of Art at the Alison Richard Building, speaks to Yas Rix, curator of Ground Zero Earth. The exhibition is located on three floors of the Alison Richard Building at the University of Cambridge (click here for directions) and runs until 22 March 2019. Read full article
- [Prof. Dasgupta to lead UK Govt Review of the Economics of Biodiversity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/dasgupta-lead-uk-review-eco-biodiversity/) - In the Spring Statement, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced: "later this year, the UK government will launch a comprehensive global review of the link between biodiversity and economic growth to be led by Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, Emeritus Professor of Economics at Cambridge." Prof. Dasgupta is the Chair of the Management Board of
- [Nature Letter: Brexit threatens biosecurity](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/nature-letter-brexit-threatens-biosecurity/) - CSER researchers had a letter published in Nature: "Biosecurity is likely to be seriously compromised by the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union. Common rules and safeguards, backed by a common judicial system, have for decades protected human, animal and plant health against biological hazards. Even so, ash dieback still threatens 60 million UK trees,
- [Conversation: global systems and dinosaur extinction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/conversation-global-systems-and-dinosaur-extinctio/) - CSER researchers published a Conversation article arguing that catastrophic failure of Earth’s global systems led to the extinction of the dinosaurs – and we may yet go the same way. "Growing evidence now suggests that the dinosaur’s extinction cannot be explained as a simple process during which one “bad thing” fell out of a clear blue
- [IEEE Ethically Aligned Design published](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ieee-ethically-aligned-design-published/) - The IEEE today launched Ethically Aligned Design, First Edition: A Vision for Prioritizing Human Well-being with Autonomous and Intelligent Systems (EAD1e), a groundbreaking report to take ethical implementation of these systems worldwide from principles to practice. Several of our researchers contributed to the report. The IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems produced the
- [EU Ethics Guidelines published](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/eu-ethics-guidelines-published/) - Today, the EU High-Level Expert Group (HLEG) on AI released their ethics guidelines for trustworthy artificial intelligence. Our co-founder, Jaan Tallinn, was one of the 52 HLEG experts, drawn from tech companies, NGOs and academia. Haydn Belfield and Shahar Avin contributed advice to the HLEG. The guidelines put forward a set of 7 key requirements that AI systems
- [Ground Zero Earth Overview](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ground-zero-earth-overview/) - Exhibition Ground Zero Earth took place between 15th February and 22nd March 2019 curated by Yasmine Rix in collaboration with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER). Bringing together five artists who question, provoke and explore our relationships with technology, our environments and how these relate to our humanity, Ground Zero Earth aimed to address what is
- [Lecture Videos from our 2018 Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/lecture-videos-our-2018-conference/) - We have published 11 videos of talks given at 2018’s Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk (CCCR2018), the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk’s major international conference, supported by the Templeton World Charity Foundation. It focused on four challenges faced by research communities focused on existential and global catastrophic risk research: Challenges of Evaluation and Impact;
- [Six Month Report November 2018 - April 2019](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/six-month-report-nov-april-2019/) - We have just prepared a Six Month Report for our Management Board. This is a public version of that Report. We send short monthly updates in our newsletter – subscribe here. READ AS PDF Contents: Overview Policy and Industry Engagement Academic Engagement Public Engagement Recruitment and research team Expert Workshops and Public Lectures Upcoming activities Publications
- [Civilizational collapse interview](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/civilizational-collapse-interview/) - Dr Luke Kemp was interviewed by Robert Wright - a journalist, Editor-in-Chief of Bloggingheads.tv and author - about civilizational collapse, global governance and existential risk.
- [BBC: Why the 'post-natural' age could be strange and beautiful](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-post-natural-age/) - Dr Lauren Holt writes for BBC Future: “As long as humans have existed, we have been influencing our planet’s flora and fauna. So, if humanity continues to flourish far into the future, how will nature change? And how might this genetic manipulation affect our own biology and evolutionary trajectory? The short answer: it will be
- [Zero Carbon Futures Symposium](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/zero-carbon-futures-symposium/) - This event is a participative expert symposium organised by Carbon Neutral Cambridge, in partnership with the Greater Cambridge Shared Planning Service of South Cambridgeshire District Council and Cambridge City Council, supported by Cambridge University’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and local businesses. Objectives: To help inform policy development for the new joint Greater
- [Phil Torres: When Did We Realize That We Could Die Out? A Look at the Origin and Evolution of the Idea of Human Extinction](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/phil-torres-when-did-we-realize-we-could-die-out/) - A number of scholars in the emerging field of existential risk studies have wondered why so little academic work has to date focused on human extinction. One answer is that the idea of human extinction is a fairly recent addition to our shared library of concepts. In this presentation, which borrows from a forthcoming book
- [CSER response to the IPBES' 2019 Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-response-ipbes/) - The latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services highlights the grave threat humanity is posing to the world’s ecosystems, with over 1 million species currently threatened with extinction. However, this report also brings home the scale of the threat that biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse pose to humanity. As the
- [Ellen Quigley appointed to University role](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/ellen-quigley-appointed-university-role/) - Dr Ellen Quigley has been appointed to work with the University of Cambridge's Chief Financial Officer to establish a programme of research into responsible investment. The appointment was covered in the Guardian, amongst others. This also comes with the launch of the University's Carbon Neutral Futures Initiative, led by friend of CSER Dr Emily Shuckburgh.
- [Metro: Artificial diseases will pose a threat to humans, but not in the way you’re thinking](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/metro-artificial-diseases-will-pose-threat-humans/) - "When you hear the phrase ‘artificial disease’, you might immediately think of a disaster movie in which an illness is engineered in a laboratory and then escapes – by accident or design – to infect the general " Read full article
- [Civilisational collapse has a bright past – but a dark future](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/civilisational-collapse-bright-dark/) - Dr Luke Kemp has written a fascinating piece on societal collapse for Aeon: "Is the collapse of a civilisation necessarily calamitous? The failure of the Egyptian Old Kingdom towards the end of the 2nd millennium BCE was accompanied by riots, tomb-raids and even cannibalism. ‘The whole of Upper Egypt died of hunger and each individual
- [BBC: Deep ethics: The long-term quest to decide right from wrong](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-deep-ethics-long-term-quest-decide-right-wrong/) - Dr Simon Beard writes for BBC Future: "In the TV series “The Good Place”, a deceased philosophy professor called Chidi tries to help his fellow residents of a non-denominational afterlife to become better people by introducing them to problems that moral philosophers worry about. This includes a classic ethical thought experiment called the “trolley problem”:
- [Haydn Belfield interviewed by Naked Scientists](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/haydn-belfield-interviewed-naked-scientists/) - CSER researcher Haydn Belfield was interviewed by the Naked Scientists for their radio show and podcast, on a Q&A episode. He answered a series of questions on existential risk, including: What is the doomsday clock? How could a pandemic happen? How bad could climate change get? Also on the panel were astronomer Carolin Crawford, nanoscientist
- [Extreme Risks panel at CSaP Conference](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/extreme-risks-panel-csap-conference/) - CSER is organising a panel at the Centre for Science and Policy (CSaP) 2019 Annual Conference. CSaP's Annual Conference will bring together members of their network from government, academia and elsewhere to discuss some of the policy challenges they have worked on over the past year such as environmental policy; emerging technologies and social care;
- [APPG for Future Generations: Negative emissions technologies: a necessary step or a false hope?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/appg-future-generations-negative-emissions-technol/) - On May 22nd 2019 the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations on Extreme Technological Risk, in conjunction with the All Party Parliamentary Group on Climate Change, held its fourth meeting. Full report ‘Negative emissions technologies: a necessary step or a false hope?’ May 22nd 2019, 17.30-18.30, Committee Room 4 The meeting was chaired and introduced
- [Why and how civilisations collapse](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/why-and-how-civilisations-collapse/) - When you think of a civilisation collapsing what comes to mind? Buildings on fire, people screaming and running in fright, chaos against a dark and foreboding sky. Or is it more often slow and protracted rather than sudden and catastrophic? Luke Kemp was interviewed by Australian radio about his historical autopsy of how civilisations collapse.
- [Chatham House lecture: Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/chatham-house-lecture-martin-rees/) - Lord Rees spoke at the Chatham House 'London Conference 2019: The Future of Humanity' Lord Rees of Ludlow, Astronomer Royal and Co-Founder, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of CambridgeChair: Dr Patricia Lewis, Research Director, International Security, Chatham House Lord Rees of Ludlow draws on themes from his recent book On the Future: Prospects for Humanity,
- [Cross-Cultural Trust for Beneficial AI (Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cross-cultural-trust-beneficial-ai/) - The task of developing AI for good requires relationships of trust of several kinds. For example, AI technologists and governments must trust each other to work together on issues of regulation and governance; and AI researchers, on the one hand, and scholars from the humanities and social sciences, on the other, must trust and respect
- [APPG for Future Generations: Drones, Swarming and the Future of Warfare](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/appg-future-generations-drones-swarming-and-future/) - The All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations held an event: Drones, Swarming and the Future of Warfare Tuesday 11 June, 17:00-18:00 David Hambling, Journalist and Author of ‘Swarm Troopers’ Sebastian Brixey-Williams, Programme Director, BASIC Remarks by David Hambling: Small drones are increasingly cheap, numerous, autonomous, and evolving very rapidly. They have the potential to significantly
- [BBC Future at Hay Festival: How to think longer-term](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-future-hay-festival/) - At the Hay Festival, BBC Future assembled three thinkers from the worlds of philosophy, politics and science to discuss one of the most pressing questions of our time: how to tackle society’s habit of “short-termism” - and what it might take to lengthen our perspective and reconsider the well-being of future generations. This includes Martin Rees, author of
- [Novel Practices of Biosecurity Governance (invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/novel-practices-biosecurity-governance/) - The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) will hold a workshop in Cambridge, UK to discuss the development of a system for sharing and learning from the practice of biosecurity governance. Around 40 leading practitioners will gather to discuss the development of a system for sharing knowledge and learning from the practice of
- [Norms for Communication and Digital Technologies - Prof Onora O'Neill](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/norms-communication-and-digital-technologies-prof/) - Both ethical and epistemic norms that matter for communication have been discussed since antiquity, and have frequently had to be adjusted to take account of changes in the technologies used to communicate. Current concerns about communication that uses digital technologies may raise distinctive problems. I shall ask whether, and if so why, digital technologies place
- [BioRISC: Biosecurity: Are we prepared? (Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biorisc-biosecurity-are-we-prepared-invite-only/) - The Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine's (BioRISC) is a newly-established world-class hub that will provide cutting edge, evidence-based information about existing and emerging biological security risks and interventions. Creation of this initiative is particularly timely. Coordinated national strategies on biological security have recently been published and there is growing international dialogue on management of
- [BioRISC: 100 Questions for UK Biosecurity (invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biorisc-100-questions-uk-biosecurity-invite-only/) - The Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine's (BioRISC) is a newly-established world-class hub that will provide cutting edge, evidence-based information about existing and emerging biological security risks and interventions. Creation of this initiative is particularly timely. Coordinated national strategies on biological security have recently been published and there is growing international dialogue on management of
- [5 Recent Publications on Existential Risk (July 2019)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/recent-publications-existential-risk-july-2019/) - Each month, The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA) uses a unique machine-learning model to predict those publications most relevant to existential risk or global catastrophic risk. The following are a selection of those papers identified this month. Please note that we provide these citations and abstracts as a service to aid other researchers in paper
- [Daily Mirror: The issues in Boris Johnson's intray](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/daily-mirror-issues-boris-johnsons-intray/) - The Daily Mirror asked seven experts what the government needs to do to get on top of some of the biggest policy challenges - what Boris Johnson should do with his time as Prime Minister. Haydn Belfield, Research Associate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk discussed the malicious use of artificial intelligence: "Boris Johnson doesn’t
- [Is Immortality Worth It?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/immortality-worth-it/) - Martin Rees has written a piece for the Project Syndicate. "Almost everyone would welcome an extension of their healthy lifespan, and some scientists are looking at increasingly extreme ways to achieve that. But any major breakthrough in this area could have unwanted and far-reaching demographic, social, and economic implications." read full article
- [AISafety workshop at IJCAI 2019](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/aisafety-workshop-ijcai-2019/) - AISafety workshop at IJCAI 2019 led by organising committee including Sean O hEigeartaigh and Jose Hernandez-Orallo. CSER sponsored this workshop. https://www.ai-safety.org/
- [FLI Podcast: Climate Crisis as an Existential Threat: Simon Beard & Haydn Belfield](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/fli-podcast-climate-crisis-existential-threat-simo/) - Does the climate crisis pose an existential threat? And is that even the best way to formulate the question, or should we be looking at the relationship between the climate crisis and existential threats differently? In this month’s FLI podcast, Ariel Conn was joined by Simon Beard and Haydn Belfield of the University of Cambridge’s Center for the Study of Existential
- [Audio of CSaP panel event](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/audio-csap-panel-event/) - We organised a panel on 'Extreme Risks – Challenges for evidence and policy' at the Centre for Science and Policy (CSaP) annual conference. You can listen to the panel discussion on the CSaP website here. The panel explored extreme events and the policy challenges around preparedness and response to such events, using the Salisbury Novichok incident as a
- [Decision Theory & the Future of Artificial Intelligence III (Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/decision-ai-iii/) - The third workshop in a series bringing together philosophers, decision theorists, and AI researchers to promote research at the nexus of decision theory and AI. Co-organised with the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy. See 2018 and 2017 workshops. Speakers: David Danks (CMU)Tom Dietterich (Oregon State)Branden Fitelson (Northeastern)Finnian Lattimore (Gradient Institute)Anna Mahtani (LSE)Jim Joyce (Michigan)Johanna Thoma (LSE)Toby
- [CSER Public Lecture: Jason Matheny](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-public-lecture-jason-matheny/) - Jason Matheny is the Founding Director of Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). He will discuss the new Center’s approach to artificial intelligence and US national security. Previously he was Assistant Director of National Intelligence, and Director of IARPA, responsible for the development of breakthrough technologies for the U.S. intelligence community. Before
- [CSER Public Lecture: Zia Mian](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-public-lecture-zia-mian-2/) - Zia Mian is a physicist and co-director of Princeton University's Program on Science and Global Security, part of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, where he has worked since 1997. He also directs the Program's Project on Peace and Security in South Asia. His research interests include issues of nuclear arms control, nonproliferation
- [Black Sky Resilience Group (BSRG) Roundtable (Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/black-sky-resilience-group-bsrg-roundtable-invite/) - The second roundtable of the Black Sky Resilience Group (BSRG) will take place at Darwin College on Monday 23 September, from 1:30 pm to 4pm. The BSRG is a Cambridge-based interdisciplinary research network. It aims to connect researchers at the University of Cambridge from across disciplines whose work touches on themes of societal and infrastructure
- [Second Horizon Scan for Emerging Issues in Bioengineering(Invite only)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/second-horizon-scan-emerging-issues-bioengineering/) - This is a follow-up to our 2016 Horizon Scan for Emerging Issues in Bioengineering workshop. CSER researchers ran a horizon-scanning exercise for 20 Emerging Issues in Biological Engineering drawing on 30 European and US experts. They presented the paper at the 2017 Meeting of States Parties to the BWC, and at the Science Advisory Board of
- [Governments are failing to understand global catastrophic risks and need to take urgent action, says new report](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/governments-are-failing-understand/) - Governments are failing to understand the human-driven catastrophic risks that threaten global security, prosperity and potential, and could in the worst case lead to mass harm and societal collapse, say researchers at the University of Cambridge. Without action, these catastrophic risks will only grow over time, whether it be on climate change, ecothreats, synthetic biology
- [Telegraph covers new report](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/telegraph-covers-new-report/) - Sarah Knapton, the Telegraph Science Editor, covered our new report: 'Researchers from Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) said the government was failing to prepare for ‘human-driven catastrophic risks’ that could lead to mass harm and societal collapse. In recent years advances in science such as genetic engineering, and artificial intelligence (AI) have opened
- [Zero Carbon Futures Symposium Report](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/zero-carbon-futures-symposium-report/) - On 21 May 2019 Carbon Neutral Cambridge organised the Zero Carbon Futures Symposium in partnership with the Greater Cambridge Shared Planning Service, South Cambridgeshire District Council and Cambridge City Council. The event was supported by the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and local businesses. 51% of the 57 expert participants
- [Observer: Martin Rees Q&A](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/observer-martin-rees-q/) - Lord Martin Rees was interviewed by the Observer/Guardian newspaper: "At the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, you study some of the potential impacts for humanity of speedy technological change… One consequence of modern technology is that the world is more interconnected. It’s possible for small groups or even individuals to produce an effect that
- [Adrian Currie discusses Xrisk on Imagine 2084](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/adrian-currie-discusses-xrisk-portugese-tv/) - Adrian Currie's interview on Portugese TV's Imagine 2084 about Xrisk.
- [Vox: Why governments are bad at facing catastrophic risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/vox-why-governments-are-bad-facing-catastrophic-ri/) - Kelsey Piper at Vox wrote up our new policy report: "Do national governments have a plan to prevent global catastrophe? Do policymakers even know enough about those risks to make plans, and do they have access to the expertise they need for effective planning? The answer is — not really. At least, that’s one takeaway from
- [Irish Times: The world’s governments need to begin preparing for existential risk scenarios](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/irish-times-worlds-governments-need-begin-preparin/) - Dick Ahlstrom, Science Editor at the Irish Times, on our new report: "Humans have done much to promote health, extend lifespan and make widespread use of all the resources delivered by our remarkable planet Earth. Unfortunately, in the process, we have also developed any number of ways to destroy ourselves and wipe out human civilisation.
- [Six Month Report April - September 2019](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/six-month-report-apr-sep-2019/) - We send short monthly updates in our newsletter – subscribe here. READ AS PDF Contents Overview Policy Engagement – Impact Industry Engagement – Impact Academic Engagement – Field-building Public Engagement – Field-building Recruitment and research team Changes to CSER Management Team New Postdoctoral Research Associates and Research Assistants Visiting Researchers Upcoming events Publications 1. Overview The
- [Down the Hunger Spiral: Pathways to the Disintegration of the Global Food System](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/down-hunger-spiral-pathways-disintegration-global/) - Asaf Tzachor wrote a guest post for the blog series Averting Global Catastrophe (Council on Foreign Relations), which examines global catastrophic risks, including their likelihood and impact, and international cooperative measures to mitigate them. "It is a tragic irony that one of the harbingers and hallmarks of modern civilization may bring about its demise: the system
- [The Globe and Mail: 21st Century Crucial for Humanity and the Planet: Sir Martin Rees Interview](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/globe-and-mail-21st-century-crucial-humanity-and-p/) - "Earth has been around for about 45 million centuries but, according to astrophysicist and author Sir Martin Rees, the century we’re living in is different in a crucial way. For the first time, a single species – our own – carries the future of the planet in its hands. The choices we make in the
- [Martin Rees: Challenges of population growth and resource shortages can’t be solved by any country alone](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-challenges-population-growth-and-resou/) - “Space-ship Earth is hurtling through the void. Its passengers are anxious and fractious, and their life support system is vulnerable to disruption and breakdowns. And there is too little planning, too little horizon-scanning. Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries, but this century is special: it’s the first when one species, ours, has the
- [Martin Rees: Global Grand Challenges Summit 2019](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-global-grand-challenges-summit-2019/) - Martin Rees' keynote at the Global Grand Challenges Summit 2019: The World in 2050 and Beyond
- [The Biomedicine Threat](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/biomedicine-threat/) - Martin Rees has written a piece for the Project Syndicate on the biomedicine threat. "Rapid advances in biotechnology demand additional regulations to keep experiments safe, control the spread of potentially dangerous knowledge, and police the ethics of how new learning is applied. But effective worldwide enforcement of such rules will be virtually impossible – and
- [Fundraising Success](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/fundraising-success/) - We are delighted to announce that we have secured a five year grant from the Isaac Newton Trust, complemented by matching funds from generous philanthropists and foundations. In combination with new grants and funding renewals, this will allow the Centre to continue and expand its research programmes for the 2019-2024 period. Strategically, this marks the shift
- [Conversation: no country is sufficiently prepared for global risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/conversation-no-country-sufficiently-prepared-glob/) - Gabriel Recchia and Haydn Belfield wrote a Conversation piece based on our recent report Global Catastrophic Risks Policy 1 - Understand. "There’s little that the left and the right agree on these days. But surely one thing is beyond question: that national governments must protect citizens from the gravest threats and risks they face. Although
- [Video interview: Martin Rees on Climate Ethics & Climate Politics](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/video-interview-martin-rees-climate-ethics-climate/) - Morgan Sheil - a University of Cambridge Postgrad student, and Lord Martin Rees - Astronomer Royal & Author, discuss Climate, Climate Ethics, Climate Action, and Climate Politics. Filmed at the Lauterpacht Centre for International Law, Cambridge. Presented by Cambridge Global Conversations and World Ethics and Leadership Foundation. Watch full interview.
- [21 Recent Publications on Existential Risk (September 2019 update)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/21-recent-publications-existential-risk-september/) - Each month, The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA) uses a unique machine-learning model to predict those publications most relevant to existential risk or global catastrophic risk. The following are a selection of those papers identified this month - 21 papers. Please note that we provide these citations and abstracts as a service to aid other researchers
- [BBC Science Focus: Mass extinction: Can we stop it?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-science-focus/) - BBC Science Focus' front page cover-story on Mass extinction: Can we stop it? quotes Lauren Holt and Simon Beard extensively. "So in a future mass extinction, it’s probably the smaller generalists that will come out on top. But there’s a good chance that we humans will also have a say in what lives and dies,
- [CSER Public Lecture: Grethe Helene Evjen](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-public-lecture-grethe-helene-evjen/) - Svalbard Global Seed Vault – Saving Seeds for Eternity Grethe Helene Evjen is a Senior Advisor at the Norwegian Ministry of Agriculture and Food. She will discuss her role in establishing and coordinating the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, and its global role in providing for future food security and sustainable agriculture. She works on the
- [Martin Rees Public Lecture: Surviving the Century (Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-public-lecture-surviving-century-perim/) - In his public lecture at Perimeter on October 2, 2019, Sir Martin Rees (UK Astronomer Royal) explored how advances in biotech, cyber-technology, robotics, and space exploration could allow for a bright future for humanity, as well as the very real risks we face as a society.
- [Zia Mian: A Conceivable Horizon of Horror (Public Lecture video)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/zia-mian-conceivable-horizon-horror/) - Zia Mian - A Conceivable Horizon of Horror: Current Crises of Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament (30 October 2019, CSER Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) Zia Mian is a physicist and co-director of Princeton University's Program on Science and Global Security, part of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, where he has
- [Grethe Helene Evjen: Svalbard Global Seed Vault - Saving Seeds for Eternity (Public Lecture video)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/grethe-helene-evjen-svalbard-global-seed-vault-sav/) - Grethe Helene Evjen - Svalbard Global Seed Vault: Saving Seeds for Eternity (18 November 2019, CSER Public Lecture, University of Cambridge) Grethe Helene Evjen is a Senior Advisor at the Norwegian Ministry of Agriculture and Food. She will discuss her role in establishing and coordinating the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, and its global role in
- [8 Recent Publications on Existential Risk (November 2019 update)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/8-recent-publications-existential-risk-november-20/) - Each month, The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA) uses a unique machine-learning model to predict those publications most relevant to existential risk or global catastrophic risk. The following are a selection of those papers identified this month. Please note that we provide these citations and abstracts as a service to aid other researchers in paper
- [BBC: Brian Cox interviews Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-brian-cox-interviews-martin-rees/) - Professor Martin Rees talks to Professor Brian Cox about one of his heroes, Joseph Rotblat, a physicist on the Manhattan Project, who later became a leading advocate of peace and disarmament. Watch full episode
- [8 Recent Publications on Existential Risk (December 2019 update)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/recent-publications-december-2019/) - Each month, The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA) uses a unique machine-learning model to predict those publications most relevant to existential risk or global catastrophic risk. The following are a selection of those papers identified this month. Please note that we provide these citations and abstracts as a service to aid other researchers in paper
- [Martin Rees: Lessons for a Young Scientist](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-lessons-young-scientist/) - Martin Rees wrote an article for Nautilus: "I sometimes worry that many who would enjoy a scientific career are put off by a narrow and outdated conception of what’s involved. The word “scientist” still conjures up an unworldly image of an Einstein lookalike (male and elderly) or else a youthful geek. There’s still too little
- [Not Cool podcast: Ellen Quigley and Natalie Jones on defunding the fossil fuel industry](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/not-cool-podcast-ellen-quigley-and-natalie-jones-d/) - Defunding the fossil fuel industry is one of the biggest factors in addressing climate change and lowering carbon emissions. But with international financing and powerful lobbyists on their side, fossil fuel companies often seem out of public reach. On Not Cool episode 24, Ariel Conn is joined by Ellen Quigley and Natalie Jones, who explain why that’s not the case,
- [Doomsday Clock 2020](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/doomsday-clock-2020/) - In 2003, the co-founder of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), Lord Martin Rees, declared it his opinion that humanity’s chances of making it through the 21st century were 50:50. At the time this was considered a remarkably pessimistic claim. Now, 20 years in, it seems increasingly optimistic. The Bulletin of the
- [Telegraph: Why air travel makes a global pandemic the biggest threat to humankind](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/telegraph-air-travel-global-pandemic/) - The Telegraph wrote an article on the risk of pandemics:
- [12 Publications: Update on our research](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/12-publications-update-our-research/) - In the three months from November to January CSER published six peer reviewed academic papers and six reports on the nature, ethics and governance of existential risk as we begin to utilise new methods from our developing science of global risk. Firstly a team of researchers led by Gorm Shackelford (and also including CSER researchers
- [10 Recent Publications on Existential Risk (January 2020 update)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/recent-publications-existential-risk-january-2020/) - Each month, The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA) uses a unique machine-learning model to predict those publications most relevant to existential risk or global catastrophic risk. The following are a selection of those papers identified this month. Please note that we provide these citations and abstracts as a service to aid other researchers in paper
- [Future Generations Bill is “the start of a movement”](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/future-generations-bill-start-movement/) - CSER is supporting the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Future Generations and the Big Issue’s Today for Tomorrow campaign. The Bill draws on CSER research, including the paper Representation of future generations in United Kingdom policy-making. The campaign for a Future Generations Bill was also covered in: i news, The House, The Guardian, and The Financial Times. The APPG for Future Generations AGM
- [CSER Public Lecture: Rachel Bronson](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/cser-public-lecture-rachel-bronson/) - Rachel Bronson is President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. She will discuss the new 2020 Doomsday Clock time. Previously she worked at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs , the Council on Foreign Relations, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and
- [Call for papers: Evaluating Progress in AI](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/call-papers-evaluating-progress-ai/) - Deadline for paper submissions: March 20th Call for papers for the first 'Evaluating Progress in AI' workshop to be held at the 2020 European Conference on AI. They are seeking theoretical and experimental papers on topics relevant to measuring progress, developing benchmarks, characterising milestones in AI, as well as forecasting of societal impacts of AI
- [Newsweek: Rhodes on COVID-19](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/newsweek-rhodes-covid-19/) - Catherine Rhodes was interviewed by Newsweek.
- [Climate change is a catastrophe. But is it an ‘existential threat’?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/climate-change-catastrophe/) - Simon Beard was interviewed by Grist. With the Doomsday Clock ticking closer to midnight, “existential” is becoming the word of our times, encompassing a wide variety of apocalyptic anxieties. Especially those surrounding climate change. During last week’s Democratic debate in South Carolina, climate change barely got a hearing, but Bernie Sanders did manage to call it an “existential
- [New Lecture Video Doomsday Clock explained](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/new-video-doomsday-clock-explained/) - Explained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' President and CEO, Rachel Bronson, in this Public Lecture for the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. What does 'Midnight' mean? What goes into assessing the Doomsday Clock time? And how confident should we be in that time? Rachel Bronson
- [Radio 4: The Cathedral Thinkers](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/radio-4-cathedral-thinkers/) - Dr Simon Beard was interviewed by Ian Samson on longtermist, cathedral thinking and cathedral projects. The concept of cathedral thinking can be traced back to medieval times. Architects and stone-masons would begin construction on great cathedrals and places of worship, knowing they would never see work completed within their own lifetimes. In our uncertain age
- [Martin Rees on Sean Carroll podcast](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/martin-rees-sean-carroll-podcast/) - Sean Carroll interviewed Martin Rees on his podcast. "Anyone who has read histories of the Cold War, including the Cuban Missile Crisis and the 1983 nuclear false alarm, must be struck by how incredibly close humanity has come to wreaking incredible destruction on itself. Nuclear war was the first technology humans created that was truly capable of causing such
- [Guardian: UK pandemic strategy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/guardian-uk-pandemic-strategy/) - Our Executive Director, Dr Catherine Rhodes, was quoted in the Guardian on UK pandemic preparedness: Catherine Rhodes had been scheduled to give evidence to the MPs’ inquiry. She said the UK had had fairly good pandemic planning in place. “There does, however, seem to have been a significant gap between recognition of the risk and
- [COVID-19 update](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/covid-19-update/) - The staff of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, like most of the staff of the University of Cambridge, are working remotely until the University and Government advises otherwise. Our thoughts are with our friends and colleagues around the world working hard to respond to COVID-19; and those affected physically, psychologically and economically
- [7 Recent Publications on Existential Risk (February 2020 update)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/recent-publications-feb-2020/) - Each month, The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA) uses a unique machine-learning model to predict those publications most relevant to existential risk or global catastrophic risk. The following are a selection of those papers identified this month. Please note that we provide these citations and abstracts as a service to aid other researchers in paper
- [2 Recent Publications on Existential Risk (March 2020 update)](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/recent-publications-mar-2020/) - Each month, The Existential Risk Research Assessment (TERRA) uses a unique machine-learning model to predict those publications most relevant to existential risk or global catastrophic risk. The following are a selection of those papers identified this month. Please note that we provide these citations and abstracts as a service to aid other researchers in paper
- [Four Month Report October 2019 - January 2020](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/four-month-report-oct-jan/) - Note this report was written in February, before many COVID-19 changes. We have attempted to indicate which events and recruitment has been postponed, but may not have caught every reference. This report covers the period October - January 2020 and outlines our activities and future plans. Highlights of the last four months include: Publication of
- [Do We Really Need to Send Humans into Space?](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/do-we-really-need-send-humans-space/) - Do We Really Need to Send Humans into Space?Automated spacecraft cost far less; they’re getting more capable every year; and if they fail, nobody dies "What future lies ahead for humans in space? Last year, the 50th anniversary of the first moon landing found a host of private and governmental projects that aim to send
- [BBC: The green sludge that could transform our diets](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/bbc-green-sludge-could-transform-our-diets/) - The BBC wrote an article, with an interview with Asaf Tzachor, based on his research including his paper The Future of Feed: Integrating Technologies to Decouple Feed Production from Environmental Impacts. Microalgae is rich in protein, amino acids, fatty acids, and vitamins. Should we all be eating it? “Our global food system fails on its most
- [AAAS News: Biosecurity Policies Benefit from Experimentation](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/aaas-news-biosecurity/) - AAAS News covered a paper in Science, Embrace experimentation in biosecurity governance, based on a workshop we ran in 2019. Biological science and its applications are rapidly evolving, and to keep up with emerging security concerns, their governance should be as well. But due to the rapid pace of change in biological research, the current political
- [Daily Mirror: What Labour's new leader must do now](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/daily-mirror-labour-leader/) - Haydn Belfield wrote a short piece for the Daily Mirror's Oliver Milne on 'What Labour's new leader must do now - six experts give their verdict on party's future', alongside General Secretary of the Trades Union Congress Frances O'Grady and CBI Deputy Director-General Josh Hardie. "Coronavirus has brought the UK – the world – to a standstill.
- [Study identifies 275 ways to reduce spread of coronavirus following lockdown](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/study-275-ways/) - Phased re-opening of schools, businesses and open spaces should be considered alongside a range of practical ways to keep people physically apart, say the authors of a new study on how lockdown can be eased without a resurgence of coronavirus infections. Policy makers and practitioners must decide which strategies are appropriate to phase in at
- [Global AI experts suggest steps towards trustworthy AI development](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/towards-trustworthy-ai/) - Leading researchers co-author unique report proposing ten mechanisms for more AI developers to make more verifiable claims 58 experts on the technical and policy aspects of AI have jointly authored a ground-breaking report – proposing ten detailed, concrete steps AI companies should take to move towards trustworthy AI development. “In order for AI developers to

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## Team

- [David Krueger](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/david-krueger/) - David Krueger is an Assistant Professor of Machine Learning at the University of Cambridge. His work focuses on reducing the risk of human extinction from artificial intelligence (AI x-risk) through technical research as well as education, outreach, governance, and advocacy. His research spans many areas of Deep Learning, AI Alignment, AI Safety, and AI Ethics,
- [Juan P. Aparicio](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/juan-p-aparicio/) - Juan P. Aparicio is particularly interested in how institutions can better assess and respond to the opportunities and risks of frontier AI, and values the chance to engage with CSER’s interdisciplinary community on these questions. His background is in economics and public policy, with a focus on research, policy, and social impact. Juan is especially
- [Iley Froehlich](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/iley-froehlich/) - Iley Froehlich will be working on the topic of moral (bio)enhancement, exploring the potential and associated risks of novel biotechnological interventions that aim to improve morality in order to prevent endogenous existential threats. Drawing on the philosophy of Günther Anders, a founding figure in the study of nuclear and existential risks and a pioneer in
- [Catherine Rhodes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/catherine-rhodes/) - Dr Catherine Rhodes will be working on various collaborative projects with the CSER team over the next year, including editorial work for a new handbook on global catastrophic risks, and papers exploring various aspects of systems approaches to governance of GCRs, such as what value more formal integration of systems thinking might add to the
- [Lara Mani](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/lara-mani/) - Lara was an Assistant Research Professor at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER). Her research seeks to understand the efficacy of various communication methods and strategies for gaining traction for the mitigation and prevention of global catastrophic risks (GCRs). With a background in volcanic risk studies, Lara's research at CSER also explores
- [Anthony Torres-Ruesta](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/anthony-torres-ruesta/) - Dr Anthony Torres-Ruesta is a Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, where his work examines the equity challenges and dual-use implications arising from the use of AI for epidemic and pandemic preparedness and response. His research sits at the intersection of infectious disease science,
- [Laura Elmer](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/laura-elmer/) - Laura is the Communications and Events Co-ordinator at CSER. She manages external communications for the Centre such as social media, newsletter and website and organises a variety of events for the Centre including workshops, seminars and public lectures. Since joining the University in 2014, Laura has worked in various departments across the University and has a
- [Barbara Grewe](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/barbara-grewe/) - Ms. Barbara Grewe is currently a Cambridge Better Futures Scholar based at Jesus College. She is examining the intersection of national security, economic security, and cybersecurity and developing a framework for governments to better address cyber-related issues as a national and economic security issue. She intends to draw on the lessons learned from the 9/11
- [Cecil Abungu](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/cecil-abungu/) - Cecil Abungu is a PhD student at the University of Cambridge, Coordinator of the ILINA Program and Research Affiliate with the Legal Priorities Project. Cecil also serves as an advisor at the AI Futures Fellowship and lecturer at Strathmore Law School. Cecil’s recent research has focused on the role of developing countries in global catastrophic
- [James Ginns](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/james-ginns/) - James is the Head of Risk Management Policy at the Centre for Long-Term Resilience. He was previously Chief Risk Officer of Cathay Pacific, and has held a number of other senior leadership positions at the Swire Group. As well as having significant risk management expertise in the private sector, James has extensive experience in the
- [Maurice Chiodo](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/maurice-chiodo/) - Maurice addresses the ethical challenges and risks posed by mathematics, mathematicians, and mathematically-powered technologies. His research looks at the ethical issues arising in all types of mathematical work, including AI, finance, modelling, surveillance, and statistics. He set up the Ethics in Mathematics Project in 2016 and has been its principal investigator since then, delivering seminar
- [Sarah Dryhurst](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sarah-dryhurst/) - Sarah Dryhurst is a Senior Research Fellow at the UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction. Her background is in psychology and ecology, and her current research forms part of the EU RiskPACC project, focusing on developing and evaluating co-created solutions to build disaster resilience by bridging the risk perception action gap between citizens and
- [Colum Finnegan](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/colum-finnegan/) - Dr. Colum Finnegan is a philosopher of cognitive science and technology specializing in the intersections of human mind formation, epistemic security, and global catastrophic risk. Based at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), his research investigates how the architectural and incentive structures of modern technologies—from social media to Large Language Models (LLMs)—shape
- [Constantin Arnscheidt](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/constantin-arnscheidt/) - Dr. Constantin Arnscheidt was a Research Associate at CSER from 2023 to 2026. Constantin's research focused on understanding systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk (GCR). Key publications from this time are listed below: C. W. Arnscheidt, S. Beard, T. Hobson, P. Ingram, L. Kemp, L. Mani, A. Marcoci, K. Mbeva, S. S. Ó hÉigeartaigh, A.
- [Thomas Moynihan](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/thomas-moynihan/) - Thomas is author of X-Risk: How Humanity Discovered its Own Extinction (MIT Press, 2020). He works on the history of ideas, primarily the ways humanity’s estimation of its biggest picture priorities—that is, the greatest perils and potentials facing our species—has transformed throughout the past, in response to cumulating knowledge about the wider universe. It is
- [Tom Hobson](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/tom-hobson/) - Tom Hobson is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, and an independent consultant working on biosecurity and emerging technology risk. His work focuses on the governance of biological threats, dual-use research, and the assessment and management of technology-driven risks. He has contributed to academic research, policy
- [Julius Weitzdörfer](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/julius-weitzdorfer/) - Julius has a background in disaster law, environmental law, nuclear law, and East Asia, especially regarding technology policy, risk governance, and crisis management. Between 2013 and 2019, he was an Affiliated Lecturer at the Faculty of Law, a Fellow and Director of Studies in Law at Darwin College, and a CSER Research Associate working under
- [Bilal-Imran Asghar](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/bilal-imran-asghar/) - Bilal has a background in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) from King's College London, and has written about topics ranging from geopolitical risk to disaster resilience. He has worked on strategic foresight, futures methods, and strategic planning in the context of emergency services in the UK, and is currently contributing to a project studying cascading
- [Shahar Avin](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/shahar-avin/) - Shahar’s research examines challenges and opportunities in the implementation of risk mitigation strategies, particularly in areas involving high uncertainty and heterogenous or conflicting interests and incentives. Mixing anthropological methods and agent-based modelling, Shahar works with other CSER researchers and others in the X-risk community to identify and design opportunities for impact. He completed his doctoral
- [Vanessa Burns](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/vanessa-burns/) - Dr Vanessa Burns is a political scientist with research interests in resilience and adaptation to climate change, extreme climate change, environmental governance, and environmental justice. Her work is interdisciplinary, speaking to work in law, policy, and the natural sciences. Dr Burns’ independent research focuses on climate change in the Coral Triangle and the South Pacific.
- [Emma Patten](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/emma-patten/) - Emma is the Postgraduate Coordinator for the MPhil in Global Risk and Resilience, where she supports students and manages key programme operations. She has the benefit of many years of experience in further and higher education providing academic support and programme administration. Her professional interests include postgraduate education and enhancing the student experience. She holds
- [Sophie Cray](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sophie-cray/) - Sophie is the Postgraduate Coordinator for the MPhil in Global Risk and Resilience. She has a broad background in Anthropology and Sociology which further led to her Master's in Gastronomy. Her experience varies from being a Personal Assistant at Oxford University to interning with the World Food Programme in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
- [Pablo Suarez](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/pablo-suarez/) - Pablo Suarez is a system dynamics modeler turned humanitarian worker, innovator, game designer, and creator of serious-yet-fun processes for collaborative processes to inspire thinking and action. He is innovation lead at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and artist in residence at the National University of Singapore. Pablo holds a water engineering degree, a master’s in
- [Yee Kuang Heng](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/yee-kuang-heng/) - Yee Kuang works on national risk assessment exercises and capacity-building for futures literacy in governments such as the UK and Singapore, particularly on climate change and AI risks. He is Professor at the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Public Policy, and previously taught at Trinity College Dublin, the University of St Andrews, and the
- [Yasmine Rix](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/yasmine-rix/) - Yasmine is working towards the curation and delivery of an exhibition on existential risk in collaboration with CSER at the Alison Richard Building in 2019. She has a background in arts philanthropy and sponsorship having completed an MA in Museum Studies from University of Leicester.
- [Vaska Atta-Darkua](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/vaska-atta-darkua/) - Primary contact: Ellen Quigley Vaska is a Visiting Researcher with the Climate Risk & Sustainable Finance group at CSER. She holds a BSc in International Economics from the University of Essex, an MPhil in Finance and a PhD in Finance from Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. Prior to returning to full-time education for her MPhil
- [Tom Cernev](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/tom-cernev/) - Tom has degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Theoretical Physics from the University of Adelaide, and a Masters in Engineering from the University of Cambridge. He has published on the Sustainable Development Goals and how these relate to global catastrophic risk, and authored a contributing paper to the United Nations Global Assessment Report 2022. He is
- [Tegan Maharaj](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/tegan-maharaj/) - Tegan's research seeks to understand AI systems in realistic settings, in order to ensure their responsible use. At CSER, Tegan examines the use of AI in forecasting and mitigating risk. Tegan is an Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Information at the University of Toronto, where she is an affiliate of the Schwartz-Reisman and Vector
- [Sumaya Nur](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sumaya-nur/) - Primary contact: Shahar Avin Sumaya Nur’s research interests lie in the intersection of law and artificial intelligence. Sumaya's previous work has concentrated on the regulation of facial recognition algorithms, autonomous weapon systems, China-Africa digital relations and AI liability. Her senior thesis focuses on broadening the causation test in establishing liability for decisions made by self-learning
- [Stephen Cave](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/stephen-cave/) - Professor Stephen Cave is Academic Director of the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence (CFI) and Co-Director of the Institute for Technology and Humanity, both at the University of Cambridge. Stephen earned a PhD in Philosophy from Cambridge. He then joined the British Foreign Office, where he served for nearly a decade as a
- [Sophie Dannreuther](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sophie-dannreuther/) - Sophie is the co-founder and Director of the Centre for Long-Term Resilience (CLTR), a non-profit that connects policymakers to leading academics who work on some of the most important long-term challenges of our time. She leads CLTR’s engagement with academics, and its work on institutional decision-making and communicating extreme risks. Sophie has worked across seven government
- [Shivam Patel](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/shivam-patel/) - Shivam works chiefly on the application of AI methods and the use of computation across various academic disciplines. At CSER, he works under the supervision of Dr Shahar Avin and Dr Jess Whittlestone on agent-based simulation of AI research. He also works on developing deep reinforcement-based learning methods to study fair and ethical AI Policy.
- [Shin-Shin Hua](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/shin-shin-hua/) - Shin-Shin Hua is a competition and tech lawyer who has represented clients before the European Commission and other global regulators. She is also a specialist in Public International Law, and has presented and published on the use of machine learning in lethal autonomous weapons. Her current research is focused on how antitrust/competition policy affects the
- [Sarah Woods](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sarah-woods/) - Sarah is an award-winning playwright, creative systems thinker and teacher and currently Associate Professor at the Denmark National School of Performing Arts and Director of the London based think tank New Weather, Fulbright Scholar-in-Residence (2023-4). She will be working with Paul Ingram on their project People & Patterns: transforming the ways we think and connect when
- [Sam Weiss Evans](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sam-weiss-evans/) - Sam was based at CSER for the 2018-2019 academic year to advance his book manuscript and launching a new research programme. His book, tentatively titled Is This a Threat? draws out the ways that societies have come to see science and technology as objects of security concern in the past several centuries, how those ways of
- [Sam Hilton](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sam-hilton/) - Sam Hilton coordinates the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations. He is also Director of Research at Charity Entrepreneurship. During Sam’s 5 years as a Civil Service policy adviser, he worked on a number of long-term issues including leading the team responsible for the UK's civil nuclear safety policy and working in the Treasury's Financial
- [Rumtin Sepasspour](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/rumtin-sepasspour/) - Rumtin is a researcher focused on the policy of existential and global catastrophic risk. He is currently leading a project on building the capability of the existential and global catastrophic risk research community, funded by the Survival and Flourishing Fund. He is also a Board Member of Australia-based Commission for the Human Future. Previously, he
- [Nikita Chiu](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/nikita-chiu/) - Nikita Chiu, PhD, FRSA Dr. Nikita Chiu is Research Fellow in Robotics and Outer Space Affairs at the Centre for Technology and Global Affairs at the University of Oxford. She is also a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge. Her current work examines the impact that emerging technologies
- [Nicholas Evans](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/nicholas-evans/) - Nicholas Evans works on issues related to biological risk, and on autonomous vehicles. He has a background in science and philosophy, receiving a PhD in philosophy from the Australian National University and a Masters in Medical Ethics from the University of Pennsylvania. He is visiting CSER to begin work on his second book, which will
- [Nathaniel Cooke](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/nathaniel-cooke/) - Nathaniel is a researcher and postgraduate student who works on theoretical, systemic, and sociopolitical approaches to existential risk, as well as societal collapse and resilience. He currently focuses on societal resilience to global catastrophes and methods for rigorously modelling extinction risk, in addition to producing an introductory x-risk curriculum. Nathaniel has previously held research roles
- [Nancy Ockendon](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/nancy-ockendon/) - Nancy’s work with CSER involved horizon scanning for risks, and the use of expert assessment to prioritise possible threats. She also works in the Department of Zoology, looking at the use of evidence in conservation practice and policy, as well as running an annual horizon scan of environmental issues. Prior to this Nancy had roles
- [Michelle Malonza](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/michelle-malonza/) - Michelle Malonza is a Research Associate at the ILINA Program under the Studies in Transformative AI (STAI) Project. She was formerly a Research Fellow at the AI Futures Fellowship and has an undergraduate degree in law. Michelle will be spending her time at CSER working on an OpenAI funded research project on how democratic societies
- [Mel Cowans](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/mel-cowans/) - Mel Cowans was a visiting researcher at CSER from 20 February 2023 - 31 March 2024. Mel’s research looked at global catastrophic risk, futures, emerging technologies, and their interactions with contemporary religion. This ranges from the relationships of apocalyptic and millenarian movements to WMDs to techno-eschatological perspectives on ‘deific’ AI and the Singularity. At CSER,
- [Martina Kunz](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/martina-kunz/) - Martina Kunz is a research associate at the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence (CFI). For her PhD (soon to be completed) at the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, she used natural language processing, data science and artificial intelligence to map and evaluate the regulatory techniques and effects of international
- [Laura Bullon-Cassis](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/laura-bullon-cassis/) - Dr. Laura Bullon-Cassis works on youth and future generations’ involvement in local and global governance, with a focus on tracing institutional responses to climate justice movements. She draws on postcolonial, feminist, and anti-racist literature to analyse how the social category of “youth” operates in policy spaces along gendered and racial lines. At CSER, she will
- [Kiana Tomita](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/kiana-tomita/) - Kiana is a Ph.D. student at the Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability (GSAIS), University of Kyoto, Japan. She investigates what methods of communication are effective for disaster prevention at different phases of disasters under several climate change scenarios. Her research explores how to manage future disasters by improving communication, increasing risk
- [Kayla Lucero-Matteucci](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/kayla-matteucci/) - Kayla is a 2021 Marshall Scholar researching applications of AI to environmental problems such as climate change. Through the Marshall, she received an MPhil in Politics and International Studies from Cambridge and is currently pursuing an MSc in Climate Change and International Development at the University of East Anglia. She is interested in research that
- [Julian Huppert](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/julian-huppert/) - Dr Julian Huppert is Founding Director of the Intellectual Forum in Jesus College, Cambridge, and was the Member of Parliament for Cambridge. He is noted for his work in technology policy, being named ‘2013 ‘Internet Hero of the Year’ by ISPA, and was Chair of the Panel of Independent Reviewers for DeepMind Health. He is a Director of the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust Ltd and
- [Judit Gáspár](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/judit-gaspar/) - Judit is an associate professor and Head of the Decision Sciences Department at the Corvinus University of Budapest, lecturing on Decision-Making Skills, Decision Techniques, with research interest in decision-making, strategy-as-practice, foresight, participatory and reflexive methodologies. Judit was/is involved in research programs, e.g., Enhancing Responsible Research and Innovation Through Curricula in Higher Education; Ecological Horizon Scanning:
- [José Hernández-Orallo](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jose-hernandez-orallo/) - José Hernández-Orallo is Professor at the Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain and Senior Research Fellow at the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence, University of Cambridge, UK. He received a B.Sc. and a M.Sc. in Computer Science from UPV, partly completed at the École Nationale Supérieure de l'Électronique et de ses Applications (France), and
- [John Fogle](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/john-fogle/) - John has 20 years of experience in U.S. Air Force Intelligence, with a background in Department of Defense-level cyberspace policy, U.S. Air Force Space Command acquisitions of space and cyber platforms, and inter-Departmental/inter-Agency crisis response planning for U.S. Northern Command. John holds degrees in Political Science from the University of Kentucky and Strategic Intelligence Studies
- [James Christie](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/james-christie/) - James is a geoscientist with an interdisciplinary background centred on volcanic hazards and community-based disaster risk reduction. His research has primarily focussed on the Eastern Caribbean, but he also contributes to projects based in the United States and Guatemala. He has joined CSER on a temporary basis to support the development of our new MPhil
- [Jaime Sevilla](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jaime-sevilla/) - Jaime works as director of Epoch, where he is investigating trends in Machine Learning and topics related to AI and economics. He is also interim director of Riesgos Catastróficos Globales, a science-policy organisation working on improving global risk management in Spanish-Speaking countries. His past work relates to technological forecasting, where he has led investigations about
- [Jacob Nyokabi](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jacob-nyokabi/) - Jacob works on the capacity of fragile states to respond to global catastrophic risks. He has a background in international security and development including with the Political Affairs Divisions of the United Nations Peacekeeping Missions in Mali and the Central African Republic as well as a PhD in leadership studies with reference to security and
- [Greta Hauer](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/greta-hauer/) - Greta Hauer is a design researcher and policy analyst working through speculative practices, often using the construction of narratives, artefacts, and enactments to inform imaginaries of alternative futures. She is working at the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, alongside a team of foresight, design, and behavioural insights, linking scientific knowledge with policymaking to address emerging
- [Gordon Woo](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/gordon-woo/) - Dr. Gordon Woo is a catastrophist, with research interests in all manner of catastrophes. He is the author of the books 'The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes' and 'Calculating Catastrophe', published by World Scientific Press. For the past decade, he has focused on searching for ways of tracking surprising Black Swan events, and this has led
- [Gideon Futerman](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/gideon-futerman/) - Primary contact: SJ Beard Gideon Futerman's research interests primarily lie in the interaction of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM/Solar Geoengineering) and Existential Risk, both assessing how SRM increases and decreases risk, with particular reference to the impacts of near term actions, researching this through the RESILIENCER Project. At CSER, Gideon will primarily be working on scenarios
- [Georgiana Gilgallon](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/georgiana-gilgallon/) - Georgiana (Gigi) is the Director of Communications at the Future of Life Institute, an independent nonprofit that seeks to reduce large-scale, extreme risks from transformative technologies. Her focus in this role is improving media narratives around extreme threats to constructively influence society's perceptions of these risks, and thus increase its willingness to support mitigation efforts.
- [Francesco Bertolotti](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/francesco-bertolotti/) - Francesco is a postdoctoral researcher who specialized in designing dynamical models of complex systems for problem-solving and prediction activities, with a particular emphasis on agent-based models. His primary research focuses on utilizing simulations and agent-based modeling to uncover the underlying mechanisms driving changes in risk preferences. This work aims at contributing to a better understanding
- [Emily Bugden](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/emily-bugden/) - Emily works on Climate Risk & Sustainable Finance at CSER, as well as supporting Dr Quigley in her role as Advisor to the Chief Financial Officer (Responsible Investment). Previously, she worked on climate finance at the European Climate Foundation. Emily holds an MSc in Nature, Society, and Environmental Policy from the University of Oxford and
- [Elizabeth Cooper](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/elizabeth-cooper/) - Elizabeth currently works as the Deputy Director the Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative. In this she provides research, operations, and planning support to academic groups around the world and collaborates with groups and individuals in x-risk field-building. At CSER, Elizabeth will work closely with the management team on fundraising, diversity and inclusion, and field-building initiatives. She
- [Effie Amanatidou](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/effie-amanatidou/) - Triggered by her participation in the SIMMER project, Effie is interested in exploring new methodologies for participatory foresight instigating more empathy and care and more innovative methods of engagement, expression and reflection (theatre, gaming, role-playing, etc.). Effie is a Honorary Senior Research Fellow at Manchester Institute of Innovation Research / University of Manchester (UK). She
- [Lena Trabucco](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/lena-trabucco/) - Lena is a postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for Military Studies at the University of Copenhagen. Her research examines the intersection of international security, international law, and emerging military technologies. During her time at CESR, Lena will explore artificial intelligence in NATO policy and the broader international security environment. Lena holds a PhD in international
- [Alexander Saeri](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/alexander-saeri/) - Alexander works to increase the reach and impact of behaviour science on the world’s most pressing problems. He uses a mix of applied behaviour science and social science methods to understand and address complex challenges, including climate change, pandemics, and artificial intelligence. He is especially interested in identifying “WHO needs to do WHAT differently” in
- [Di Cooke](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/di-cooke/) - Di Cooke is a Visiting Fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as well as a Research Affiliate at CSER and at the Centre for the Governance of AI. Di's work focuses on AI risks and governance in a defence context, along with the impact of AI on
- [Daikichi Seki](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/daikichi-seki/) - Daikichi works on the risk assessment of catastrophic huge solar flares called super-flares and the predictability of solar flares by ground-based telescopes. He has a background in solar physics and disaster prevention, including as a Research Fellowship for Young Scientists DC1 of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and a Master’s degree in
- [Craig Needham](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/craig-needham/) - Whilst working in the Operations Room of HM Coastguard, Craig wanted to advance his undergraduate emergency management studies which took him to complete a masters in Disaster Management with Bournemouth University Disaster Management Centre. For his dissertation, the concepts of cascading risk and system failure were applied to explore the relationships between space-based position, navigation
- [Coleman Snell](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/coleman-snell/) - Coleman Snell is completing his undergraduate degree at Cornell University in Applied Ethics and Behavioral Psychology. Coleman runs the 21st Talks Podcast and Youtube channel where he interviews experts from x-risk and other related fields. Coleman also works as a researcher and office manager at Cornell's Long-term Artificial Intelligence Safety Lab (LAISR), where he conducts research into
- [Christian Wilson](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/christian-wilson/) - Christian is a Research Assistant in Climate Risk & Sustainable Finance where he works with CSER on addressing climate change in the investment policies and practices of institutional investors. He also works at ShareAction as a Researcher and has a background as an investment analyst in emerging markets. Christian holds a B.A. in Economics and an MSc
- [Christian R. Boehm](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/christian-boehm/) - Christian works at the interface of modern biotechnology and digital change. His current research is focused on benefits and risk management of synthetic biology in context of automation, digital change, and artificial intelligence. Christian has a background in molecular biology, computer science, and scientific policy advice, and has founded the nonprofit organisation EUSynBioS to raise
- [Caroline Baylon](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/caroline-baylon/) - Caroline Baylon works on the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations, which is co-running an inquiry on long-termism in policy and a workshop series on autonomous weapons. Caroline serves as Research Lead in AXA's Strategy, Research and Threat Horizon team, within an internal think tank looking at future trends in cyber security, AI and technology.
- [Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/blaise-mafuko-nyandwi/) - Dr Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi is a Senior Lecturer at the School of Volcanology and Disaster Risk Management at the University of Goma with a background in environmental geology. His research seeks to understand the interaction between humans and natural environment in the framework of mitigating natural hazards impacts. Through a multidisciplinary lens, encompassing geosciences, and social
- [Beth Barnes](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/beth-barnes/) - Beth founded FuSe (Future of Sentience), a student society focusing on improving the long-run future, while studying Computer Science at the University of Cambridge. She has a particular interest in machine learning.
- [Bertrand Guillaume](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/bertrand-guillaume/) - Bertrand was educated at the Ecole Normale Supérieure and at the Paris Institute of Technology, where he received his Ph.D. He is now an Associate Professor of Epistemology and History of Science and Technology at the Troyes University of Technology, where he successively served as the director of the Research Centre for Environmental Studies and
- [Benoît Pelopidas](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/benoit-pelopidas/) - Professor Benoît Pelopidas is the founding director of the Nuclear Knowledges program (formerly chair of excellence in security studies) at Sciences Po (CERI). His program, “Nuclear Knowledges”, is the first independent scholarly research program on the nuclear phenomenon in France. He is also an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at
- [Ben Holt](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/ben-holt/) - Ben is the Global Lead for Strategic Foresight at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). This means he helps teams around the world explore possible futures so we can prepare for potential crises, uncover new opportunities for action, and make better decisions today. He is working with CSER to explore
- [Arsène Pierrot-Valroff](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/arsene-pierrot-valroff/) - Arsène works on questions at the interplay between existential risks and complex systems studies; for instance, in a given network of societies, is a local civilizational collapse likely to trigger cascading failures. He has a background in mathematics (Ecole polytechnique, France), and a degree in astrophysics & aerospace engineering (ISAE-Supaéro, France).
- [Angus Mercer](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/angus-mercer/) - Angus is co-founder and Chief Executive of the Centre for Long-Term Resilience, a non-profit that connects policymakers to leading academics who work on some of the most important long-term challenges of our time. A lawyer by training, Angus was formerly Head of External Affairs at the UK Department for International Development, where he also served as
- [Andrew Tanentzap](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/andrew-tanentzap/) - Andrew is Canada Research Chair in Climate Change and Northern Ecosystems at Trent University. He was previously based at the University of Cambridge where he was Professor of Global Change Ecology and led the Ecosystems and Global Change Group in the Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute from 2013 to 2023. He is
- [Andrea Owe](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/andrea-owe/) - Andrea is an environmental moral philosopher and research associate at the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI). She contributes to GCRI’s research on the ethics of global catastrophic risk, artificial intelligence, space exploration, and the long-term future. She has a background in environmental and development studies, environmental philosophy, and fine art, including as a researcher at
- [Amritha Jayanti](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/amritha-jayanti/) - Amritha is currently a Visiting Summer Researcher with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER). She has a background in computer science and public policy, including as a policy researcher at the Brookings Institution's Center for Technology Innovation in Washington D.C., as a product manager for a San Francisco-based startup, and as a
- [Aaron Tang](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/aaron-tang/) - Aaron examines the feasibility, desirability, and governance of last-ditch efforts to address climate change (developing new technologies to pull greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere, and reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth). He is a PhD Scholar and Lecturer in Climate Policy at the Fenner School of Environment & Society at the Australian National University.
- [Freya Jephcott](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/freya-jephcott/) - Freya’s work is primarily concerned with the effectiveness of outbreak response systems in resource-limited settings, and their management in outbreaks of uncertain aetiology. In addition to her research, Freya also participates in applied and policy work on complex health emergencies with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Freya obtained bachelor’s degrees
- [Jessica Bland](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jessica-bland/) - Jessica has a background in science and technology policy, including working at the Dubai Future Foundation, the Royal Society and Nesta. She is interested in bringing technical expertise into public debate through programmes like the World Majlis at Expo 2020. Jessica was principal at School of International Futures until 2021, where she led strategic foresight
- [Alex McLaughlin](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/alex-mclaughlin/) - Alex’s research is in political theory, with a focus on the normative challenges raised by global climate change. His current project explores the scope of protest and resistance in the face of potentially catastrophic climate impacts. Alex spent three years at CSER as a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow, before moving to the University of Exeter,
- [Sabin Roman](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sabin-roman/) - Sabin is currently focused on developing interdisciplinary tools for modelling complex systems using machine learning. At CSER, his emphasis was on the mathematical modelling of long-term societal evolution and potential collapse, having worked on several historical cases of collapse with patterns that generalise to modern society. The methods employed include dynamical systems theory, network science,
- [Magda Osman](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/magda-osman/) - Magda Osman is a cognitive psychologist by training. Her primary areas of expertise are risk analysis, decision-making under risk, dynamic uncertainty, policy decision-making, behavioural interventions, misinformation/disinformation, along with work on folk beliefs on manipulation and the unconscious. She has published over 180 peer reviewed academic articles, and two monographs. She has held positions as a
- [Tom Matthews](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/tom-matthews/) - Tom is a climate scientist and faculty member in the Department of Geography at King’s College London. His research focuses on the planet’s most severe weather and how it is changing with the global climate. These interests have taken Tom to some of the most extreme and rapidly changing environments on Earth, including through his
- [Nancy Connell](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/nancy-connell/) - Dr. Nancy Connell is a Senior Scholar at the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) in the International Networks and Collaborations section of the Division of Policy and Governmental Affairs. Trained in microbial genetics at Harvard, Dr. Connell was an investigator from 1992-2018 in microbial genetics and drug discovery at Rutgers New
- [Pamla Gopaul](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/pamla-gopaul/) - Ms. Pamla Gopaul is the Unit Lead of the Economic Analysis and Foresight and Programme Head of the Africa Policy Bridge Tank at the African Union Development Agency-NEPAD. In this role, she facilitates bridging the knowledge through strategic alignment for effective program implementation, and policy advisory to Governance structures and the AU and African Member
- [Ellen Quigley](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/ellen-quigley/) - Professor Ellen Quigley is Co-Director of Finance for Systemic Change and a Research Professor at the University of Cambridge whose work focuses on building the intellectual and practical foundations of a more sustainable and equitable financial system. To this end, she convenes and advises some of the world’s largest and most influential asset owners to
- [Lalitha Sundaram](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/lalitha-sundaram/) - Lalitha’s research at CSER is in the area of bio-risk, with a particular emphasis on regulation and governance. She investigates risks – real or perceived – surrounding emerging biotechnologies such as synthetic biology. Her current projects are on on evaluating pandemic tabletop exercises, and One Health Biosecurity. Before joining CSER, Lalitha worked within the University
- [Nikol Bobokova](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/nikol-bobokova/) - Nikol has a diverse background that includes experience in start-up companies, NHS teams, and clinical support roles. She has a Bachelor’s degree in Psychology and a Master's degree in Clinical Child Psychology. For diary queries for CSER Director S.M. Amadae, please contact director[at]cser.cam.ac.uk. For all other CSER queries, please direct to enquiries[at]cser.cam.ac.uk.
- [Alana Weir](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/alana-weir/) - Dr. Alana Weir is a Teaching Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, with a focus on disaster risk. Alana's primary research interests include developing effective disaster risk assessment methodologies and partnering with stakeholders at the science-practice-policy interface to enhance disaster risk management. Alana has a background
- [Mike Cassidy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/mike-cassidy/) - Mike is a NERC research fellow specialising in volcano science at the University of Oxford. He a has a background in Earth and Environmental sciences, with degrees from Bristol, Lancaster and Southampton. His work has taken him to volcanoes and research institutions around the world. At CSER he aims to investigate the global catastrophic impacts
- [S.M. Amadae](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/s-m-amadae/) - S.M. Amadae is a tenured political scientist at the University of Helsinki, with a research focus on nuclear war and security, climate change and collective action, and AI’s impact on human’s ability to govern catastrophic risks. She joined CSER as Director in March 2025 from the University of Helsinki. Amadae is completing a book on
- [Haydn Belfield](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/haydn-belfield/) - Haydn was a Research Associate and Academic Project Manager at the University of Cambridge's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk from January 2017 to March 2025. In that time the Centre tripled in size, and he advised the UK, US, and Singaporean governments; the EU, UN and OECD; and leading technology companies. He has
- [Richard Sandford](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/richard-sandford/) - The fields of heritage studies and existential risk have a common interest in understanding risk and the long-term. Notions of the long-term and responsibility are fundamental to heritage, with researchers in heritage studies paying increasing attention to the way concepts such as 'posterity' or 'generations' mediate the relationship of heritage to the future. The changing
- [Fazl Barez](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/fazl-barez/) - Dr Fazl Barez is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Oxford and a leading researcher on technical AI governance. Fazl has contributed to several top-venue papers (e.g. NeurIPS, ICML, ICLR, ACL and EMNLP) and works closely with global partners across academia, industry, and policy on improving transparency and reliability in advanced AI systems
- [Matthijs Maas](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/matthijs-maas/) - Matthijs is a Senior Research Fellow (Law & AI) and Head of AI Research at the Legal Priorities Project; a Research Affiliate at CSER, and a non-residential research associate at King’s College, University of Cambridge. His work focuses on mapping theories of change for long-term AI governance. He is the author of the Open-Access 'Architectures
- [Rebecca Anselmetti](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/rebecca-anselmetti/) - Rebecca Anselmetti is a research strategy manager at the AI Security Institute, where she works on advancing societal resilience to the risks posed by frontier AI systems. Previously, she worked on frontier AI governance and regulation within the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology. As part of her roles in the UK government, she worked
- [Lance Gharavi](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/lance-gharavi/) - Lance Gharavi is a transdisciplinary artist and scholar, Professor in the School of Music, Dance and Theatre at Arizona State University, and Associate Director of ASU’s Interplanetary Initiative. His work focuses on intersections between performance, science, technology, and religion. He specializes in leading transdisciplinary teams of artists, scientists, designers, and engineers on projects to advance
- [Wilmot James](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/wilmot-james/) - Dr. Wilmot James joined Brown University in March 2023 as Professor of Practice in Health Policy, Services and Practice and Senior Advisor for Pandemics and Global Health Security at the School of Public Health. Prior to his appointment, he was a Senior Research Scholar at the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy (ISERP)
- [Lauren Holt](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/lauren-holt/) - Lauren was part of the bio-risk focus area of CSER, covering topics as diverse as bioweapons to food security. Initially, she worked on how chronic diseases (including those that are communicable) can represent an understudied source of catastrophic risk, a topic that is ever more prescient post COVID-19. She moved into studying how ecological collapse
- [Carl Feinberg](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/carl-feinberg/) - Carl Feinberg is a serial entrepreneur, investor, and philanthropist. Carl is the Founder and Managing Partner of Karellen Capital LLC, and Principal of Stride Capital LLC. Mr. Feinberg was the Founder and CEO of Relational Architects International (RAI), an enterprise software vendor acquired by Broadcom whose products are part of the fabric of modern commerce.
- [Lord Martin Rees](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/martin-rees/) - Lord Martin Rees is the Astronomer Royal. He founded the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk with Huw Price and Jaan Tallinn. He is a Fellow of Trinity College and Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics at the University of Cambridge. He was formerly the Master of Trinity College and President of the Royal Society. He has extensive experience
- [Clare Arnstein](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/clare-arnstein/) - Clare is the Centre Co-ordinator and primary point of contact for CSER. She provides comprehensive administrative support for the day-to-day operations of the centre, including human resources, recruitment, financial monitoring, grant expenditure, and reporting. Clare also oversees events, communications, and social media, and supports the administration of CSER’s Global Risk and Resilience MPhil programme. In
- [Yuval Noah Harari](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/yuval-noah-harari/) - Professor Yuval Noah Harari is a historian, philosopher, and the bestselling author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. He has produced two illustrated book series, bringing the ideas of Sapiens to a wider audience, including children. His books have sold
- [Charlotte Hammer](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/charlotte-hammer/) - Dr Charlotte Hammer is Assistant Professor at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, where she also serves as Course Director for the MPhil in Global Risk and Resilience. She is a Fellow of Downing College. Charlotte specialises in outbreak science, pandemic preparedness, and health security. The primary goal of her
- [SJ Beard](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/s-j-beard/) - SJ Beard is an emerging research leader in the transdisciplinary field of Existential Risk Studies. Their work covers a wide range of topics, with a particular focus on the evaluation and mitigation of systemic contributions to global catastrophic and existential risk. They have published research into the ethics of future generations; methods to study extreme, low
- [Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sean-o-heigeartaigh/) - Sean is the Director of the AI: Futures and Responsibility Programme, a joint programme between CSER and the Centre for the Future of Intelligence (CFI) on the global risks and governance of advanced AI. Sean’s work focuses on foresight and governance of frontier AI, as well as the geopolitical implications of advanced AI. He leads
- [Luke Kemp](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/luke-kemp/) - Luke looks at the past (civilization collapses) and future (climate change and emerging technologies) to guide policy in the present. He is an honourary lecturer in environmental policy at the Australian National University (ANU), holds a PhD in international relations from the ANU and was previously a senior economist at Vivid Economics.
- [Hannele Seeck](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/professor-hannele-seeck/) - Professor Seeck is a tenured Professor of Communication Sciences at the Faculty of Engineering Sciences, LUT University, Finland — an institution singularly devoted to the paramount challenge of our time: climate change. She is the founder of the Disinformation, Propaganda & Soft Power Research Laboratory (DPS-Lab), a scholarly endeavour both inherently interdisciplinary and truly global
- [Anastasia Chau](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/anastasia-chau/) - Anastasia researches risk communication for Global Catastrophic Risks and has previously worked in sustainability consulting and for a research project linking gender and policymaking. Anastasia holds a BSc in Economics from King’s College London and has recently graduated with an MSc in Risk, Disasters and Resilience from University College London. She is currently undertaking a PhD
- [Dorien Braam](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/dorien-braam/) - Dr Dorien Braam is an interdisciplinary researcher, strategic advisor and programme coordinator combining academic, policy, and programmatic expertise in addressing One Health challenges in complex emergencies. Currently Director of Praxis Labs research & consulting, lecturer at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), and technical consultant for WHO Health and Migration, she previously
- [Kennedy Mbeva](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/kennedy-mbeva/) - Kennedy Mbeva (PhD) is a Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, at the University of Cambridge. He previously served as a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. Dr Mbeva’s research is on the governance of global catastrophic risk, focusing on geoeconomics and catastrophic climate change.
- [Madhulika Srikumar](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/madhulika-srikumar/) - Madhulika is the Head of the AI Safety Program at Partnership on AI (PAI). PAI is a global non-profit partnership of leading industry, academic, and civil society organizations, advancing best practices in AI governance. Madhulika leads a team that develops best practices through participatory processes to provide actionable guidance for PAI's Partners, inform public policy,
- [Alexandru Marcoci](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/alex-marcoci/) - Alex is an Assistant Professor in Global Risk and Resilience at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk with a focus on AI. He has previously been a Senior Research Associate in AI Risk and Foresight at CSER and a Research Fellow at Clare Hall, as well as an Assistant Professor
- [Rachel Burgess](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/rachel-burgess/) - Rachel is Institute Manager for the Cambridge Institute for Technology and Humanity, which is home to three University Research Centres: The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence and the Centre for Human-inspired AI. Before joining the Institute, Rachel worked in several roles across the School of Arts and Humanities including
- [Hang Vu](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/hang-vu/) - Hang joined the Institute for Technology and Humanity (ITH) in June 2024. The Institute is home to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence (CFI) and the Centre for Human-inspired AI (CHIA). Reporting to the Institute Manager, she is responsible for the day-to-day operation of all aspects of the accounting and
- [Elizabeth Seger](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/elizabeth-seger/) - Elizabeth Seger is a researcher at the Center for the Governance of AI (GovAI) in Oxford where she investigates the real and potential impacts of AI on the production, dissemination, and internalization of information in technologically advanced societies. The aim of Elizabeth's research is to identify specific "epistemic threats" posed by AI technologies, to determine
- [John Burden](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/john-burden/) - John’s research focuses on the challenges of evaluating the capability and generality of AI systems, how these concepts relate to risk posed by the system and how this risk can be mitigated. He has a PhD in Computer Science from the University of York, as well as a Master’s degree in Computer Science from Oriel
- [Aarathi Krishnan](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/aarathi-krishnan/) - Aarathi Krishnan is the founder of RAKSHA Intelligence Futures - the fist woman of color owned and led Advanced Risk Intelligence Firm She is an experienced international aid expert, with almost two decades working directly in fragile, crisis contexts, as well as working with senior decision makers across governments, the UN system and international organizations
- [Rosamunde Almond](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/rosamunde-almond/) - Rosamunde Almond is a Visiting Researcher at CSER and in April 2024, she will join the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre in Cambridge as Deputy Head of Science. A ‘red’ thread’ running through her career as a conservation scientist has been to inspire change with science and she has lead, managed and
- [Jaan Tallinn](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jaan-tallinn/) - Jaan Tallinn is a founding engineer of Skype and Kazaa. He founded the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk with Huw Price and Martin Rees. He is also a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute and philanthropically supports other existential risk research organizations. He is also a partner at Ambient Sound Investments (asi.ee), an active angel investor, and
- [Huw Price](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/huw-price-2/) - Huw Price was Bertrand Russell Professor of Philosophy and a Fellow of Trinity College at the University of Cambridge. He co-founded the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk in 2012 with Martin Rees and Jaan Tallinn. He was also Academic Director of the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence. Before moving to Cambridge
- [Matthew Connelly](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/matthew-connelly/) - Professor Matthew Connelly was Director of CSER from July 2023 to January 2025. He is currently the Vice Dean for AI Initiatives and professor of international and global history at Columbia University. From 2009-2013, Matthew directed the Hertog Global Strategy Initiative, a research program on the history and future of planetary threats, including nuclear war,
- [Yang Liu](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/yang-liu/) - Yang Liu 劉 洋 is a Leverhulme Trust Early Career Research Fellow in the Faculty of Philosophy at the University of Cambridge. His research interests include Logic, Decision Theory, and Philosophy of Artificial Intelligence. Prior to Cambridge, he did his PhD in Philosophy at Columbia University. Personal website: https://yliu.net/
- [William Sutherland](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/william-sutherland/) - Professor Bill Sutherland was formerly the Miriam Rothschild Chair of Conservation Biology in the Zoology Department and is an Honorary Fellow of the College. He has written seven books and edited another five. He started as a birdwatcher and his main research interest has been in combining field observations of behaviour with theoretical models to
- [Thomas Homer-Dixon](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/thomas-homer-dixon/) - Thomas Homer-Dixon is founder and Executive Director of the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University in Victoria, British Columbia. Born in Victoria, he received his BA in political science from Carleton University and, in 1989, his PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in international relations, defense policy, and conflict theory. For nearly two decades,
- [Tatsuya Amano](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/tatsuya-amano/) - Tatsuya is currently a ARC Future Fellow at the University of Queensland. He was a Research Associate, whose project aimed to assess the likelihood of catastrophic ecosystem shifts causing existential risks through statistical modelling based on both empirical data and expert knowledge. He has a background in ecology and conservation biology, and his primary research
- [Taniel Yusef](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/taniel-yusef/) - Taniel is a researcher and advocate working on various portfolios at the UN, European and UK parliaments, with an emphasis on disarmament. She specifically focusses on weapons technology regulation, (ai, nuclear weapons, outer space threats and cyber-security), as well as supply chain, global trade, development, emerging economies and gender. Taniel has a number of roles
- [Susan Owens](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/susan-owens/) - Prof Susan Owens is Emeritus Professor of Environment and Policy and Fellow Emerita of Newnham College and has researched and published widely in the field of environmental governance. Her current projects are concerned with relations between science and politics, and with the role of argument, evidence, ideas and advice in policy formation and change.
- [Seth Baum](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/seth-baum/) - Seth is the Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI). He leads GCRI’s planning and management and contributes to GCRI’s research. He is also a Research Scientist at the Blue Marble Space Institute of Science and an Affiliate Researcher at the Columbia University Center for Research on Environmental Decisions.
- [Ross Gruetzemacher](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/ross-gruetzemacher/) - Ross is the Executive Director of the Transformative Futures Institute, an Assistant Professor of Business Analytics at Wichita State University and a Foresight Institute Fellow. He works on forecasting and foresight methods related to technological progress and existential risk. His primary research focus is on the development and impacts of transformative AI. Ross completed
- [Robert Doubleday](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/robert-doubleday/) - Rob Doubleday has been Executive Director of the Centre for Science and Policy (CSaP). since September 2012. Previously Rob established CSaP's research programme. His research interests include the role of science, evidence and expertise in contemporary societies, in particular the relationship between scientific advice, public policy and democracy. His research develops collaborative methods of working
- [Reuben Makomere](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/reuben-makomere/) - Reuben is a University Associate at the University of Tasmania, Faculty of Law. He is also the Africa Programme Lead/Policy and Legal Research Fellow at the International Alliance to Combat Ocean Acidification (OA Alliance) with extensive experience in research, international diplomacy, law, and policy design. In these roles, he is leading research into governance responses
- [Piers Millett](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/piers-millett/) - Piers D. Millett, Ph.D. is Executive Director of the International Biosecurity and Biosafety Initiative for Science (IBBIS). Dr. Millett is a certified biorisk management professional, with a specialization in biosecurity. Dr. Millett was Deputy Head of the Implementation Support Unit for the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), a treaty for which he worked for over a
- [Paul Ingram](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/paul-ingram/) - Paul has several decades experience leading diverse and multicultural teams to impact decisions on existential threats, particularly nuclear war. He was the Executive Director of the transatlantic British American Security Information Council (BASIC) 2007-19, focusing on nuclear deterrence and disarmament issues in the US, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Since 2019 he has worked
- [Patrick Kaczmarek](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/patrick-kaczmarek/) - Patrick's research mostly concerns population ethics and normative uncertainty. His day job is advising major philanthropists.
- [Olaf Corry](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/olaf-corry/) - Olaf works on the environment and the international system, currently focusing on the security implications of potential geoengineering technologies. Previous projects focus on how risk-thinking changes security politics, the role of environmental politics in revolutions and the politics of scientific models. He is Professor of Global Security Challenges at the School of Politics and International
- [Natalie Jones](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/natalie-jones/) - Natalie is a Policy Advisor, Sustainable Energy Supply at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), where she conducts policy advocacy, aiming to influence governments and international institutions on phasing down oil and gas production in a just and equitable manner. Natalie is also an Affiliated Researcher at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). At
- [Mia Sannapureddy](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/mia-sannapureddy/) - Mia is a Research Associate at Jesus College Intellectual Forum, Cambridge working on sustainable finance. Her work is focussed on mitigating climate change and inequality through the investment policies and practices of institutional investors. At CSER, Mia worked in Dr. Ellen Quigley’s sustainable finance team. She produced a variety of research focussed on Universal
- [Mami Mizutori](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/mami-mizutori/) - Mami Mizutori joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan in 1983, where she worked for twenty-seven years, serving among other positions as Director of the United Nations Policy Division, the National Security Policy Division and the Status of US Forces Agreement Division, and Director of the Japan Information and Culture Centre at the Japanese
- [Jochem Rietveld](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jochem-rietveld/) - Jochem worked on the project ‘Lessons from COVID-19’ at CSER. He has a background in academia and has obtained his Ph.D. in International Relations within the Marie Curie Horizon 2020 European Joint Doctorate Programme GEM STONES, in which he studied regional approaches to the Responsibility to Protect. He has academic teaching experience in Political Science
- [Jess Whittlestone](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jess-whittlestone/) - Jess is Head of AI Policy at the Centre for Long-Term Resilience. She was previously a Senior Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the AI: Futures and Responsibility Programme at the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, both at the University of Cambridge.
- [Jake Ainscough](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jake-ainscough/) - Jake is working at the University of Lancaster exploring the use of deliberative methods in climate and energy governance in the UK. The project seeks to build on the UK Climate Assembly and numerous local deliberative exercises, with a focus on how deliberation can be embedded into the policy process. The project is being led by
- [Gorm Shackelford](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/gorm-shackelford/) - Gorm is now a Post-Doctoral Research Associate at the University of Cambridge's Department of Zoology. He is working in collaboration with CSER, Conservation Evidence, and BioRISC (the Biosecurity Research Initiative at St Catharine’s College) to synthesize evidence for the effectiveness of management practices for invasive species. At CSER, he developed an automated method of evidence synthesis, using
- [Elena Kavanagh](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/elena/) - Elena is a researcher specialising in Indigenous peoples' rights and self-determination. Based at the School of Law at University College Cork, Ireland, her current work focuses on integrating Indigenous knowledge into global catastrophic risk governance. During her doctoral studies at the same university, she examined the language rights of Indigenous peoples in the Arctic. Prior
- [Des Browne](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/des-browne/) - Lord Browne of Ladyton Fellow Commoner at St Catharine’s College Des Browne has held a number of ministerial posts. In particular, he was Secretary of State for Defence (2006 – 2008). Currently a member of the House of Lords, Des is also the Vice-Chair of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and Co-founder and current Chair
- [Dennis Müller](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/dennis-muller/) - Dennis is a graduate student of mathematics at RWTH Aachen University, Germany. Before that, he attended Bonn University and obtained his undergraduate degree from Cambridge University. He also has a professional background in software development. Dennis’s current research focuses on ethics in mathematics and operations research. He studies ethical challenges and societal risks related to
- [Clarissa Rios Rojas](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/clarissa-rios-rojas/) - Hi everyone! I am thrilled to introduce myself and share my background and experience, which have always been driven by a passion for science and a desire to positively impact the world. As a science diplomat and government science advisor with a PhD in Molecular Biology and a Master's degree in Biomedicine & Neuroscience, I
- [Catherine Richards](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/catherine-richards/) - During her time at CSER (2020-2022), Catherine’s work focused on developing our understanding of global risks, governance mechanisms and technical solutions in relation to complex critical infrastructure systems. Her work primarily spanned environmental risks, future foods biotechnology and artificial intelligence alongside complementary digital technologies across the water, energy and food sectors as well as the
- [Bonnie Wintle](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/bonnie-wintle/) - Bonnie was a postdoctoral Research Associate at CSER. Her role at CSER was to ‘horizon scan’ for the early identification, management and mitigation of possible extreme risks associated with future technological advances, under the direction of Prof Bill Sutherland (University of Cambridge, Department of Zoology). She is also a postdoctoral affiliate of Newnham College, Cambridge.
- [Belinda Cleeland](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/belinda-cleeland/) - Belinda is the Director of Policy at the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance (SI), a Geneva-based think tank that works to mitigate global catastrophic risks. At SI, she leads the content team to synthesize research and develop policy recommendations for the multilateral system to ensure the safe development of transformative technologies. Originally from Australia,
- [Beatrice Crona](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/beatrice-crona/) - Beatrice is a Professor of Sustainability Science. She is the Science Director at the Stockholm Resilience Center and the Executive Director of the research program Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere housed at the Royal Swedish Academy of Science. She received her PhD in Systems Ecology in 2006, and the first decade of her
- [Asaf Tzachor](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/asaf-tzachor/) - Asaf is an interdisciplinary researcher, practitioner, and educator at the interface of sustainability sciences, emerging technologies, and global risks. He is a Research Affiliate and Former Research Associate in CSER, and an Associate Professor for Sustainability at Reichman University.
- [Allan Dafoe](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/allan-dafoe/) - Allan Dafoe’s mission is to help steer AI for the benefit of all humanity. Allan is lead of the Long-term Strategy and Governance Team at DeepMind; President, Centre for the Governance of AI; Co-Founder, Cooperative AI Foundation; former faculty University of Oxford and Yale. www.allandafoe.com
- [Alexandra Klein](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/alexandra-klein/) - Alexandra researched biological security at CSER, and is currently undertaking a PhD in Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy at University College London. Previously she worked in academic publishing as a Development Editor at the Royal Society of Chemistry. Alexandra holds a BSc (Hons) in Natural Sciences from University of Birmingham with a year
- [Akaraseth Puranasamriddhi](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/akaraseth-puranasamriddhi/) - Akaraseth is a former Research Assistant in Climate Risk & Sustainable Finance at the University of Cambridge. Previously, he worked as a Research Assistant at University College London and University of Oxford, focusing on sustainable energy transitions in sub-Saharan Africa. He also worked as a Climate Change Consultant at United Nations Development Programme - Global
- [Adrian Currie](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/adrian-currie/) - Adrian is currently a Lecturer in the Department of Sociology, Philosophy and Anthropology at Exeter. He was previously a Research Associate at CSER, where he looked at the relationship between the culture of science, and our capacity to understand, predict and mitigate low probability, high impact events. His work was supported by the Templeton
- [CURRENTLY VACANT](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/currently-vacant/) - We are currently recruiting to the Postgraduate Co-ordinator position. Please see the advert here for details if you wish to apply (closing date 1 September 2024). For general MPhil enquiries, please contact education@cser.cam.ac.uk. This mailbox is being monitored by other members of the team while we recruit. We appreciate your patience.
- [Alice Jondorf](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/alice-jondorf/) - Alice is on a part-time secondment to job share with Clare Arnstein as Centre Coordinator. She is combining this with her role as Centre Administrator at the Centre of Development Studies in the Department of POLIS.
- [Laura Akande](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/laura-akande/) - Laura Akande has a background in teaching and administration and joined the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk in July 2023. She will be supporting the team on a temporary basis and is personal assistant to Professor Matt Connelly, CSER Director.
- [Pat Wilson](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/pat-wilson/) - Pat has joined CSER as Temporary PA/Office Manager. Her working life started in the Civil Service; she then moved to the commercial sector and for the past fifteen years she has worked in various University Departments or Colleges in Cambridge. Pat read Classics at Newnham College, Cambridge.
- [Sam Clarke](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/sam-clarke/) - Sam is the Strategy Manager at Centre for the Governance of AI in Oxford. He is responsible for answering high-level questions regarding the Centre's programmes and the overall direction of the organisation. He has a background in computer science and philosophy, and previously worked as a researcher at the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence
- [Ella Lipscombe](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/ella-lipscombe/) - Ella works as a personal assistant to Dr Ellen Quigley and as an administrative assistant within the Sustainable Finance team at CSER.
- [Reka Fogarasi](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/reka-fogarasi/) - Reka is Finance Co-ordinator for the Cambridge Institute for Technology and Humanity. Working alongside the ITH Manager, CSER and CHIA Centre Co-ordinators, and the CFI Research Grants Co-ordinator, Reka supports the financial aspects of active research grants, and implementing University financial policies and procedures. Before joining the centre in 2022, Reka spent five years as
- [Matti Henderson](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/matti-henderson/) - Matti (she/her) works as a personal assistant to Dr Ellen Quigley and as an administrative assistant within the Sustainable Finance team at CSER. Matti has a law degree from the University of Birmingham and is currently undertaking a MSc in Development Policy and Politics.
- [Esmé Booth](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/esme-booth/) - Esmé works as Project Coordinator for CSER’s research projects. She has a background in project management and coordination at the University, and Marketing and Communications within the academic sector.
- [Steven Connor](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/steve-connor/)
- [Annie Bacon](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/annie-bacon/) - Annie provides administrative support for CSER and is focused on the conference and events programme. Annie has a background in marketing communications and worked for Microsoft earlier in her career before moving into the contemporary arts industry, most recently working as a creative producer at Bedford Creative Arts from 2014-2019. Annie works part-time for CSER and
- [Marisela Moreno-Ramirez](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/marisela-moreno-ramirez/) - Marisela is responsible for managing the accounting and financial processes on a daily basis as well as looking after CSER internal financial procedures, reporting and month/year end tasks. She has worked in similar roles at the Medical Library and the Department of Earth Sciences at the University since 2016 as well as limited companies including
- [Siebe Rozendal](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/siebe-rozendal/) - Siebe works on a high-level model to assess different human extinction risks to improve prioritization between different risks. He has an MSc in Strategic Innovation Management and is rounding off his MA in Philosophy at the University of Groningen (Netherlands).
- [Xiyu Ren](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/xiyu-ren/) - Xiyu works as a research assistant with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), while studying as an MPhil in Finance and Economics student funded by St John’s college at the University of Cambridge. She has a background in economics and interdisciplinary research, including as a research assistant at the University of Manchester
- [Stefan Lunte](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/stefan-lunte/) - Stefan is a summer undergraduate research assistant for Dr. Samuel Weiss Evans, a CRASSH Visiting Fellow and Assistant Research Professor at Tufts University. Stefan is assisting Dr. Evans with his research on novel biosecurity governance. Stefan will graduate from Tufts University in May 2020, majoring in International Relations (International Security focus) and German Language &
- [Stephen Hawking](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/stephen-hawking/)
- [Adrian Kent](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/adrian-kent/)
- [Adrian Weller](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/adrian-weller/)
- [Jonathan Doole](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jonathan-doole/) - Jonathan graduated from the University of Copenhagen with an MSc in Forest and Nature Management in 2014, and subsequently gained significant project administration experience with wildlife conservation charity TRAFFIC before joining CSER.
- [Sir Partha Dasgupta](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/partha-dasgupta/)
- [Jane Heal](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/jane-heal/)
- [Simon Goldhill](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/simon-goldhill/)
- [Ryan Carey](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/ryan-carey/) - Ryan works at the Future of Humanity Institute (and previously at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute), where he analyzes how advanced machine learning systems could be aligned with human values. He has a background in Bioinformatics and Theoretical Systems Biology, which he studied at Imperial College, and previously trained as a medical doctor at Monash
- [William MacAskill](https://www.cser.ac.uk/team/william-macaskill/) - Will is a co-founder of Giving What We Can, 80,000 Hours, and the Centre for Effective Altruism where he serves as CEO. An associate professor of philosophy at Oxford University, he previously he studied philosophy at Cambridge (B.A.) and Oxford (BPhil, DPhil), and was a Fulbright Scholar at Princeton. His research has two main focuses. The

## Categories

- [CSER news](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/category/cser-news/)
- [Event](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/category/event/)
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- [Publication](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/category/publication/)
- [Termly report & Newsletter](https://www.cser.ac.uk/work/category/report-newsletter/)

## Group

- [Co-founders](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?group=co-founders)
- [Visitors](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?group=visitors) - Visiting Fellows join CSER to work on a project or programme of activities. The aim is to provide a supportive environment for excellent research. Visitors are also valued for the new expertise they bring to our team, joining regular activities at the centre and across Cambridge.
- [Distinguished Fellows](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?group=distinguished-fellows)
- [Alumni](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?group=alumni)
- [Advisory Board](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?group=advisory-board)
- [Affiliates](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?group=affiliates) - Affiliated researchers are individuals recognised for their contribution to key areas of CSER research. They also provide a link to key stakeholders. Affiliates keep in regular contact with CSER team members in relevant areas: reviewing and discussing the latest developments in their field or pursuing new opportunities together.
- [Staff](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?group=staff)

## Project

- [Biology, Biotechnology and Global Catastrophic Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?project=biology-biotechnology-and-global-catastrophic-risks)
- [Risks from Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Technologies](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?project=risks-from-artificial-intelligence)
- [Global Systemic and Environmental Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?project=global-systemic-and-environmental-risk)
- [Governance and Global Justice](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?project=global-justice-and-global-catastrophic-risk)
- [A Science of Global Risk](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?project=a-science-of-global-risk)
- [Managing Extreme Technological Risks](https://www.cser.ac.uk/?project=managing-extreme-technological-risks)